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Weather-Monsoon Foreshadow 2015

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Weather-Monsoon Foreshadow 2015

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  1. Monsoon 2015 Foreshadow

  2. 102% OF LPA (+/-4%)NORMALJUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER(LPA = 887mm)

  3. PROBABALITY OF MONSOON

  4. EXPECTED NORMAL VS FORECAST 300 289 LPA 173 174 164 167 261 Forecast 258

  5. JUNE RAINFALL PROBABALITY 107% of LPA Normal LPA is 164 mm

  6. JULY RAINFALL PROBABALITY 104% of LPA Normal LPA is 289 mm

  7. AUGUST RAINFALL PROBABALITY 99% of LPA Normal LPA is 261 mm

  8. SEPTEMBER RAINFALL PROBABALITY 96% of LPA Normal LPA is 173 mm

  9. MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER Poor Signal Rainfall Departure:+2% Kerala, Konkan and Goa, Punjab, Haryana, west UP will receive good amounts of rainfall. Parts of Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema and south Karnataka are at some risk Poor Signal

  10. MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE Poor Signal Rainfall Departure:+7% Country as a whole will receive good amounts of rainfall indicating timely onset Poor Signal

  11. MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JULY Poor Signal Rainfall Departure:+4% Normal rainfall expected Poor Signal

  12. MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY AUGUST Poor Signal Rainfall Departure:-1% Slightly less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over southern peninsular India Poor Signal

  13. MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY SEPTEMBER Poor Signal Rainfall Departure:-4% Little less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over Central and southern India Poor Signal

  14. EXPECTED PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES • A cyclonic vortex is expected to move along the west coast in the last week of April to first week of May causing rainfall all along the west coast and Gujarat • In second week of May, another spell of rainfall over parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra is expected • Pre-Monsoon activity is expected to be frequent and strong through out May in North and North-East India • Monsoon onset is likely to be strong and early

  15. PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES Please enter presentation mode(full screen) for animation to play

  16. PAST FORECAST PERFORMANCE No Signal No Signal No Signal No Signal No Signal No Signal

  17. Thank you

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