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Demand Forecasting in Indian Retail Industry

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Vijay Gabale (07305004) Ashutosh Dhekne (07305016) Piyush Masrani (07305017) Sumedh Tirodkar (07305020) Tanmay Mande (07305051). Demand Forecasting in Indian Retail Industry. Applied Economics Course Project. Motivation.

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slide1
Vijay Gabale (07305004)

Ashutosh Dhekne (07305016)

Piyush Masrani (07305017)

Sumedh Tirodkar (07305020)

Tanmay Mande (07305051)

Demand Forecasting in Indian Retail Industry

Applied Economics Course Project

motivation
Motivation
  • The A.T. Kearney Global Retail Development Index shows India on the top of the list.
  • Multi-outlet retail concept has gained acceptance. A report by Images Retail predicts Over 400 malls by 2010
  • Competition: Survival of the fittest!
  • Forecasting of demand!
indian retail industry
Indian Retail Industry
  • Retail - The sale of goods or commodities in small quantities directly to consumers.
  • Retailers in India
    • Shoppers’ Stop
    • Westside (Trent)
    • Pantaloon (Big Bazaar)
    • Lifestyle
    • RPG Retail (Foodworld, Musicworld)
    • Crossword
challenges in demand forecasting
Challenges in Demand Forecasting
  • Scale of forecast
  • Erratic demands
  • Introducing new goods
  • Changing price
  • Restocking period
  • How do we resolve them?
techniques
Techniques
  • Judgmental
    • Unaided
    • Delphi
    • Expert Systems
    • Simulated interactions
  • Quantitative
    • Extrapolation
    • Data mining – Least Square Regression
existing surveys
Existing Surveys
  • The Indian Retail Report 2007 released by Kamal Nath on January, 09, 2007
  • The India Retail Report 2007, Amitabh Taneja, Chief Convenor of India Retail Forum
  • An article by “Tata Strategic Management Group” in September, 2006
    • India has huge population
    • The forecasting plays major role in quantifying trends
    • Sophisticated tools or expert analysts
our survey
Our Survey
  • We visited Haiko, a division of the Lakewood Malls Pvt. Ltd. at Hiranandani Gardens.
  • Mr. Gaurav Purohit (Business Manager)
  • Haiko
    • Small scale retailer
    • Do not use sophisticated tools but historical data to analyze trends
what are the key aspects of a forecasting exercise
What are the key aspects of a forecasting exercise?
  • Beginning Early
  • Taking expert inputs
  • The tools used for demand forecasting cannot replace domain expertise
  • Thinking of multiple solutions
  • Being on the field
questionnaire
Questionnaire
  • How is the forecasting done?
    • Past data and Targeted growth
    • Tastes and trends are subjective terms
  • What are some tips for developing a forecasting model for new product?
    • try out different forecasting techniques
  • What is the period of time in the future for which you do forecasting?
    • a six monthly basis, place orders at 2 months in advance
  • Could you share with us an example story?
questionnaire10
Questionnaire
  • Does the volume of sale have a bearing on the rack space you allocate to a good?
    • They have a fixed rack space and that dictates how much they can stock.
  • For all the analysis do you use software?
  • Could you relate a failure story?
  • The detailed interview in report!
conclusion
Conclusion
  • The increasing competition in Indian Retail Sector is compelling retailers to use demand forecasting tools.
  • Retailers who have their own brand labels use the forecasting techniques of the kind we study in theory.
  • On the other hand, small scale retailers can employ qualitative techniques on the historical data and considering the behavior trends in the market.
references
References
  • Images retail. http://www.imagesretail.com/india retail report.htm.
  • Tata Strategic Management Group. Retail revolution. http://www.tata.com/tata strategic/articles/20060925 retail.htm.
  • A.T. Kearney. Global retail development index (GRDI) 2004-2007. http://www.atkearney.com/.
  • Kamal Nath. India retail report. http://commerce.nic.in/pressrelease/pressrelease detail.asp?id=1895.
  • Namita Singh, S. Jason Olasky, Kellie S. Cluff, and Jr. William F. Welch. Supply chain demand forecasting and planning. http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/7080026-fulltext.html.
  • Software & Consulting Services to the Consumer Goods Industry. Demand forecasting model. http://www.ibsw.com/demand.htm.
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