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MOVEX Demand Planning Interact Feb 22 nd - 24 th 2005. Steen Jorgensen Solution Design Manager, Intentia Americas [email protected] Agenda. Introduction

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Movex demand planning interact feb 22 nd 24 th 2005 l.jpg
MOVEX Demand PlanningInteract Feb 22nd- 24th 2005

  • Steen Jorgensen

  • Solution Design Manager, Intentia Americas

  • [email protected]


Agenda l.jpg
Agenda

  • Introduction

  • MOVEX Demand Planning- Components- Datasets- Manual forecasting- Statistical forecasting- Collaborative demand planning- Segregation of event demand

  • Q&A


Supply chain management l.jpg

Supply Chain Management (SCM)

Movex Supply Chain Execution

Distribution Order Processing

Inventory Statistics

Lot and Allocation Control

Transportation Management

Warehouse Management

Warehouse Integration

PKMS Warehouse Management

Movex Supply Chain Planning

Demand Planner

Supply Chain Planner

Global CTP

Multi-Site Planner

MSP Viewer

Yield Optimizer

MerciaLincs Demand Planner

MerciaLincs Strategic Inventory Planner

MerciaLincs Internet Demand Planner

Resource and Material Planning

Distribution Requirements Planning

Forecasting

Master Production Scheduling

Material Planning

Rough-Cut Capacity Planning

Advanced Production Planner

APP Viewer

Supply Chain Management


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= Intentia Solution

Suppliers

Customers

Product Plans

Overall Goals

Investment Plans

Suppliers:

Capacities

Lead Times

Prices

Statistical Forecast

Manual Forecasts

Collaborative

Demand Planning

Forecast

Constraint-Based Supply Planning

Capacity

Adjusted

Forecasts

Consensus

Demand Planning

Supplier Agreements

Sourcing Rules

Production Plan

Consensus Forecast

Transporter

Wholesaler

Retailer

Component

Manufacturer

Finished Goods

Manufacturer

Tactical Planning Process

Strategic Management

Sales Management

Tactical Management

Demand Planning

Supply Chain Planner

Business Performance Measurement

Operational Planning

Execution



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Pain

Pain

Pain

Pain

Pain

Pain

Pain

Root Cause: Poor Demand Planning

Stocks of Wrong Raw & Finished Goods

Root Cause and Effects

Expired Stock

Poor Customer Service Levels

Obsolete stock

Too Much Capital and Space Tied Up

Stock Outs on Main Product Lines

Non-balanced Budget

Required Safety Stock Levels too High

Risk of Being De-listed by Major Customers

Rush Orders and Overtime


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What is Demand Planning?

  • More then just statistical forecast

  • More than just someone’s best guess

  • More than just a look at history

  • It’s a combination of qualitative and quantitative inputThe sum is greater than the parts!!!


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MOVEX Demand Planning Components

  • MOVEX Sales Budgeting- Manual / Statistical budgets

  • MOVEX Repetitive Forecasting- Manual / Statistical forecasts

  • Demand Planner- Multi level forecasting- Market Intelligence entry (i.e. event planning, Phase in, Phase out)- Collaborative demand planning

  • Statistics


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MOVEX Repetitive forecasting

  • Production forecasting- Manual entry (FCS350)- Statistical calculation (FCS001 / FCS100)- Forecast families (FCS400)- MDS versions

  • Dataset forecasting- Manual entry (OSS420)- Statistical calculation (FCS440)- 6 level forecasting hierarchy- Planning entity (RPS045)- Distribution templates (OSS422)- Budget versions



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Evolution of datasets in MOVEX

  • Sales statistics

  • Manual Budgeting

  • Statistical Budgeting (basic methods)

  • Statistical Budgeting (all methods)

  • Demand Planner

Demand Planner has enabled the use of datasets in repetitive forecasting.


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Dataset 2

Dataset 1

Cust no Cust grp Country Qty

C100 CG1 US 50

C200 CG2 MEX 40

Country SKU Item grp Qty

US 1234 AAA 20

US 1111 AAA 30

MEX 3333 BBB 40

MOVEX Dataset

Statistics file

Cust no Cust grp Country SKU Item grp Qty …

C100 CG1 US 1234 AAA 20

C100 CG1 US 1111 AAA 30

C200 CG2 MEX 3333 BBB 40


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Changed

Affected

Not affected

Adjustment & Manipulation of Dataset Forecast

Middle Out

Bottom Up

Top Down

Country

Customer

Item Group

Item number

User-defined multi-level structure

View at both aggregated and detailed level



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The “Baseline” Process

  • The calculated forecast (MFCFOR) forms at all times a baseline for the forecasting.

  • The changes made in DMP (MFMADJ) are put on top of calculated forecast (MFCFOR) adding up to a “Total forecast.”

  • If the calculated forecast (MFCFOR) is altered in Movex due to changes in the historical demand (UCDEMA), the changes made in DMP (MFMADJ) are put on top of the new calculated forecast (MFCFOR) - the “Total forecast” is consequently changed as well.

  • Manual forecast (MFMFOR) overrules the calculated forecast (MFCFOR) and adjustments (MFMADJ).




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Paper & Faxes

Telephone Messages

Unsynchronized Spreadsheets

Separate Files

Consolidating and Manipulating Plans

Disadvantages of spreadsheets:

  • Prone to errors - people add & delete cells, columns, etc.

  • Complex as keeping track of different spreadsheet copies and versions is a nightmare

  • Gathering and consolidating data is a time consuming process

  • No integration with Movex

Sales Office / Account Manager


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Movex

SCP

Demand Planners

Supply planning

Market intelligence entry

MRP/DRP

Production forecast

Client-server architecture for a distributed workflow

Demand Planner Manager


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Step G: Demand plan used to drive manufacturing and distribution

Step A:Forecasts are imported to DMP from the Business Engine

Step G

Step A

Step F: Forecastupdated on Movex

Business Engine

Step B:Forecasts are distributed and updated in Demand Planner by forecasters

Step F

Step B

Step E

Step C

Step E:Consensus

forecast - oneconsolidated forecast

Step C:Forecasts are reviewed and

accepted by central administrator (or planning team)

Step D

Step D:Planning simulations on initial forecast in Supply Chain Planner (optional)

Demand Planning Workflow

Central Demand Planner

Forecaster








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MOVEX Demand PlanningValue Proposition


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Business Value from MOVEX Demand Planning

  • Increased forecast accuracy

  • Consensus forecast

  • Reduced lost sales

  • Faster and easier planning cycle

  • Minimized obsolete stocks

  • Aggressive control of new product introductions, promotions and sales


Movex supply chain management l.jpg

= Intentia Solution

Suppliers

Customers

Transporter

Wholesaler

Retailer

Component

Manufacturer

Finished Goods

Manufacturer

MOVEX Supply Chain Management

Strategic Planning

Professional Planner

Supply Chain Planner

Opportunity Analyzer

Tactical Planning

Supply Chain Planner

Demand Planning

Operational Planning

Yield Optimizer

Procurement

Resource & Material Planning

MSP / APP

Global CTP

Execution

Production

Production Planner

Sales Mgmt.

e-Sales

Procurement



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