intelligent use of laps
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Intelligent Use of LAPS

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 90

Intelligent Use of LAPS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 215 Views
  • Uploaded on

Intelligent Use of LAPS. By Ed Szoke 20 May 1999. LAPS. A system designed to: Exploit all available data sources Create analyzed and forecast grids Build products for specific forecast applications Use advanced display technology …All within the local weather office.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Intelligent Use of LAPS' - Melvin


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
intelligent use of laps
Intelligent Use of LAPS

By

Ed Szoke

20 May 1999

slide2
LAPS

A system designed to:

  • Exploit all available data sources
  • Create analyzed and forecast grids
  • Build products for specific forecast applications
  • Use advanced display technology

…All within the local weather office

strategic plan for the modernization and associated restructuring of the national weather service

“THE CONCEPT OF THE LOCAL DATA BASE IS CENTRAL TO FUTURE OPERATIONS…THE MOST COMPLETE DATA SETS WILL ONLY BE AVAILABLE TO THE LOCAL WFO. THE NEW OBSERVING SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED TO PROVIDE INTEGRATED 3-D DEPICTIONS OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.”

-Strategic plan for the modernization and associated restructuring of the National Weather Service

local data
Local Data
  • Local Data may be defined as that data not entering into the National Database
  • Sources
    • Highway Departments
      • Many States with full or partial networks
    • Agricultural Networks
      • State run, sometimes private
    • Universities
      • Experimental observations
    • Private Industry
      • Environmental monitoring
problems with local data
Problems with Local Data
  • Poor Maintenance
  • Poor Communications
  • Poor Calibration

Result ----------------> Inaccurate,

Irregular,

Observations

quality control methods
Quality Control Methods
  • Gross Error Checks

Rough Climatological Estimates

  • Statistical Models

Buddy Checking

  • Dynamical Models

Use of meso-beta models

requirements for qc scheme
Requirements for QC Scheme
  • Runnable in weather offices on small workstations
  • Adaptable to ongoing model improvement
  • Adaptable to daily variations in model skill
requirements for qc scheme cont
Requirements for QC Scheme (cont.)

SOLUTION: The KALMAN FILTER

  • Adaptable to small workstations
  • Accommodates models of varying complexity
  • Model error is a dynamic quantity within the filter, thus the scheme adjusts as model skill varies
laps overview
LAPS Overview
  • LAPS Grid
    • Horizontal Resolution = 10 km
    • Vertical Resolution = 50 mb
    • Size: 61 x 61 x 21
laps analysis software
LAPS Analysis Software
  • Analysis package has been in each version of WFO-Advanced delivered to PRC and NWS
  • LAPS in current build (AWIPS 4.2) is primitive
  • Awaiting requirements for build 5.0, such as resizeability, relocatability, advanced quality control techniques, etc.
sources of laps information
Sources of LAPS Information
  • The LAPS homepage http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov

provides access to many links including:

  • What is in AWIPS LAPS?

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/LAPS/AWIPS_WFO_page.htm

initially version 4 0 not much
Initially (Version 4.0) NOT MUCH!

AWIPS SURFACE SATELLITE RADAR SOUNDING PROFILER BACKGROUND MODEL

4.1 METARS 8bit IR Only None Inactive Network RUC (Can use Eta)

4.2 +LDAD** Same Low-level Inactive Network RUC (Can use Eta)

Z, Level 3

RPG, No V

Full All Derived Mulitple RAOBS RASS Other Models

LAPS Soundings Radars Boundary

10bit IR All levels Layer

& VIS Z and V Profilers

** if Available

quote from the field
Quote from the Field

"...for the hourly LAPS soundings, you can go to interactive skew-T, and loop the editable soundings from one hour to the next, and get a more accurate idea of how various parameters are changing on an hourly basis...nice. We continue to find considerable use of the LAPS data (including soundings) for short-term convective forecasting."

the component of laps
The Component of LAPS

There are 3 main components

1) Temperature

2) Moisture

3) Wind

See Steve Albers discussion at

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/albers/projects.html

3d temperature
3D Temperature
  • Interpolate from model (RUC)
  • Insert sonde and RASS if available
    • normally radius of influence not used unless more than one sounding
  • Insert surface temperature and blend upward
    • depending on stability and elevation
      • Surface temperature analysis depends on
        • METARS and LDAD
        • Gradients adjusted by IR temperature
3d moisture
3D Moisture
  • Preliminary analysis from vertical “soundings” derived from METARS and PIREPS
  • IR used to determine cloud top (using temperature field)
  • Radar data inserted (3-D if available)
  • Visible satellite used
case study example
Case Study Example

An example of the use of LAPS in convective event

13-14 May 1999

Location: DEN-BOU WFO

case study example cont
Case Study Example (cont.)
  • Late on the 13th we see moisture returning in far eastern CO on “screaming” southerly flow. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued at 4 PM (2200 UTC) for portions of northeast CO and nearby areas.
  • Note the change in the moisture near LBF
case study example cont35
Case Study Example (cont.)
  • On the next day, 14 May the moisture is in place. A line of storms develops along the foothills around noon LT (1800 UTC) and moves east. LAPS used to diagnose potential for severe development. A Tornado Watch issued by ~1900 UTC for portions of eastern CO and nearby areas.
  • A brief tornado did form in far eastern CO west of GLD around 0000 UTC the 15th. Other tornadoes occurred later near GLD.
case study example cont49
Case Study Example (cont.)
  • The next images show a series of LAPS soundings from near LBF illustrating some dramatic changes in the moisture aloft. Why does this occur?
case study example cont54
Case Study Example (cont.)
  • Now we will examine some LAPS cross-sections to investigate the changes in moisture, interspersed with a sequence of satellite images showing the location of the cross-section, C-C` (from WSW to ENE across DEN)
slide55

Visible image with LAPS 700 mb temp and wind and METARS

1500 UTC

Note the strong thermal gradient aloft from NW-S (snowing in southern WY) and the LL moisture gradient across eastern CO.

case study example cont62
Case Study Example (cont.)
  • The cross-sections show some fairly substantial changes in mid-level RH. Some of this is related to LAPS diagnosis of clouds, but the other changes must be caused by the satellite moisture analysis between cloudy areas. It is not clear how believable some of these are in this case.
case study example cont63
Case Study Example (cont.)
  • Another field that can be monitored with LAPS is helicity. A description of LAPS helicity is at

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/frd/laps/LAPB/AWIPS_WFO_page.htm

  • A storm motion is derived from the mean wind (sfc-300 mb) with an off mean wind motion determined by a vector addition of 0.15 x Shear vector, set to perpendicular to the mean storm motion
  • Next we’ll examine some helicity images for this case. Combining CAPE and minimum CIN with helicity agreed with the path of the supercell storm that produced the CO tornado.
case study example cont69
Case Study Example (cont.)
  • Now we’ll show some other LAPS fields that might be useful (and some that might not…)
why run models in the weather office
Why Run Models in the Weather Office?
  • Diagnose local weather features to enhance conceptual models
    • sea/mountain breezes
    • modulation of synoptic scale features
  • Take advantage of high resolution terrain data to downscale national model forecasts
    • orography is a data source!
why run models in the weather office cont
Why Run Models in the Weather Office? (cont.)
  • Take advantage of unique local data
    • radar
    • surface mesonets
  • Have an NWP tool under local control for scheduled and special support
  • Take advantage of powerful/cheap computers
laps philosophy
LAPS Philosophy
  • Much of what LAPS generates makes it ideal for initializing a local scale model- even if some of the products may not be particularly useful in the WFO (like the cloud analysis, etc.)
modeling approaches
Modeling Approaches
  • Diagnostic Mode
  • Basic Operational “Downscaling” Mode
  • Data Assimilation and Forecast Mode
slide84

SFM forecast showing details of the orographic precipitation, as well as capturing the Longmont anticyclone flow on the plains

laps summary
LAPS Summary
  • You can see more about our local modeling efforts at

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/szoke/lapsreview/start.html

  • What else in the future? (besides hopefully a more complete input data stream to AWIPS LAPS...)
  • Learn more about a different kind of visualization, D3D, at

http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/d3d/ams99/rtII/start.html

ad