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Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries September 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. Commodities retrace a part of gains on falling demand and rising supply... commodity price indices, January 2006=100. Grains. Energy. Non-Energy. Metals / Minerals.

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Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesSeptember 2008The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. Commodities retrace a part of gainson falling demand and rising supply... commodity price indices, January 2006=100 Grains Energy Non-Energy Metals / Minerals Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  3. ... while equity markets see a steeper economic downturn ahead DJI, DAX, TOPIX, and MSCI-Dev, indexes Jan 1-08 =100 Topix Dow Jones DAX MSCI-EM Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  4. Industrial countries

  5. U.S. Q2-GDP grows 3.3% poweredby external trade and the consumergrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net X Gvt PCE Invest dStok Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations.

  6. U.S. loses jobs for an eighthconsecutive month in Augustchange in non-farm payroll employment, ‘000 monthly change 3mma change Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

  7. U.S. inflation will increase for a timeafter commodity prices retreatHeadline and Core, CPI and PPI indexes, ch% saar PPI Headline CPI Headline PPI Core CPI Core Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  8. Japan Q2-GDP falls sharply on consumer and dissapointing exportsgrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points dStok PCE Invest Net X Source: Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.

  9. Japan’s housholds and businesssee darker times aheadTokyo consumer confidence [L], Tankan business conditions* [R] Tankan [R] Consumer confidence [L] Source: Cabinet Office and Bank of Japan.

  10. Japan’s export markets turn sluggish contribution to growth of Japan’s export volumes (%) Source: Bank of Japan, DECPG calculations

  11. Euro Area Q2 GDP falls 0.8% on drop in investment, weak exports growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Change in Stocks Government Net Exports Consumption Investment Source: EuroStat and DECPG calculations.

  12. European purchasing power hit hard by energy prices Retail sales volume, ch% y/y [R], HICP-energy, ch% y/y [L] France [R] Germany [R] Italy [R] HICP-Energy [L] Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.

  13. German exports continue decline in July-- in step with export orders export volumes and overseas factory orders, ch% 3mma Export orders Export volume Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.

  14. Industrial production

  15. Eurozone IP plummets on weaker internal and external demandreal IP, ch% (6m/6m, saar) Germany Eurozone France Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  16. Industrial production weakening in developing countries outside Chinareal IP, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries excluding China [left scale] China [right scale] Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  17. Export growth and fiscal stimuluscushion U.S. output from deeper decline real IP ch% (saar) IP 6m/6m IP 3m/3m Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  18. International trade

  19. OECD import volumes contract in the second quarter import volumes, ch% (y/y) [left], ch% saar [right] 12m/12m annual [L] 3m/3m saar [R] Source: NL CPB and Thomson/Datastream.

  20. China’s exports ease gradually into 2008 export volumes, ch% (y/y) [left], ch% saar [right] 3m/3m saar [R] 12m/12m annual [L] Source: NL CPB and Thomson/Datastream.

  21. LAC exports follow U.S. imports annual volume growth ch% (12m/12m) U.S. imports LAC exports Source: NL CPB and Thomson/Datastream.

  22. Oil prices

  23. Crude oil prices plunge on increasing concerns about demand $/bbl WTI Brent Dubai Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. Growth in U.S. oil demand million barells per day, 3mma (y/y) mb/d Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  25. WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013* on select dates in 2007-08 $/bbl Jul 3 2008 Jul 31 2008 SEP 9 2008 Dec 31 Aug 15 Jan 16 Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Corn, soybean, wheat prices decline on improving supply prospects c/bushel Soybeans Wheat Corn Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Metals prices fall on increasing concerns about demand Cu Zn $/ton Ni $/ton Copper Nickel Zinc Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. Gold prices drop on dollar appreciation $/toz $/euro Goldprice $/euro Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  30. International Finance

  31. Captial flows depressesd over July / August Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  32. Global equities continue decline Mature- and Emerging Market indices, ch% Mature Markets Emerging Markets Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  33. EM credit spreads widen in step with increasing risk aversion EMBIG spreads, basis points [L], Equity volatility index [R] EMBIG spreads [L] Vix index [R] Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  34. Currencies

  35. Dollar rebounds sharply vis-à-vis the euro USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] yen/USD USD/Euro (inverse) Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  36. European prospects dim... a key factor in the dollar’s reboundConsensus forecasts for 2008 GDP growth, by month prepared. Germany Euro Area USA Source: Consensus Economics Ltd.

  37. Dollar broadly higher against emerging market currencies LCU per USD indexes, Jan1 2008=100 [*increase = weaker LCU] Korean won Turkish lira Indonesian rupiah Philippine peso Brazilian reis Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  38. FOCUSSeptember 2008U.S. takeover of Fannie and Freddie...market implications

  39. Takeover of Fannie & Freddie followed by drop in mortgage rates... mortgage spreads in basis points 30-year fixed mortgage rate – Fed funds rate 30-year fixed mortgage rate – 30-year T-Note rate Source: Federal Reserve Governors.

  40. ... and lower yields on U.S. Agency debt yield on 30-year Fannie Mae bonds less Treasury bond (basis points) Source: Bloomberg Data Service.

  41. ...as fiscal outlook deteriorates U.S. federal debt held by the public, % of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office.

  42. The External Environment for Developing CountriesSeptember 2008The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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