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Intelligent Use of LAPS. By Ed Szoke 20 May 1999. LAPS. A system designed to: Exploit all available data sources Create analyzed and forecast grids Build products for specific forecast applications Use advanced display technology …All within the local weather office.

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Intelligent use of laps l.jpg
Intelligent Use of LAPS

By

Ed Szoke

20 May 1999


Slide2 l.jpg
LAPS

A system designed to:

  • Exploit all available data sources

  • Create analyzed and forecast grids

  • Build products for specific forecast applications

  • Use advanced display technology

    …All within the local weather office



Strategic plan for the modernization and associated restructuring of the national weather service l.jpg

“THE CONCEPT OF THE LOCAL DATA BASE IS CENTRAL TO FUTURE OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

-Strategic plan for the modernization and associated restructuring of the National Weather Service


Data acquisition and quality control l.jpg

Data Acquisition and OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”Quality Control


Local data l.jpg
Local Data OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Local Data may be defined as that data not entering into the National Database

  • Sources

    • Highway Departments

      • Many States with full or partial networks

    • Agricultural Networks

      • State run, sometimes private

    • Universities

      • Experimental observations

    • Private Industry

      • Environmental monitoring


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Problems with Local Data OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Poor Maintenance

  • Poor Communications

  • Poor Calibration

    Result ----------------> Inaccurate,

    Irregular,

    Observations


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Quality Control Methods OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Gross Error Checks

    Rough Climatological Estimates

  • Statistical Models

    Buddy Checking

  • Dynamical Models

    Use of meso-beta models


Requirements for qc scheme l.jpg
Requirements for QC Scheme OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Runnable in weather offices on small workstations

  • Adaptable to ongoing model improvement

  • Adaptable to daily variations in model skill


Requirements for qc scheme cont l.jpg
Requirements for QC Scheme OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”(cont.)

SOLUTION: The KALMAN FILTER

  • Adaptable to small workstations

  • Accommodates models of varying complexity

  • Model error is a dynamic quantity within the filter, thus the scheme adjusts as model skill varies


Laps overview l.jpg
LAPS Overview OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • LAPS Grid

    • Horizontal Resolution = 10 km

    • Vertical Resolution = 50 mb

    • Size: 61 x 61 x 21


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LAPS Analysis Software OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Analysis package has been in each version of WFO-Advanced delivered to PRC and NWS

  • LAPS in current build (AWIPS 4.2) is primitive

  • Awaiting requirements for build 5.0, such as resizeability, relocatability, advanced quality control techniques, etc.


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Sources of LAPS Information OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • The LAPS homepage http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov

    provides access to many links including:

  • What is in AWIPS LAPS?

    http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/LAPS/AWIPS_WFO_page.htm


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Initially (Version 4.0) NOT MUCH! OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

AWIPS SURFACE SATELLITE RADAR SOUNDING PROFILER BACKGROUND MODEL

4.1 METARS 8bit IR Only None Inactive Network RUC (Can use Eta)

4.2 +LDAD** Same Low-level Inactive Network RUC (Can use Eta)

Z, Level 3

RPG, No V

Full All Derived Mulitple RAOBS RASS Other Models

LAPS Soundings Radars Boundary

10bit IR All levels Layer

& VIS Z and V Profilers

** if Available


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Quote from the Field OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

"...for the hourly LAPS soundings, you can go to interactive skew-T, and loop the editable soundings from one hour to the next, and get a more accurate idea of how various parameters are changing on an hourly basis...nice. We continue to find considerable use of the LAPS data (including soundings) for short-term convective forecasting."


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The Component of LAPS OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

There are 3 main components

1) Temperature

2) Moisture

3) Wind

See Steve Albers discussion at

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/albers/projects.html


3d temperature l.jpg
3D Temperature OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Interpolate from model (RUC)

  • Insert sonde and RASS if available

    • normally radius of influence not used unless more than one sounding

  • Insert surface temperature and blend upward

    • depending on stability and elevation

      • Surface temperature analysis depends on

        • METARS and LDAD

        • Gradients adjusted by IR temperature


3d moisture l.jpg
3D Moisture OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Preliminary analysis from vertical “soundings” derived from METARS and PIREPS

  • IR used to determine cloud top (using temperature field)

  • Radar data inserted (3-D if available)

  • Visible satellite used


Products derived from wind analysis l.jpg
Products Derived from Wind Analysis OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”


Case study example l.jpg
Case Study Example OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

An example of the use of LAPS in convective event

13-14 May 1999

Location: DEN-BOU WFO


Case study example cont l.jpg
Case Study Example (cont.) OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • Late on the 13th we see moisture returning in far eastern CO on “screaming” southerly flow. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued at 4 PM (2200 UTC) for portions of northeast CO and nearby areas.

  • Note the change in the moisture near LBF


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LAPS surface CAPE with CIN and METARS OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”


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LAPS sounding near LBF OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2300 UTC


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LAPS sounding near LBF OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

0000 UTC


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LAPS sounding near LBF OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

0100 UTC


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Case Study Example (cont.) OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

  • On the next day, 14 May the moisture is in place. A line of storms develops along the foothills around noon LT (1800 UTC) and moves east. LAPS used to diagnose potential for severe development. A Tornado Watch issued by ~1900 UTC for portions of eastern CO and nearby areas.

  • A brief tornado did form in far eastern CO west of GLD around 0000 UTC the 15th. Other tornadoes occurred later near GLD.


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NOWRAD and METARS with LAPS surface CAPE OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2100 UTC


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NOWRAD and METARS with LAPS surface CIN OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2100 UTC


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Dewpoint max appears near CAPE max, but between METARS OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2100 UTC


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Examine soundings near CAPE max at points B, E and F OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2100 UTC


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Soundings near CAPE max at B, E and F OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2100 UTC


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RUC also has dewpoint max near point E OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2100 UTC


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LAPS & RUC sounding comparison at point E (CAPE Max) OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2100 UTC


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CAPE Maximum persists in same area OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2200 UTC


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CIN minimum in area of CAPE max OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2200 UTC


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Point E, CAPE has increased to 2674 J/kg OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

2200 UTC



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How does LAPS sfc divergence compare to that of the RUC? co-located

Similar over the plains.

2100 UTC



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Case Study Example (cont.) co-located

  • The next images show a series of LAPS soundings from near LBF illustrating some dramatic changes in the moisture aloft. Why does this occur?


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LAPS sounding near LBF co-located

1600 UTC


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LAPS sounding near LBF co-located

1700 UTC


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LAPS sounding near LBF co-located

1800 UTC


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LAPS sounding near LBF co-located

2100 UTC


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Case Study Example (cont.) co-located

  • Now we will examine some LAPS cross-sections to investigate the changes in moisture, interspersed with a sequence of satellite images showing the location of the cross-section, C-C` (from WSW to ENE across DEN)


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Visible image with LAPS 700 mb temp and wind and METARS co-located

1500 UTC

Note the strong thermal gradient aloft from NW-S (snowing in southern WY) and the LL moisture gradient across eastern CO.



Slide57 l.jpg

Visible image co-located

1600 UTC


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Visible image co-located

1700 UTC


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LAPS cross-section co-located

1700 UTC


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LAPS cross-section co-located

1800 UTC


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LAPS cross-section co-located

1900 UTC


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Case Study Example (cont.) co-located

  • The cross-sections show some fairly substantial changes in mid-level RH. Some of this is related to LAPS diagnosis of clouds, but the other changes must be caused by the satellite moisture analysis between cloudy areas. It is not clear how believable some of these are in this case.


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Case Study Example (cont.) co-located

  • Another field that can be monitored with LAPS is helicity. A description of LAPS helicity is at

    http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/frd/laps/LAPB/AWIPS_WFO_page.htm

  • A storm motion is derived from the mean wind (sfc-300 mb) with an off mean wind motion determined by a vector addition of 0.15 x Shear vector, set to perpendicular to the mean storm motion

  • Next we’ll examine some helicity images for this case. Combining CAPE and minimum CIN with helicity agreed with the path of the supercell storm that produced the CO tornado.







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Case Study Example (cont.) co-located

  • Now we’ll show some other LAPS fields that might be useful (and some that might not…)




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LAPS Topography influenced by topography


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Vorticity is a smooth field in LAPS influenced by topography


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Comparison with the influenced by topography Eta does show some differences.

Are they real?


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Stay Away from DivQ at 10 km influenced by topography


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Why Run Models in the Weather Office? influenced by topography

  • Diagnose local weather features to enhance conceptual models

    • sea/mountain breezes

    • modulation of synoptic scale features

  • Take advantage of high resolution terrain data to downscale national model forecasts

    • orography is a data source!


Why run models in the weather office cont l.jpg
Why Run Models in the influenced by topography Weather Office? (cont.)

  • Take advantage of unique local data

    • radar

    • surface mesonets

  • Have an NWP tool under local control for scheduled and special support

  • Take advantage of powerful/cheap computers


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LAPS Philosophy influenced by topography

  • Much of what LAPS generates makes it ideal for initializing a local scale model- even if some of the products may not be particularly useful in the WFO (like the cloud analysis, etc.)


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Modeling Approaches influenced by topography

  • Diagnostic Mode

  • Basic Operational “Downscaling” Mode

  • Data Assimilation and Forecast Mode


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SFM forecast showing details of the orographic precipitation, as well as capturing the Longmont anticyclone flow on the plains


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LAPS Summary precipitation, as well as capturing the Longmont anticyclone flow on the plains

  • You can see more about our local modeling efforts at

    http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/szoke/lapsreview/start.html

  • What else in the future? (besides hopefully a more complete input data stream to AWIPS LAPS...)

  • Learn more about a different kind of visualization, D3D, at

    http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/d3d/ams99/rtII/start.html


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D3D Example precipitation, as well as capturing the Longmont anticyclone flow on the plains


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Example of Powerful Sounding Tool in D3D precipitation, as well as capturing the Longmont anticyclone flow on the plains


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