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Vijay Gabale (07305004) Ashutosh Dhekne (07305016) Piyush Masrani (07305017) Sumedh Tirodkar (07305020) Tanmay Mande (07305051). Demand Forecasting in Indian Retail Industry. Applied Economics Course Project. Motivation.

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Vijay Gabale (07305004)

Ashutosh Dhekne (07305016)

Piyush Masrani (07305017)

Sumedh Tirodkar (07305020)

Tanmay Mande (07305051)

Demand Forecasting in Indian Retail Industry

Applied Economics Course Project


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Motivation

  • The A.T. Kearney Global Retail Development Index shows India on the top of the list.

  • Multi-outlet retail concept has gained acceptance. A report by Images Retail predicts Over 400 malls by 2010

  • Competition: Survival of the fittest!

  • Forecasting of demand!


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Indian Retail Industry

  • Retail - The sale of goods or commodities in small quantities directly to consumers.

  • Retailers in India

    • Shoppers’ Stop

    • Westside (Trent)

    • Pantaloon (Big Bazaar)

    • Lifestyle

    • RPG Retail (Foodworld, Musicworld)

    • Crossword


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Challenges in Demand Forecasting

  • Scale of forecast

  • Erratic demands

  • Introducing new goods

  • Changing price

  • Restocking period

  • How do we resolve them?


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Techniques

  • Judgmental

    • Unaided

    • Delphi

    • Expert Systems

    • Simulated interactions

  • Quantitative

    • Extrapolation

    • Data mining – Least Square Regression


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Existing Surveys

  • The Indian Retail Report 2007 released by Kamal Nath on January, 09, 2007

  • The India Retail Report 2007, Amitabh Taneja, Chief Convenor of India Retail Forum

  • An article by “Tata Strategic Management Group” in September, 2006

    • India has huge population

    • The forecasting plays major role in quantifying trends

    • Sophisticated tools or expert analysts


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Our Survey

  • We visited Haiko, a division of the Lakewood Malls Pvt. Ltd. at Hiranandani Gardens.

  • Mr. Gaurav Purohit (Business Manager)

  • Haiko

    • Small scale retailer

    • Do not use sophisticated tools but historical data to analyze trends


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What are the key aspects of a forecasting exercise?

  • Beginning Early

  • Taking expert inputs

  • The tools used for demand forecasting cannot replace domain expertise

  • Thinking of multiple solutions

  • Being on the field


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Questionnaire

  • How is the forecasting done?

    • Past data and Targeted growth

    • Tastes and trends are subjective terms

  • What are some tips for developing a forecasting model for new product?

    • try out different forecasting techniques

  • What is the period of time in the future for which you do forecasting?

    • a six monthly basis, place orders at 2 months in advance

  • Could you share with us an example story?


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Questionnaire

  • Does the volume of sale have a bearing on the rack space you allocate to a good?

    • They have a fixed rack space and that dictates how much they can stock.

  • For all the analysis do you use software?

  • Could you relate a failure story?

  • The detailed interview in report!


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Conclusion

  • The increasing competition in Indian Retail Sector is compelling retailers to use demand forecasting tools.

  • Retailers who have their own brand labels use the forecasting techniques of the kind we study in theory.

  • On the other hand, small scale retailers can employ qualitative techniques on the historical data and considering the behavior trends in the market.


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References

  • Images retail. http://www.imagesretail.com/india retail report.htm.

  • Tata Strategic Management Group. Retail revolution. http://www.tata.com/tata strategic/articles/20060925 retail.htm.

  • A.T. Kearney. Global retail development index (GRDI) 2004-2007. http://www.atkearney.com/.

  • Kamal Nath. India retail report. http://commerce.nic.in/pressrelease/pressrelease detail.asp?id=1895.

  • Namita Singh, S. Jason Olasky, Kellie S. Cluff, and Jr. William F. Welch. Supply chain demand forecasting and planning. http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/7080026-fulltext.html.

  • Software & Consulting Services to the Consumer Goods Industry. Demand forecasting model. http://www.ibsw.com/demand.htm.


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