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Nielsen Market Overview David Glennon. Forest of Arden Hotel 2010. Overview of Market performance 2009 How is the Convenience and Impulse sector performing? Market is responding to post recessionary shopper Impact on sustainability and ethical issues Outlook for 2010 and beyond.

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Nielsen market overview david glennon l.jpg

Nielsen Market OverviewDavid Glennon

Forest of Arden Hotel 2010


Slide3 l.jpg

Overview of Market performance 2009

How is the Convenience and Impulse sector performing?

Market is responding to post recessionary shopper

Impact on sustainability and ethical issues

Outlook for 2010 and beyond


Understanding of food retailing from nielsen l.jpg
Understanding of food retailing from Nielsen

What

Is being bought

Who

Is buying it where

Nielsen Scantrack

EPOS sales transactions

across 15,000 food and drink

stores

Nielsen Homescan

14,500 GB households

Consumer Panel Grocery

purchase transactions

Nielsen On Line

Online panels for tracking

visits to e commerce sites

and collection of CGM

Why

Are they buying it

Nielsen Customised Research

Attitudes & behaviour

of consumers /shoppers


External forces impacted the uk shopper in 2009 l.jpg

Recession

  • House price deflation

  • Much tighter credit

  • Rising unemployment

  • Wage freezes so less spending power

FALLING

DEMAND

Shoppers have remained cautious

  • Food prices

  • Fuel & travel costs

  • Cost of credit

  • Weakening currency

INCREASED

COSTS

Global

Outlook

External forces impacted the UK shopper in 2009



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In a continuous search for value shoppers shopped differently

Shopping

less often

shopping

MORE often

1.

1.

Reduce

Basket size

Different

Pack Sizes

2.

3.

Switch

Channels

Switch

Channels

3.

2.

Inflation : the coping strategies

Recession: different strategies


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Last year the convenience sector outperformed out of town stores

Source: Nielsen Scantrack

Growths :52 weeks to 20th March 2010

Channel sizes : £ per annum


Out of town store growth slowed as inflation slowed l.jpg
Out of Town store growth slowed as inflation slowed stores

Source: Nielsen Scantrack

Growths :12 weeks to 20th March 2010

Channel sizes : £ per annum


Against low year ago comparatives most categories are now showing positive unit growths l.jpg
Against low year ago comparatives, most categories are now showing positive unit growths.

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Total Store Read Total GB


Total convenience market is worth 28bn 5 6 vs 0 5 prior year l.jpg
Total Convenience Market is worth £28bn showing positive unit growths. (+5.6% vs +0.5% prior year).

+5.3%

+1%

+9.4

+4.7%

+4.6

+6.7

+8.1

+5.4

+15.5

+11.8

+5.4

up

+6.0

Source: Nielsen Scantrack – Convenience Stores Total Store Read52 w/e 20.03.2010 v year ago


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Slowing ambient food inflation and a cautious consumer is impacting growths in packaged grocery which is now seeing negative value growths for the first time ... in over 2 years

Packaged Grocery 4 Weekly Growths

2009

2008

2010

*BRC-Nielsen SPI Feb10 Ambient Food Inflation +3.6% vs 7.1% Feb09

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Grocery Multiples


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Fresh categories continue to fuel growth in Convenience stores whilst their core categories BWS, GM and Tobacco are finding it tougher.

Source: Nielsen Scantrack Total Store Read Convenience


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Promotional spend increased during 2009 and was a factor in driving footfall during the recessionthis trend looks set to continue in 2010

35%

2007

2008

2009

30%

28%

26%

Source: Homescan Grocery Multiples

4 weeks ending periods to 20th March 2010

% Exp On Offer: Total FMCG

/


The shopper agenda now includes l.jpg
The Shopper Agenda now includes driving footfall during the recession

  • Shopping at new retailers

  • Buying more on promotion

  • Spending relatively less on Own Label

  • Questioning “ethical” values and relevance


A change in shopping behaviour and different to europe and usa l.jpg

We are buying different packs driving footfall during the recession

Smaller baskets(<5 items)

are 50% of all visits (+6%) and 15% of spend(+10%)

With more visits to buy less items

And shopping more frequently

A change in shopping behaviour …and different to Europe and USA

Source: Nielsen Homescan – Total FMCG (excl Gen Merchandise and Tobacco)

52 w/e 26th December 2009 vs 2008


How shoppers attitudes towards spending changed during the recession l.jpg
How shoppers attitudes towards spending changed during the recession

Making-do

Managed

absolute spend

Good is Good

Enough

Used

Value Retailers


As food inflation slowed retailers encouraged shoppers to buy more through multibuys l.jpg
As food inflation slowed, retailers encouraged shoppers to buy more through Multibuys

Food Inflation High Point

Share of Spend On Offer

annual average

Source: Nielsen Homescan – Total FMCG

4 week ending periods to 26th December 2009

/


Shoppers have been sticking with brands helped by the increased promotional support l.jpg
Shoppers have been sticking with brands helped by the increased promotional support

“As a result of the economic climate, I have changed the way I shop. .. I buy more own label products”

% Respondents that AGREE

Source: Nielsen Homescan Survey


Shoppers still plan to make savings l.jpg
Shoppers still plan to make savings helped by the increased promotional support

“…which of the following actions would you take in order to stay within your budget: ? ”

Source: Nielsen – Global Online Survey December 2009

Consumer Confidence – GB results


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Although the proportion of shoppers who prefer to buy products that are ethically produced or kinder to the environment has not changed – the number who believe it is worth paying extra for these products has not improved since January 2009 giving further credence that some shoppers are being forced to compromise their ethical and environmental credentials

% respondents who AGREE

“I try to buy products that are ethically produced or kinder to the environment”

“It is worth paying extra for products that are ethically produced or kinder to the environment”

Source: Nielsen Homescan Survey (GB)

January 2010, January 2009, October 2007 and October 2006


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Climate change and packaging waste continue to be the most important environmental issues for consumers. With increased global focus on our planet, this trend looks set to continue

“Which of these environment and related issues concerns you the most?”

% Respondents

Source: Nielsen Homescan Survey (GB)

January 2010, July 2008 vs July 2007


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For 1 in 4 shoppers “local” really does mean “local”, mileage is important, and an increasing proportion of shoppers are looking to support their local county

“I consider a product to be local when/ it has been grown or made by a business situated ....”

% respondents

Source: Nielsen Homescan Survey (GB) January 2010 vs July 2008


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2/3 of shoppers desire to help local farmers and local business with shoppers looking for evidence of provenance

“I try and buy local products because...”

% respondents

Source: Nielsen Homescan Survey (GB) January 2010 vs July 2008


How we shopped in the last 3 months l.jpg
How we shopped in the last 3 months …. business with shoppers looking for evidence of provenance

  • Sales growths for Total GB food and drink slowed to +2.4% .

  • Unit growths have increased in the last 4 weeks due to promotional activity.

  • Out of Town growths have slowed as food inflation continues to slow.

  • Fuel prices are rising again which attracted additional Out of Town spend over Easter * and we expect also for the Bank Holidays.

  • Growths in the wider Convenience channel have now stabilised after a strong end to 2009 and remain at +2.9%.


The economic outlook l.jpg
The Economic Outlook business with shoppers looking for evidence of provenance

2010 will be different to 2009

  • General Election and need for a second budget within 6 months (whoever wins and reaches a deal)

  • The subsequent reaction of the currency markets, and then sterling, and possibly (or inevitably) the cost of imported food/food stuffs.

  • Global Harvests, Oil and Commodity prices – upward pressures

  • The magnitude of household and national debt (and so the ongoing need to cut).

  • Uncertainty of the consumer and investor sentiment for when interest rates start to rise again (probably in the second half of the year).

Source : Shore Capital , January 2010


The retailer outlook l.jpg
The Retailer Outlook business with shoppers looking for evidence of provenance

2010 will be a lower growth environment than 2009

  • Low to moderate food inflation (3%) which indicates more stability.

  • Promotions may fall back as brand owners discretionary budgets are used to absorb cost price increases with retailers using more Own Label promotions to compensate

  • Own Label (and including Premium OL) growths could accelerate as retailers focus on reclaiming that point of difference in the ever more promotionally led and disloyal market.


The shopper outlook l.jpg
The Shopper Outlook business with shoppers looking for evidence of provenance

Promiscuous shoppers and a battle for loyalty

  • More visits to more stores will continue to benefit convenience sector

  • Less frequency but with bigger baskets at out of town stores.

  • Discounters `keep` shoppers who had started to use their stores during the recession, adding a Discounter to their repertoire of food shops regularly used.

  • Loyalty schemes, Coupons, Extra Reward Points and Vouchers will be used more and by more retailers.

  • Fuel savings (e.g. 5p a litre after spending £50 on food) could be a tactic used more regularly by the TOP4.


Looking ahead for the next 12 months l.jpg
Looking ahead for the next 12 months business with shoppers looking for evidence of provenance

  • First quarter of 2010 has been be tough and slowing inflation hasn’t helped

  • Q2 will be another difficult quarter – versus inflationary growths in 2009 and a slow economic recovery.

  • Q3/Q4 ...shoppers start to feel the impact falling disposable income (rising fuel bills, some inflation, increased taxes).

  • Ethical and Health may return to the shopper agenda however affordable luxuries and convenience/snacking are already in the mindset of shopper.

  • Continue to plan for a lower growth environment in 2010 as the Post - Recession shopper remains cautious, savvy and is still looking to make savings.


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Thank You business with shoppers looking for evidence of provenance

[email protected]


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