Key findings – Climate Change
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 16

Key messages PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 133 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Key findings – Climate Change Presented by Edward S Ayensu on 4 th – 5 th September, 2009 @ the UNESCO International Conference on Broadcast Media & Climate Change: A Public Service Remit Paris, France. Key messages.

Download Presentation

Key messages

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Key messages

Key findings – Climate ChangePresented by Edward S Ayensuon 4th – 5th September, 2009@ the UNESCO International Conference on Broadcast Media & Climate Change: A Public Service RemitParis, France


Key messages

Key messages

  • The impacts of climate change are already being felt, and limiting warming by 2 degrees is a minimum

  • Limiting warming by 2 degrees will require 17Gt of abatement by 2020

  • This will require action from developed and developing countries

  • Substantial funding to the developing world (€65-100bn pa) is required over the next ten years

  • “Low carbon growth plans” are required to enable both the private and public funding flows to developing countries

1


About project catalyst

About Project Catalyst

  • Initiative of the ClimateWorks Foundation, a global, non-profit philanthropic foundation headquartered in San Francisco, California with a network of affiliated foundations in China, India, the U.S., and the European Union

  • Launched in May 2008 to provide analytical and policy support for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations on a post-Kyoto international climate agreement

  • Provide a forum where key participants in the global discussions can informally interact, conduct analyses, jointly problem solve, and contribute ideas and proposals to the formal UNFCCC process

  • Organized in working groups: mitigation, adaptation, technology, forestry, climate-compatible growth plans, and finance with a total of about 150 climate negotiators, senior government officials, representatives of multilateral institutions, business executives, and leading experts from over 30 countries. Analytical support from the international consulting firm, McKinsey & Company


Climate change is likely to disproportionately affect the countries least responsible

4

  • World

  • Dev’d world

  • Africa

  • Costal flooding

  • Droughts

  • Water Scarcity

  • Climate zone shifts

Climate change is likely to disproportionately affect the countries least responsible

  • Per capita GHG emission comparison1

  • MtCO2e per capital

  • Current development issues may be worsened by climate change

  • North Africa

    • Increased desertification

  • East Africa

    • Expansion of vector-borne disease transmission zone

  • West and Central Africa

    • Fast-urbanising cities at risk from coastal flooding

  • 7.5

  • 2005

  • 16.0

  • 3.3

  • 8.4

  • 2030

  • 17.8

  • Southern Africa

    • Heightened water stress

  • 2.9

1Including emissions from land-use and forestry

SOURCE: UNFCCC; UN ESA; IEA;


Key messages

The response to climate change must be rooted in development, but aligned with mitigation and adaptation objectives

Development

‘Low-carbon development’

‘Climate-resilient development’

‘Climate-compatible development’

Adaptation

‘Climate-proofed abatement’

Mitigation


Key messages

  • Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm

  • Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm

Probability of temperature increase under 2˚C

  • Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm

  • 70

Expected temperature increase

  • 60

  • 50

  • 40

  • 15-30%

  • 3.0˚C

  • 30

  • 20

  • 40-60%

  • 2.0˚C

  • 10

  • 70-85%

  • 1.8˚C

  • 0

  • 2005

  • 10

  • 15

  • 20

  • 25

  • 30

  • 35

  • 40

  • 45

  • 2050

Scientific evidence suggests that a 450ppm CO2e pathway with over-shoot gives a 40–60% probability to limit global warming to 2 degrees

Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability

GtCO2e per year

  • 450ppm is not safe – it has a 40–60% pro-bability of warming exceeding 2oC

  • Even 2oC will require signifi-cant investment in adaptation

Source:IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, Catalyst analysis


17 gt of reductions below business as usual in 2020 are required for a 450ppm 2 pathway

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

17 Gt of reductions below “Business as Usual” in 2020 are required for a 450ppm, 2°pathway

Global GHG emissions, Gt CO2e per year

Reference pathway

‘Business as Usual’

75

70

70

65

61

-35

Current proposals*

8-11 Gt abatement in 2020

60

-17

55

52

50

45

44

40

35

450ppm pathway(with overshoot)

0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Change relative to 1990

Percent

17

-7

*US – 17-28% below 2005 level by 2020; EU – 20-30% from 1990 level by 2020 (2.3 Gt); China - Reduce energy consumption per national income by 20% between 2005–10 (0.8Gt), and again between 2010-2015; Russia - stabilise emissions at ~30% below 1990 (0.7 Gt); Brazil - Reduce deforestation rates by 70% by 2017, equivalent to 4.8b tons less CO2 emitted cumulatively (0.7 Gt); Japan - Reduce 80% by 2050 from current levels (0.7 Gt); Canada - 20% reduction from 2006 level by 2020 (0.3 Gt); Mexico - Reduce emissions from 2002 levels by 50% by 2050 (0.3Gt), plus proposals from 12 smaller Annex 1 countries and South Korea. Assumptions have been made on timeline and pathway to calculate abatement in 2020

Source:McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis

6


Sufficient opportunities exist to achieve the 17 gt required to reach a 450ppm pathway

  • Breakdown by abatement type:

    • 9 Gt for terrestrial carbon

    • 6 Gt for energy efficiency

    • 4 Gt for low carbon energy supply

  • Breakdown by geographic location:

    • 5 Gt in developed country geographies

    • 14 Gt in developing country geographies

Sufficient opportunities exist to achieve the 17 Gt required to reach a 450ppm pathway

McKinsey global GHG abatement cost curve, 2020* (up to costs of €60/t, excluding transaction costs, 4% discount rate)

  • 70

  • 60

Solar PV

  • 50

Reduced intensive agriculture conversion

Solar conc.

  • 40

Organic soil restoration

Wind (high penetration)

Pastureland afforestation

Biomass

  • 30

Grassland management

Wind (low penetration)

Reduced deforestation

from pastureland conversion

  • 20

Nuclear

Reduced deforestation from

slash-and-burn agriculture conversion

  • 10

  • 0

10

15

20

19 Gt

Rice management

  • -10

Shift coal new build to gas

Abatement potential

Gt CO2e

  • -20

Electricity from landfill gas

New waste recycling

  • -30

  • -40

Cars ICE improvement

  • -50

  • -60

Cars aerodynamics improvement

Retrofit building envelope (commercial)

  • -70

  • -80

Lighting – switch incandescents

to LED (residential)

  • -90

  • -100

Source:McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0


Resulting responsibilities for developed countries

Resulting responsibilities for developed countries

Caps

Support on mitigation/ adaptation

Leadership on technology


The costs of adaptation are uncertain but are likely to be in the tens of billions per year

The costs of adaptation are uncertain but are likely to be in the tens of billions per year

27

Upper bound

Lower bound

Adaptation cost estimates,

€ bn pa, (2008 prices)

UNDP(2007)

70

89

Oxfam(2007)

41

0

41

UNFCCCGlobal estimate(2007)

36

99

135

World Bank(2006)

8

34

Source: Agrawala & Fankhauser (2008); Project Catalyst


Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation activities

Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation activities

60

40

20

0

*

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-20

-40

Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t)

Cost of abatement

€ / ton

Abatement potential

Gt CO2e

Best practice info, capacity building, loans

Offset market or grants

Grants and international cooperation


Including elements of adaptation the total financing need would be 65 100 bn per year 2010 2020

Including elements of adaptation, the total financing need would be €65-100 bn per year 2010-2020

35

Annual financing flows requirement for developing countries

€b on average p.a. 2010–20

~65–100

~10–20

55–80

5

5–30

10

Incremental costs

Higher financing costs

Transaction costs

Technology deployment

Total financing for abatement

Adaptation estimate

Total financing for developing countries

Source:McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; ‘Bosetti; Carraro; Massetti; Tavoni’; UNFCCC; Project Catalyst analysis


Key messages

Under a 25% target for developed countries, carbon markets could contribute significantly to developing country low carbon investment

Required abatement in 2020, Gt

4

Incremental costs paid for by developed countries

Required abatement for developed country target of 25%

Potential abatement in

developing countries

Support for incremental costs needed, e.g., concessional loans, grants, payments

17

5

Support needed for capacity building and loans for capital investment where required

3

6

Carbon credit purchases to meet 25% target

3

Remaining abatement feasible in developing countries (NPV negative) – may be financed by developed countries

Required abatementfor 450ppm pathway

Abatement feasible

within developed

countries

<60 €/t CO2e

Remaining abatement feasible in developing countries (NPV positive) – may be supported by developed countries

Abatement feasible in developing countries – may be financed by developed to meet target commitments

(e.g., via CDM)

Source:McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, team analysis


Key messages

Climate Compatible Growth Plans (CCGPs) are a way to identify and support developing country mitigation and adaptation actions

Focus: Development, mitigation + adaptation

Differentiation: Both developing + developed

CCGP (=climate compatible growth plans)

Time horizon: Long term and short/medium term

Process: Support, best practices, review, MRV

Content: Priorities, policies/measures and international support


The elements of an lcgp

The elements of an LCGP

National circumstances and current development plans

Assessment of vulnerability to climate change and how future climate change will affect it

Most recent GHG inventory

Long-term vision for an economy with low GHG emissions and low vulnerability to climate change

Plan for specific investments in making the economy and the infrastructure less vulnerable and measures to adapt existing infrastructure to the changing climate

GHG mitigation plan containing:

Projection of GHG emissions under BAU scenario for the most important economic sectors

Scenario the country can achieve without assistance

Scenario for which it would require international support.

NAMAs and NAPA’s the country wishes to undertake

Incremental cost of the individual NAMAs and NAPAs and all technology, financing and capacity building support needed to implement the plan.

Topics covered by a LCGP

1

Strategic plan to assist the country in shifting its development path to a low carbon and climate resilient economy and achieve sustainable development

2

Based on the socio-economic and development priorities of the country

3

Includes a strategic vision (long-term component) as well as that specific actions to be undertaken to get on a low carbon, climate resilient pathway (short and medium term component)


Key messages

Opportunities for leap-frogging exist which provide multiple advantages to support African development

  • Solar technology provides advantages for Africa

  • A Global Deal could . . .

  • Low levels of electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Off-grid solar technology is commercially available:

    • Cost-effective in remote areas

    • Faster deployment in remote areas

    • More reliable

    • Environmental and security benefit

  • Provide funding

  • Widen access to loans

  • Provide technology access

  • Support research

  • Overcome IP barriers

  • Develop institutions and processes


  • Login