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4CP Mission- nonprofit. Help Educate the community on the severity and serious consequences of climate change . Present ideas and solutions that businesses and individuals can implement in order to save money, conserve energy & improve the overall health of our citizens and our planet.

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4CP Mission- nonprofit

  • Help Educate the community on the severity and serious consequences of climate change.

  • Present ideas and solutions that businesses and individuals can implement in order to save money, conserve energy & improve the overall health of our citizens and our planet

www.chescocooler.org


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A Local Perspective on Climate Change

What does it mean and what can I do about it?


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Agenda

  • Review Climate Change Science

  • Address How It Will Impact You

  • Define What Can You Do


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Planet has been Liveable


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Global Climate Cycles Naturally

  • 100,000 yrs of Ice, 20,000 yrs of Warmth

    • Currently in a warm period (for the last 15,000 yrs)

  • Climate ‘Drivers’

    • Earth’s elliptical orbit; Natural ‘tilt’ and ‘wobble’

    • Volcanoes, Asteroid impacts, Ocean circulation, airborne dust

  • Balance is easily tipped

    • Manmade Greenhouse Gases: CO2/CH4/N2O/CFC


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This is Not a “natural” Cycle

  • Earth warming much faster than natural cycles

    • Highest CO2 levels in >800,000 yrs

    • 10 hottest in last 15 yrs; 20 in last 25

  • Global warming is unequivocal & man made

    • Overwhelming scientific consensus

    • All US scientific agencies & IPCC agree

  • What’s the big deal?

    • Burning fuels the last 100 yrs = Tremendous amounts of CO2

    • CO2 traps heat; Is an ‘accelerator’

    • 9⁰ F decrease delivered an Ice Age

    • What will happen with a 3-8⁰F increase?


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Univ. of Illinois Survey

January 1, 2009: 3,146 Global Earth Scientists

  • “It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely non-existent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.“


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More Consensus

  • Science Academies Urge Faster Response to Climate Change

    June, 2009--The science academies of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Russia, plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa, called on their leaders to "seize all opportunities" to address global climate change that "is happening even faster than previously estimated.”

  • World's Science Academies Say Ocean Acidification Another Reason to Cut Emissions

    June, 2009--The Inter Academy Panel, a network of the world's science academies, issued a statement warning that ocean acidification caused by carbon dioxide emissions will have a profound impact on marine ecosystems


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US Global Change Research Program Official US Position on Climate Change Sept, 2009

Comprised of Scientists from Dept’s of:

Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, Agriculture, State, Transportation, Health & Human Services

And…

NASA, National Science Foundation, Smithsonian Institution, Agency for International Dev., EPA

Conclusions

Climate changes are real, have consequences, and need attention


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1980

Annual Sea Ice Minimum

NASA


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2007

Annual Sea Ice Minimum

NASA

  • Less light and energy reflected

  • Means Dark ocean water absorbs heat


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Current Climate Change Impacts

#2: Shrinking Mountain Glaciers

  • Every Glacierhas rapid and sustained retreat

  • Major losses in Himalayan’s

  • Reduced drinking supplies

  • Big impact on agriculture

    This means less water for food for billions

    …. in Western USA, South America, Africa and Asia


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Every Glacier in the World


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Current Ocean Change Impacts

  • #3: More Acidic Oceans from Dissolved CO2

    • This will kill coral & disrupt

    • the ocean’s food chain

    • &


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Projected Climate Change Impacts

#1 Sea Level Rise (5-9 in last 100 yrs)

  • Projections = 3 ft by 2090

    • Warmer H2O expands

    • New: Greenland & Antarctica both losing Ice mass !!

    • Greenland & Antarctica = 215 feet!

  • Even modest increases

    • $ billions spent protecting cities (Or abandon)

    • ~ 600 million people displaced

    • Mass migrations likely; To USA?


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Where Will They Go?

  • Bangladesh = 162 million people

    50% flooded by 2090

  • Maldives coral islands

    = 400,000 people

  • What will people drink?

    - salt water intrusion everywhere


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East Coast at risk


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#2 Likely Crop Failures

  • Higher/longer Temp = Impacts yields (Time above 86° F)

  • Inconsistent and unpredictable rainfall

  • Emerging agricultural diseases

  • Ref: Nature Conservancy : Climatewizard – for each state

  • Wolfram Schlenker at Columbia University & Michael Roberts at NC St.


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#3 Warming Permafrost & Peat Bogs:

Will Release Massive Methane & CO2

Tipping point?

.

Latest estimate of the amount of carbon in Permafrost is 1.7 trillion tons. More than in atmosphere now.

Permafrost line now 90 miles north vs 1960.


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Impact on Pennsylvania/Chester Co

  • Dramatic increase in extreme hot days

    • Increase in days over 90F & 100F…..

    • Vulnerable older populations at risk

    • Outdoor sports on 100° F plus days?

    • Tropical diseases migrate north (West Nile, Dengue fever)

    • Changes in fish, wildlife & plant life

    • Ranges moving north; Numbers declining

    • Agricultural yields to decrease

    • Hardwood trees decline – black cherry, beech, sugar maple

    • Warm “winters” do not kill off insects


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Impact on Pennsylvania/Chester Co

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 2009


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Solutions

Or what You can do as an individual


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Solutions…

Before We Begin, A Reality Check….

  • Significant fossil fuel dependency

  • Shifting will take time & commitment

  • Shifting fossil fuels will raise costs


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US Residential Energy Consumption - 2001

Residential

fuels

Electricity

Ag

50% coal

Industry

Vehicles


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COAL: 50% of our CO2 & 100% of Mercury

  • Biggest source of CO2

    • PA produces 470,000 lbs/minute

    • Largest source of mercury, acid rain; Huge toxic ash

  • What shall we do?

    • Replace with cleaner alternatives

    • Support minimum renewable standards for utilities

    • Capture with CCS – condense & pipeline to Underground


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Solutions…atHome

Consider 2 Powerful Concepts

1-Conservation(avoidingenergy use when practical)

2-Efficiency(stretching your energy $’s)


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Solutions…atHome

Conserve(avoiding energy use when practical)

  • Upgrade to much better MPG cars

  • Turn down thermostat in winter/up in summer

  • Turn off unused lights & power strips

  • Turn down H20 heater to 120°


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Solutions…atHome

Become More Efficient (stretching energy $’s)

  • Conduct an energy audit & act

  • Insulate & weatherize

  • Upgrade Heat/ Cooling: geothermal; Hi eff gas; Solar PV & Thermal

  • Buy Energy Star/ Switch to CFL or LED’s


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Solutions…atWork

Things to Consider…

  • Is there is an Energy Committee?

    • If yes, join! If not, promote idea!

  • Conduct audit, set company goals & implement

    • DOE offers free audits


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Solutions…withElected OfficialsRemember your grandkids

TownshipCountyStateFederal

Communicate Your Position with Elected Officials

Support all technologies that greatly Reduce or Eliminate CO2 Emissions: (Nat gas; Wind; Solar; Nuclear; Hi Eff buildings; Hybrid & electric vehicles; Fuel cells; Very efficient appliances; LED / CFL lights)


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Grow the Economy & Jobs !

  • Stop Bleeding $300 Billion / yr on Oil

  • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) “We cannot sacrifice another job to competitors overseas. China and India are among the many countries investing heavily in clean-energy technologies that will produce millions of jobs..

    “Six months ago my biggest worry was that an emissions deal would make American business less competitive compared to China; Now my concern is that every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy.”


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It’s the Economy Stupid..

  • "Power companies need and want to be part of America's clean energy transition,"

    • -David Crane, president and CEO of NRG Energy Inc., which owns and operates more than 24,000 megawatts of electricity generation capacity in the U.S.

    • "But we need the certainty of clear rules and strong policies that will help us invest in that transition while also addressing climate change and keeping power affordable." 

    • "The same inventive solutions that will help the environment will also help move the airline industry forward,"

      • - David Cush, president and CEO of Virgin America, a U.S. commercial passenger airline.

  • "The United States can't afford to fall behind in the global race to lead the new energy economy,"

    • - Jonathan Wolfson, CEO of Solazyme, a leading renewable oil and bioproducts company.


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Business Leaders Speak Out

  • “We are virtually certain that climate change is occurring, and occurring because of man’s activities.”

  • “We’re virtually certain the probability distribution curve is all bad. There are no good things that’ll come of this”

  • J. Wayne Leonard, CEO of Entergy Corporation

    • (utility based in New Orleans, Louisiana)


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Business Leaders Speak Out

  • Dell, DuPont, FPL, Google, HP, Johnson & Johnson, Levi Strauss, PG&E , Duke Energy, Xanterra sent the US Senate a letter urging them to pass a bill that will cut GHG emissions - “jumpstart a clean energy economy” 

  • Dow Chemical Co., Entergy Corp., Nike Inc. and more than 140 other companies support a comprehensive climate and energy senate bill

  •  “A rapidly changing climate is reshaping the American landscape and poses a long-term threat to our nation’s economy and to our children’s future.”


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What will it cost?

  • A range of cost estimates have all concluded that the costs of tackling climate change range from 1-3% of GDP & would provide cost savings and create jobs….

  • The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost so far: $950 B. about 5% of GDP

  • Americans spend 5.6% of after tax income on entertainment


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What is Wal Mart doing?

  • Wal-Mart’s new sustainability goal: to eliminate 20 million metric tons of greenhouse gases from the supply chain by 2015.

  • This amount, roughly equivalent to the company’s total corporate emissions last year,

    • “the equivalent of taking more than 3.8 million cars off the road for a year.”


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Wal-Mart has more than 10,000 suppliers in China

  • CEO of Lutex: Hong Kong-based soap and cosmetics maker:

  • “Wal-Mart Stores is urging him to pay attention to Environmental details. Energy-saving details. Not just everyday low prices, but low greenhouse gas emissions”.

  • “We heard that in the future, to become a Wal-Mart supplier, you have to be an environmentally friendly company,” Fung said. “So we switched some of our products and the way we produced them.”


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Our Stewardship

  • Overwhelming evidence & Consensus

  • Serious consequences

  • Our children/grandchildren are at risk

    It Starts with You


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Scientific Consenus

  • U.S. Agency for International Development

  • United States Department of Agriculture

  • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

  • National Institute of Standards and Technology

  • United States Department of Defense

  • United States Department of Energy

  • National Institutes of Health

  • United States Department of State

  • United States Department of Transportation

  • U.S. Geological Survey

  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

  • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

  • National Center for Atmospheric Research

  • National Aeronautics & Space Administration

  • National Science Foundation

  • Smithsonian Institution

  • International Arctic Science Committee

  • Arctic Council

  • Australian Academy of Sciences

  • Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts

  • Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias

  • Royal Society of Canada

  • Caribbean Academy of Sciences

  • Chinese Academy of Sciences

  • Académie des Sciences, France

  • Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina of Germany

  • Indonesian Academy of Sciences

  • Royal Irish Academy

  • Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy

  • Indian National Science Academy

  • Science Council of Japan

  • Kenya National Academy of Sciences

  • Academy of Sciences Malaysia

  • Academia Mexicana de Ciencias

  • Nigerian Academy of Sciences

  • Royal Society of New Zealand

  • Polish Academy of Sciences

  • Russian Academy of Sciences

  • l’Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal

  • Academy of Science of South Africa

  • Sudan Academy of Sciences

  • Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences

  • Tanzania Academy of Sciences

  • Turkish Academy of Sciences


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Consensus Cont. 2

  • The Royal Society of the United Kingdom

  • National Academy of Sciences, United States

  • Zambia Academy of Sciences

  • Zimbabwe Academy of Science

  • American Academy of Pediatrics

  • American Association for the Advancement of Science

  • American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians

  • American Astronomical Society

  • American Chemical Society

  • American College of Preventive Medicine

  • American Geophysical Union

  • American Institute of Physics

  • American Medical Association

  • American Meteorological Society

  • American Physical Society

  • American Public Health Association

  • American Quaternary Association

  • American Institute of Biological Sciences

  • American Society of Agronomy

  • American Society of Plant Biologists

  • American Statistical Association

  • Association of Ecosystem Research Centers

  • American Society for Microbiology

  • Botanical Society of America

  • Crop Science Society of America

  • Ecological Society of America

  • Federation of American Scientists

  • Geological Society of America

  • National Association of Geoscience Teachers

  • Natural Science Collections Alliance

  • Organization of Biological Field Stations

  • Society of American Foresters

  • Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

  • Society of Systematic Biologists

  • Soil Science Society of America

  • Australian Coral Reef Society

  • Australian Medical Association

  • Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society


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Consensus Cont3.

  • Engineers Australia

  • Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies

  • Geological Society of Australia

  • British Antarctic Survey

  • Institute of Biology, UK

  • Royal Meteorological Society, UK

  • Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences

  • Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

  • European Federation of Geologists

  • European Geosciences Union

  • European Physical Society

  • European Science Foundation

  • International Association for Great Lakes Research

  • International Union for Quaternary Research

  • International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  • World Federation of Public Health Associations

  • World Health Organization

  • World Meteorological Organization


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Questions?


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Quotes

According to recent estimates from the Integrated Global Systems Model at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the median forecast is for a climb of 9 degrees Fahrenheit by century’s end, in the absence of effective countermeasures.

According to the same M.I.T. model, there is a 10 percent chance that the average global temperature will rise more than 12.4 degrees by 2100, Warming on that scale would be truly catastrophic.

“Most people would pay a substantial share of their wealth — much more, certainly, than the modest cost of a carbon tax — to avoid having someone pull the trigger on a gun pointed at their Kid’s head with one bullet and nine empty chambers. Yet that’s the kind of risk that some people think we should take”.

Robert H. Frank is an economist at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University.


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Educate Yourself: Handout

  • United States Environmental Protection Agency http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

  • National Academies of Science http://www.nationalacademies.org/

  • PEW Center www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics

  • Real climate. Can search by topics and “skeptics” arguments.

    www.realclimate.org

  • United States Department of Energyhttp://www.energy.gov/  

  • Intergovernmental Panel on climate change; www.ipcc.ch

    “Hot, Flat & Crowded”- Thomas Friedman


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Educate Yourself: Handout

  • http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/10/wheres-political-engagement-climate-change-reductions-soy-corn-yields.php

  • A new analysis of U.S. climate projections from The Nature Conservancy finds that temperatures in the worst-hit states could be up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than present-day levels by the year 2100. http://www.climatewizard.org/

  • “The mass changes of both Greenland  and Antarctica ice sheets  (the biggest in the world)  during the last 7 yrs have all been negative. The rates of lose have accelerated.  We should be concerned” – Geophysicist I. Velicogna of NASA’s  Jet Propulsion Lab – in press


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Vehicles

  • Represent 35% of GHG emissions

  • Quickly move to hybrids;

  • Then electric vehicles(as move away from coal)

  • Airplanes & Trucks use bio fuels from microbes or Natural gas for large trucks


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