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Modeling as a tool for the IR - TERI PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modeling as a tool for the Indian Railways -TERI. April 8-9, 2005. About TERI ... Share of Railways should be increased as far as possible ...

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Modeling as a tool for the IR - TERI

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Modeling as a tool for the indian railways l.jpg

Modeling as a tool for the Indian Railways

-TERI

April 8-9, 2005


About teri l.jpg

About TERI


The development energy sustainability nexus l.jpg

The development-energy-sustainability nexus


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Energy-economy linkage

  • Drivers of energy demand

    • Population (total, rural/urban distribution)

    • Overall/ sectoral GDP

  • Per capita energy consumption

    • India: ~400 kgoe/capita; US: >8000 kgoe/capita

  • Energy intensity: final energy consumption per unit of GDP


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kgoe

Energy intensity curve


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TRANSPORT SECTOR -OVERVIEW


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Trends in energy use

  • Industry & transport sector energy requirements – main concern areas

  • Impact on petroleum imports & power requirements


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Passenger and freight movement projections (BAU)


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Modal Split in the Transport Sector


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Concerns in the sector

  • Crude import dependence would increase to 94% by 2030 - IEA projections

  • Transport sector 2nd largest consumer of commercial energy

    • Largest consuming sector of oil products

    • Limited scope to move to alternative fuels

  • Inefficient energy trajectory for the transport sector

  • Increasing GHG & local pollutants


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Towards a sustainable transport sector

  • Share of Railways should be increased as far as possible

  • Share of public transport to be increased

  • Efficiency of all transportation options should increase

  • Emission loading must reduce


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Transport sector issues

  • National Transport Policy Committee Recommendation

    • 72% freight & 60% passenger traffic movement recommended by rail

    • Consumers preference for door-to-door movement

  • Railways – larger social welfare dimension

    • Cross-subsidization

    • Need for investments on loss making routes

    • Scope for freight modifications/ routings need to be judiciously analysed & modified


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Way forward for IR

  • Increase rail based movement as far as possible

  • Increase turnaround of wagons / improve utilization of dedicated wagons

  • Examine scope for freight rationalization

  • Enhance interconnectivity & multi-modalism

  • Improving rail technology and capacity augmentation


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TERI’S activities in the modeling & transport areas


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TERI’s experience in modeling

  • Models

    • Demand forecasting (EViews)

    • Accounting Frameworks (LEAP)

    • Optimisation softwares (MARKAL, GAMS LP models)

    • Analytical tools/data analysis


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Some recent projects

  • Modeling projects

    • CIL Study of Coal in Indian Energy Scene

    • Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Study (ALGAS)

    • National Energy Map – Vision 2020 (using MARKAL)

  • Transport sector studies

    • Study on the Potential for Sustainable Tourism Development in the Darjeeling Hill Area

    • Transportation Economics and Environmental Issues that influence product strategy (TELCO)

    • Urban transport, Energy and Environment – A case of Delhi

    • An Indo-British Partnership: Sustainable Transport in Large Indian Cities


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COLPLAN – A Coal Transportationmodel


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Objectives of COLPLAN

  • Examine the use of available coal (indigenous and imported) at the existing power plants under the BAU case

  • Assess the competitiveness of coal from various sources (imported vs domestic coal) at each of the locations

  • Analyze the existing linkages to see if these are most optimal (least cost for the energy system) and examine possibilities of alternative linkages by developing alternative scenarios


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Structure of COLPLAN model


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Features of the Coal Transportation model

  • GAMS (Generalized Algebraic Modeling Systems) based static LP model

  • Optimizes system cost for coal utilization by the Indian power sector

  • Module added to study ash utilization by Indian cement sector


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Scenarios

  • BAU

  • Free linkage

  • Free run

  • Restricted Linkages & grade slippage


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Non-optimality of linkages

  • The model indicated significant reduction in the freight component through alternative linkages

    • CIL to re-examine the viability of the current linkages

    • Capacity release for IR -> gains through moving other commodities


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Results (cont.)

  • CIL to direct more investment to the Western sector coalfields, Singrauli and Sohagpur coalfields

  • Overall benefits to the economy with improvement in quality of supplies

    • Gains to CIL with move to superior grades of coal

    • Consumers would benefit by savings in coal movement

    • Quality improvements essential for CIL to guard against the loss of its markets to imported coal


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Some results from the ash module


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Objective

  • Hypothesis : Fly ash can be used effectively to:

    • reduce environmental damage

    • provide economic benefits to its users especiallycement producers

  • Examine whether flyash should be charged, subsidized or continue being provided free of cost

  • At what delivered cost of ash would it still be economical to produce PPC (based only on cost of coal displaced)


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Data & Assumptions

  • All data & assumptions for 2001/02

  • Demand centres: Individual power plants & 9 cement plant clusters

  • Linkages as per SLC (Short term)

  • Actual production PPC : OPC :: 65% : 35%

  • Average delivered cost of ash: Rs 600/ton

  • Coal imports max 20 MT


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Economic benefits with higher PPC production: model results

  • Shifts towards PPC production lead to reduction in overall system costs

    • With no constraints on OPC/PPC production, model shifts all production to PPC

    • With new cement capacity to be created (30 MT), PPC remains the only choice for all the new capacity

  • Additionally environmental benefits due to decrease in CO2 emissions 


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Monetary benefits in system costs


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Scope for negotiation of ash prices

With judicious pricing both power & cement plants can be gainers


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Preference towards superior grades of coal

  • Reduction in coal requirement results in adjustments of coal off-take

    • B-D grades increase

    • E-G grades decrease

    • A grade always utilized

       domestic coal industry needs to review its coal production & pricing policies directed towards enhancing supplies of better quality coal as this would lead to overall system benefits


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PPC production – a “win-win-win” option

  • If priced right, all parties could benefit

    • Power plants – cost saving on ash handling & disposal

    • Cement plants – save on account of cost of coal displaced and limestone saved

    • Environment – reducing air pollution due to particulates and one tonne of clinker saved is one tonne of CO2 saved


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Thought……Is it worthwhile for the Railways to consider using the dedicated coal wagons for moving back ash from the power plants to cement plants on the way?


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Thought…….Can freight rates be modified to make Railways more competitive for some core commodities along major O-Ds?


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Scope for Collaborative Projects


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Possible areas for co-operation

  • Demand forecasting – to plan for infrastructure requirements in the future

  • Freight rationalization studies - to capture markets which Railways may be losing

  • Efficiency analysis/ Energy audits


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Thank you!


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