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Summary. Main inquiries : Explaining Lack of sustained socio-economic development Explaining Lack of political stability Different theoretical approaches Case Studies The paradox of Argentina and Brazil : rich in natural resources but economically and politically unstable, why?

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summary
Summary
  • Main inquiries:
    • Explaining Lack of sustained socio-economic development
    • Explaining Lack of political stability
  • Different theoretical approaches
  • Case Studies
  • The paradox of Argentina and Brazil: rich in natural resources but economically and politically unstable, why?
  • The paradox of Chile. Almost two centuries of political stability but it faced a backlash during the 1970s, why?
  • Today, the paradox of Colombia
colombia s paradox
Colombia’s Paradox
  • Two Paradox (Contradictions)
  • (a) The most violent country in Latin America but it has had a continuous democratic rule since 1958.
  • (b) The more money has been invested to eliminate drug-traffic, the more production of drugs we observe.
overview colombia the usual path
OverviewColombia, the usual path
  • (a) Concentration of land in few hands
  • (b) Economically depend on exporting raw material (Coffee, crude-oil, coal)
  • ( c) Racially divided: white (European descendent, less than 10%), mestizo (85%), indigenous (5%)
  • 1948/58 --> Civil war after attempt to introduce land reform. La violencia period, 200,000 deaths
  • 1958-2001 --> Government controlled by two parties (Conservative and Liberal). Both pro-status quo; alternation in power.
  • 1960s --> Emergence of Guerrilla movement, FARC and ENL (Marxist orientation. Social transformation agenda.
  • Based on rural areas. ENL (North), FARC (South)
  • 1960s --> Landowner responded organizing paramilitary groups.
  • 1980s --> Emergence of Narco-dealers
overview colombia armed actors
OverviewColombia: Armed Actors
  • The Government: low control over the military
  • The Armed Forces and Security Forces: 50,000-60,000
  • The Paramilitary: 7,000-10,000 (linked to the Armed Forces, landowners, narco-dealers). Responsible of 80% of the deaths in Colombia
    • Since 1996, they act as a United Self-defense forces of Colombia
    • They tax illegal drug industry to obtain resources
    • They are involved in drug trafficking
    • Strategy: Massacre of small villages to attack suspects
  • The Guerrilla: 15,000-20,000 (Today, linked to narco-dealers). Responsible of 15% of politically-motivated deaths.
    • Control of 42,000 km2,
    • kidnapping for profit
    • tax coca cultivation and production for profit
overview the results
OverviewThe results
  • Guerrilla war since 1960s and Narco-traffic war since 1980s.
  • Some Results 1960s-2001
  • 1.8 million forcibly displaced
  • More than 120,000 deaths as a direct result of these conflicts
  • Average of 3,000 kidnapping a year. (1/2 guerrilla, 1/2 criminals)
  • Recent Statistics.
  • 1960s-1990s 3,000 deaths average per year
  • 1999--22,957 deaths
  • 2000
  • 134,000 people displaced
  • Press estimate: 68 murders per day (7,000 deaths)
first paradox violence and democratic rule
First Paradox:Violence and democratic rule
  • High level of conflicts -- but elected governments since 1948. Why?
  • Structure of the economy
  • Political factors:
  • Coalition politics
  • Exclusion of certain actors
  • Key: the military
second paradox the more you invest in counter narcotics aid the more traffic you observe
Second Paradox:The more you invest in counter-narcotics aidThe more traffic you observe
  • Higher investment:
  • Since 1980 the U.S. Has spent over $ 25 billion on international anti-drug programs
  • Between 1996-2000 the U.S. invested $ 1 billion in counter-narcotics aid, increasing 68% in relation to the 1990-1996 period.
  • But bad results,
  • Coca cultivation double in Colombia between 1996-2000
  • More illicit drugs are available in the US and at cheaper prices
the paradox more investment in anti narcotics war but no results
The paradox:More investment in anti-narcotics warbut no results
  • Why do you think this has been the case?
the coca problem
The Coca problem
  • High incentives to grow coca and not alternative products
    • Weather
    • Characteristics of the plant
  • Peasants do not profit from coca cultivation.
    • Intermediary receive main profit (drug-dealers)
  • Geographical conditions make hard to detect laboratories
  • Profits from drug-traffic are incredible, given the demand!
    • Estimate 5 billion a year
    • Drugs dealers still profit paying guerrilla, paramilitary, politicians
    • Dealers could lose 90% of the profit and still be profitable
  • Another incentive: International arm traffic
the u s and the drug problem
The U.S. And the Drug Problem
  • Why does the US care about drug-traffic?
  • Total local cost is estimate in $110 billion a year (military aid, accidents, health care, lost productivity) 1 million hard-core drug users; 52,000 annual deaths for drug-abuse.
  • Thus, drug-traffic is a national security problem for the US
  • Colombia, the second most important recipient of US aid.
  • 90% of cocaine consumed in the US came from Colombia
  • How the U.S. Is dealing with this problem?
  • (a) Controlling Demand. Law enforcement and drug treatment programs. Only 57% of hard-core users have access to programs.
  • (b) Controlling traffic. Law enforcement, border control.
  • ( c) Controlling supply. Cutting coca production.
plan colombia a new attempt to reduce supply
Plan Colombia: A new attempt to reduce supply
  • Colombia’s government plan. September 1999
  • Objectives:
    • Peace negotiation with armed groups
    • Alternative economic development for affected regions
    • Promoting institutional reform to guarantee rule of law
    • Training Colombian military forces
    • Eliminating drug supply (Spraying coca cultivation, confronting groups)
  • Amount required: 7 billion dollars
  • Amount received: 3 billion dollars (US - 1.3 billion; Europe-300 million)
  • U.S. Aid: 1.3 billion (plus new $400 million this year)
    • 80% military aid. From this 80%, 70% will remain in the US
    • 20% economic development
discussion question
Discussion question
  • What are the consequences of the Plan Colombia? (see readings--Vargas, Human Rights Watch)
  • Think critically: do you agree with the following statement:
  • “Assisting the Colombian government with training and equipment will enable to reduce illegal drug production”
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