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Geographical Spatial Analysis. 2004 CAS Seminar on Ratemaking. Graham Masters. Winterthur Insurance / TS Pricing. List of Contents. Scope Methodology Results Benefits. Phase 1: Define New Zones

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Geographical Spatial Analysis

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Geographical Spatial Analysis

2004 CAS Seminar on Ratemaking

Graham Masters

Winterthur Insurance / TS Pricing


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List of Contents

  • Scope

  • Methodology

  • Results

  • Benefits


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  • Phase 1: Define New Zones

    • The GLM fitted to produce the current tariff was taken as a base (1999-2001). The analysis was carried out on premiums

    • The analysis was carried out at the level of 5-digit zip code (lowest level)

    • The analysis did not include any other geographical rating factor apart from the 5-digit zip code (e.g. province)

  • Phase 2: Estimate Zone Coefficients

    • Data from 2002 and Jan-June 2003 was used to assess the new groups of zones


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Example

Distance Methods

D1:

D2:

D3:


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Results – Unsmoothed residuals


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Results – Smoothed residuals

10 zones, distance method 1


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Results – Smoothed residuals

10 zones, distance method 2


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Results – Smoothed residuals

10 zones, distance method 3


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Zoning Coefficients from the Model with 50 zones

Distance Method 1


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Zoning Coefficients from the Model with 25 zones

Distance Method 1


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Results – Unsmoothed residuals


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Results - New Zone Coefficients

10 zones, distance method 1


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Results - New Zone Coefficients

10 zones, distance method 1

10 zones, distance method 3

10 zones, distance method 2


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Results - New Zone Coefficients

10 zones, distance method 1

10 zones, distance method 3


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Current zone coefficients (Tariff 2nd Review)

Catalunya & Andorra

Barcelona


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Results - Smoothed Residuals – Phase 1, distance method 1

Catalunya & Andorra


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Results - New Zone Coefficients – Phase 2 , distance method 1

Catalunya & Andorra


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Current zone coefficients (Tariff 2nd Review)


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Results – Smoothed residuals – Phase 1 , distance method 1


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Results - New Zone Coefficients – Phase 2 , distance method 1


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