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PRESENTATION ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) . Department of Economic Planning and Development (JPKE) Prime Minister’s Office 13 Ogos 2007. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT. INTRODUCTION CONCEPTS AND DEFINITION GDP MEASUREMENT COMPILATION PRACTICE IN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

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PRESENTATION ON

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(GDP)

Department of Economic Planning and Development (JPKE)

Prime Minister’s Office

13 Ogos 2007


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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

  • INTRODUCTION

  • CONCEPTS AND DEFINITION

  • GDP MEASUREMENT

  • COMPILATION PRACTICE IN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

  • USERS AND USES


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INTRODUCTION

COMPILATION OF GDP FOR BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

Compiling Agency :

National Accounts Section (NAS)

Department of Statistics (DOS)

Department of Economic Planning and Development (JPKE)

Prime Minister’s Office


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INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS

  • A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS (SNA)

  • a comprehensive guide for the compilation of GDP

  • latest : 1993 SNA

  • regional and international comparability

  • - concepts and definitions

  • - methodology

  • - classifications


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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

  • Definition :

  • a measurement in monetary terms of all the achievements of an economy

  • within a given period of time, generally a year

  • in the forms of production of all kinds of goods and services


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GDP MEASUREMENT

PRODUCTION OR OUTPUT APPROACH

- the sum of the value added of the various industries in the economy

EXPENDITURE APPROACH

- the sum of consumption expenditure, investment and net exports

  • INCOME APPROACH

    • the sum of the factor incomes, namely compensation of employees and gross operating surplus


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GDP MEASUREMENT APPROACHES

Production

GDP =  GVA

GDP – Gross Domestic Product GVA – Gross value Added

CE – Compensation of Employees CFC – Consumption of Fixed Capital OS – Operating Surplus

C – Consumption I - Investment X – Exports M - Imports

Expenditure

GDP = C + I + (X – M)

Income

GDP = CE + CFC +OS


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CURRENT AND CONSTANT PRICES(Nominal and Real Prices)

  • CURRENT PRICES

  • measured at prevailing prices during the year

  • the changes over the years would also include the effect of the changes in prices

  • not a proper measure of real change in production

  • CONSTANT PRICES

  • the effect of prices eliminated

  • measured at given prices of particular ‘base year’

  • use price indices as deflator or volume indicators as extrapolator


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GDP COMPILATION PRACTICE IN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

GDP compilation – first started in 1978

Current GDP compilation :

  • Consistent with 1993 SNA

  • Base year : 2000

  • By 2 approaches : Production & Expenditure

  • Annual and Quarterly

  • At current and constant prices


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COMPILATION PROCESS

PRODUCTION APPROACH

The sum of gross value added (GVA), which is derived by deducting the value of goods and services used in the production (IC) from the value of goods and services produced (GO)

GDP

GDP =  GVA, where GVA = GO - IC


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PRODUCTION APPROACH

INDUSTRY

Group of enterprises/establishments engaged in the same, or similar economic activity

CLASSIFICATION

International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC, Rev. 3)


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Mining

Manufacturing

Construction

Electricity and Water

Transport & Communication

Trade (Wholesale & Retail Trade, Restaurants & Hotels)

Finance

Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings

Private & Business Services

Government Services

CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

SERVICES SECTOR


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PRIVATE SECTOR BUSINESSES

  • Economic Census (EC)

  • Quarterly Survey of Businesses (QSB)

  • Data on production from relevant government departments and other agencies

SOURCES OF DATA

GOVERNMENT SECTOR

  • Government accounts data

HOUSEHOLD SECTOR

  • Population Census data

  • Household Expenditure Survey data


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ECONOMIC CENSUS

  • Conducted every 5 years

  • Covers all registered businesses operating in Brunei Darussalam

  • The last Economic Census in 2002 :

- 2000 & 2001 data

- Publication : (i) Preliminary Report

(ii) 2002 Economic Census Report

  • The next census in 2007 : 2005 & 2006 data


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ECONOMIC CENSUS QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Principal business activity & other business activity

2. Location and branches

3. Number of employees and salary

4. Sales/receipts/income

5. Expenditure – Operating & Non-operating

6. Inventory/stock

7. Capital expenditure - Fixed assets

Data analysed & processed to compute GVA for each business and summed up to get GVA for private sector


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QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BUSINESSES QUESTIONNAIRE

  • Conducted on a sample basis

  • All medium & large businesses and a selection of small businesses

  • Conducted every quarter

- Uses brief questionnaire :

1. Principal business activity

2. Number of employees and salary

3. Sales/receipts/income


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Rely on ratios and estimation techniques for GVA computation

“Straightforward” GVA computation

CENSUS vs. SURVEY DATA

CENSUS

SURVEY

Complete coverage

Sample basis

Comprehensive data

Limited data

Time consuming in processing the data

Quick to process


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GDP BY EXPENDITURE

To validate the estimates by production

GDP BY EXPENDITURE

= Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE)

+ Government Consumption Expenditure (GCE)

+ Gross Domestic Capital Formation (GDCF) (Construction, Machinery & Equipment & Change in stock)

+ Exports of goods and services (X)

- Imports of goods and services (M)


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DATA SOURCES

Exp. item

Source of data

Household Expenditure Survey

PCE

Government budget and actual expenditure

GCE

GDCF

Construction

Government expenditure for gov’t construction Economic census / Building permits for private construction

Machinery & equipment

External trade statistics

 stock

Economic census

X-M (Goods)

External trade statistics

X-M (Services)

Balance of payments


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USERS AND USES

Economic planners and policy makers

- monitoring the economy; economic planning & development

- forecasting and simulation

Regional & international organisations

- economic structure & performance comparison

Business

- financial markets, market research, contracts

Academicians

- research and analysis

General public


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GDP BY PRODUCTION

72 %

27 %

68 %

31 %

64 %

35 %

61 %

38 %

60 %

39 %


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GDP BY EXPENDITURE

BND million

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


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THANK YOU

Q & A


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