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Regional Economic Outlook Fall 2010. Syria. Tunisia. Lebanon. Afghanistan. Iran. Iraq. Morocco. Pakistan. Jordan. Kuwait. Algeria. Saudi Arabia. Libya. Bahrain. Egypt. United Arab Emirates. Qatar. Oman. Mauritania. Yemen. Sudan. Djibouti.

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Regional Economic Outlook Fall 2010

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Regional economic outlook fall 2010 l.jpg

Regional Economic OutlookFall 2010

Syria

Tunisia

Lebanon

Afghanistan

Iran

Iraq

Morocco

Pakistan

Jordan

Kuwait

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

Libya

Bahrain

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Oman

Mauritania

Yemen

Sudan

Djibouti


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Global outlook: Two-speed recovery in motion

Real GDP Growth

(percent change from a year earlier)

Temporary slow-down

2010:H2 — 2011:H1

Emerging economies

World

Advanced economies

2000

02

04

06

08

10


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A closer look at the two-speed recovery

Real GDP Growth

(percent change from a year earlier)


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Rebalancing is needed along two dimensions

Demand from external surplus economies

Demand from external deficit economies

Private demand

Public

demand


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Downside risks remain, but global double-dip unlikely

Prospects for World GDP Growth

(percent change)


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Inflationary pressures are forecast to remain subdued

Core Inflation

(Twelve-month change in the core CPI)

For countries with a peg to the USD or euro, this means that higher inflation rates may lead to real appreciation.

2002

04

06

08

Jul.10


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Oil demand is accelerating with the broadening of the global recovery but supply buffers are still substantial

Oil Demand Growth

(contributions to y-o-y growth in percent)

Total demand


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Temporary Wheat Supply Shock, Limited Spillovers

Major Food Crops, Nearest Futures Prices

(index, Jul. 1, 2010 = 100)

Wheat

Corn


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Capital Flows, Reserves, Appreciation

Net Monthly Flows to Emerging Market Equity Funds

(billions of U.S. dollars)

Net Monthly Flows to Emerging Market Bond Funds

(billions of U.S. dollars)

Sep. 10

Sep. 10

9


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MENAP Oil Exporters

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

Libya

Bahrain

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Oman

Yemen

Sudan


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Overview — Oil Exporters


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Global demand recovers, boosts activity

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

MENAP Oil Exporters


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…and external balances rebound

$257

$107

$124

$101

$75

$31

$23

$5

-$7

-$7

-$6

-$10

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

MENAP Oil Exporters


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…as do fiscal balances

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

MENAP Oil Exporters


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Many countries approaching break-even prices

Average oil price in 2010

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

MENAP Oil Exporters


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Some countries continue to provide stimulus

Percent change in total government expenditures in U.S. dollars(From 2008 to 2011)

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

MENAP Oil Exporters


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Keep an eye on inflation

Source: National authorities.

1Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, and Oman

MENAP Oil Exporters


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Financial sectors after the crisis (December 2009)

Source: National authorities.

1December 2008

MENAP Oil Exporters


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Policy priorities

MENAP Oil Exporters


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MENAP Oil Importers

Syria

Tunisia

Lebanon

Afghanistan

Morocco

Pakistan

Jordan

Egypt

Mauritania

Djibouti


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Overview — Oil Importers


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Trade recovery is moving ahead

Annual percent change of U.S. dollar value, 3-month moving average

Region’s exports are again growing steadily

Sources: National authorities; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; and Haver Analytics.¹ Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia.

MENAP Oil Importers


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Real GDP picking up across region

Annual percentage change

2011

Source: National Authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

MENAP Oil Importers


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Progress in fiscal consolidation

Source: National Authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

MENAP Oil Importers


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Most can maintain current monetary stance

Consumer Prices; annual percentage change

Aug-10

Sources: Haver Analytics; and national authorities.

MENAP Oil Importers


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More than 18 million jobs needed

Dominique Strauss-Kahn:

“We must not underestimate the daunting prospects we face: a lost generation, disconnected from the labor market, with a progressive loss of skills and motivation.”

AFP/ABDELHAK SENNA/Getty Images. Reprinted with permission.

(Unemployed workers wait for a job in the BaniMakada quarter of Tangiers, Morocco on March 20, 2004.)

MENAP Oil Importers


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High unemployment a long-standing issue

Sources: National authorities; IMF, World Economic Outlook; staff estimates; and International Labor Organization.

Note: MENA6 refers to Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia. Youth unemployment estimate for MENA6 excludes Jordan. Data refers to 2008 or latest available year.

MENAP Oil Importers


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Growth and export gaps: getting bigger

Goods exports

(in percent of GDP)

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook.

MENAP Oil Importers


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Competitiveness will need to improve

Competitiveness Rankings, 2010–11¹

Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report, 2010–11.

¹Economies are ranked from 1 to 139, with first place being the best. MENAP oil importers is a simple average ofEgypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Syria, and Tunisia. Emerging Asia is simple average of China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, Thailand, and Vietnam.

MENAP Oil Importers


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Broader Partnerships

Real GDP trends, annual percent change

Asia

Latin America

Advanced

economies

05

15

85

95

10

90

2000

1980

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

Note: 1980-2015 real GDP growth data are de-trended as 10-year backward rolling averages.

MENAP Oil Importers


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Policy priorities

MENAP Oil Importers


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