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2013 Load Impact Evaluation Aggregator Managed Portfolio (AMP )

2013 Load Impact Evaluation Aggregator Managed Portfolio (AMP ). Steve Braithwait, Dan Hansen, and Dave Armstrong Christensen Associates Energy Consulting DRMEC Spring Workshop May 7, 2014. AMP Programs. Features of programs Ex-post load impacts ( 2013)

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2013 Load Impact Evaluation Aggregator Managed Portfolio (AMP )

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  1. 2013 Load Impact Evaluation Aggregator Managed Portfolio (AMP) Steve Braithwait, Dan Hansen, and Dave Armstrong Christensen Associates Energy Consulting DRMEC Spring Workshop May 7, 2014

  2. AMP Programs • Features of programs • Ex-post load impacts (2013) • Comparisons of ex-post and ex-ante nominated customers and load impacts

  3. AMP Features • Bilateral contracts between aggregators and PG&E or SCE • Nominated monthly capacity commitments made at beginning of season • Product-type options • Day-ahead (DA) or Day-of (DO) notice • Variety of event windows (e.g., 1-4; 1-5; 1-6) • Local or System (PG&E)

  4. Nominated Customers by Utility & Year(by DA & DO Notice)

  5. Nominated Customers, by Industry Type

  6. Sensitivity of Load Impact Estimates to Weather Variable Specification (PG&E)

  7. Actual and Predicted Loads – Average Event-Like Non-Event (SCE)

  8. Ex-PostLoad Impacts (2011 – 13)Typical Event – Average Event-Hour (MW)

  9. Comparison of Previous Ex-Ante toCurrent Ex-Post and Ex-Ante[AMP]

  10. Key Factors in Ex-Ante Changes • PG&E adjusted expected AMP aggregate load impacts for 2014 by 10 to 15% below capacity commitments, leading to lower assumed nominated customers than in previous ex-ante forecast • SCE anticipates movement of AMP-DA contract to CBP-DA, and shifting less responsive customer accounts from AMP-DO to CBP-DO

  11. Questions? • Contact – Steve Braithwait or Dan Hansen, Christensen Associates Energy ConsultingMadison, Wisconsin • Steve@CAEnergy.com • Danh@CAEnergy.com • 608-231-2266

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