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Preparing for Integration: The Relation s of the EU with the Balkan Countries. Tamás Szemlér Ph.D, senior research fellow Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Paris, 13 October 2006. THE COMING ENLARGEMENT OF THE EU WITH ROMANIA, BULGARIA AND CROATIA

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Preparing for integration the relation s of the eu with the balkan countries l.jpg

Preparing for Integration:The Relations of the EU with theBalkan Countries

Tamás Szemlér

Ph.D, senior research fellow

Institute for World Economics

of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

Paris, 13 October 2006

THE COMING ENLARGEMENT OF THE EUWITH ROMANIA, BULGARIA AND CROATIA

ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SECURITY CONSEQUENCES

International Seminar for Experts in the series Great Debatesorganised by the Cicero Foundation


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Heterogeneous region – structured relations with the EU

  • 2 new EU member states from 1 January 2007

    • Bulgaria, Romania

  • 1 country having begun EU entry negotiations

    • Croatia

  • 1 candidate country

    • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

  • 4 further countries on the way

    • Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro


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Milestones of the relations of the EC/EU with Bulgaria and Romania

Source: European Commission


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EU financial support before membership

  • Pre-accession Funds

    • PHARE

    • ISPA

    • SAPARD

  • Bulgaria: more than euro 2.4 bn until 2004

  • Romania: more than euro 4.8 bn until 2004

  • 2005-2006: financial support equalling ca. 2% (Bulgaria), and ca. 1.5% (Romania) of GDP (total ca. euro 1 bn and 2.1 bn, respectively)


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Financial package 2007-2009

+

Estimated expenditure for agriculture, total for 2007-2009, on 2004 prices:

Market measures: euro 1120 mn (Bulgaria: 388 mn, Romania: 732 mn)

Direct payments: euro 1312 mn (Bulgaria: 431 mn, Romania: 881 mn)

+

Specific arrangements, total for 2007-2009, on 2004 prices:

Temporary Cash-flow and Schengen Facility: euro 799 mn

(Bulgaria: 239,5 mn, Romania: 559,5 mn)

Source: Report on the Results of the Negotiationson the Accession of Bulgaria and Romaniato the European UnionPrepared by the Commission's Departments, February 2005, 5859/05, pp. 22-23.


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Time to think about the next to come…


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The structured relations of the EU with the countries of the Western Balkans

Source: European Commission


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The Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP)

  • The framework programme of the EU

    • for Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro includingKosovo as defined by the UNSCR 1244

  • Along-term process

    • providing a general framework for the countries of the region for their relationship with the EU, but at the same time

    • taking into account the differences in political and economic development between them

  • The elements of the SAP: “country-shaped” combinations of

    • trade concessions (Autonomous Trade Preferences),

    • economic and financial support (the CARDS programme),

    • contractual relations (Stabilisation and Association Agreements).

  • Besides bilateral relations, the encouragement and support of regional cooperation is also an important element of the structure of relations in the framework of the SAP.


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CARDS Programme allocation for 2000–2006 (million euro)

Source: European Commission


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On the way towards free trade in South-East Europe

  • 2006:

    • 30 bilateral free trade agreements in force

      • Including intra-CEFTA relations

      • Specific arrangements regarding Kosovo

      • Moldova is associated to the process

    • Further 3 agreements initiated, under examination or consideration

  • 2007:

    • The circle of bilateral agreements is planned to be completed, and can be transformed into one single multilateral agreement


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The SEE free trade matrix (as of 15 February 2006)

Source: http://www.stabilitypact.org/trade


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Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Trade relations between the SEE-7, the EU andHungary:exports (as a percentage of total exports), 2000

Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Trade relations between the SEE-7, the EU andHungary:exports (as a percentage of total exports), 2005

Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Trade relations between the SEE-7, the EU andHungary:imports (as a percentage of total imports), 2000

Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Trade relations between the SEE-7, the EU andHungary:imports (as a percentage of total imports), 2005

Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Source: WIIW, Eurostat COMEXT


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Future prospects of relations

  • An ever closer economic and political attachment of the SEE countries to the EU

    • Bulgaria, Romania: full EU members from 1 January 2007

    • Croatia: well on track towards full EU membership

    • The other countries of the Western Balkans: the years 2006-2007 can be decisive

      • „Hot issues”: peaceful solutions are a must


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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

With further remarks or questions,

please, contact me on

tszemler@vki.hu

Visit also our website:

www.vki.hu

Among other studies, the Working Paper „At a Turning Point? – The Southeast European Economies”

prepared in February 2006, is available on this website.


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