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Erice International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies 42 nd Session 19-24 August 2009

Erice International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies 42 nd Session 19-24 August 2009 Giorgio Simbolotti Senior Advisor Energy Technology (Enea, President’s Office)

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Erice International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies 42 nd Session 19-24 August 2009

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  1. Erice International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies42nd Session 19-24 August 2009 Giorgio Simbolotti Senior Advisor Energy Technology (Enea, President’s Office) Beyond Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies To Face Climate Change? ENEA - Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Environment Some 2000 Researchers and 10 Labs in Italy: Nuclear and Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, Biotechnology, Material Science, Environment and Climate

  2. Questions rather than messages … If IPPC conclusion is correct, energy-related emissions must be reduced by more than 50% by 2050 • Is this objective still achievable using “emerging” low-carbon technologies ? • Is the current strategy correct ? • Are we on the verge of a technology revolution? And which one? Based on IEA energy projections: Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008 World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008

  3. ETP 2008 in Summary Two basic mitigation scenarios: ACT: emissions back to 2005 level by 2050  BLUE: 50% emissions reduction by 2050 Variants to explore technology uncertainties and regional diversification, e.g.: + Nuclear; - Renewable; - CCS; - Efficiency; + HE/FC Vehicles; + Fuel effic. in transport Basic assumptions on energy prices not influenced by 2008 peak, nor by the current crisis (basic oil price $60-65/bbl) Includes 2006-2008 technology cost rise Explores potential of energy technologies “competing” in the global market ?

  4. ETP Conclusions (in one slide) • Mitigation is “technically and economically” achievable assuming: • immediate global commitment, and • urgent deployment of a number of emerging low-carbon techs (incl. early-stage techs, with R&D/cost uncertainties)

  5. A number of Technologies … CO2 Reduction by technology (Gt CO2/yr) Baseline 2050 62 Gt 2012 Peak ? BLUE 2050 14 Gt • Each technology can make a contribution, but there is no silver bullet ! • Urgent deployment and cost reduction of a number of emerging low-carbon technologies

  6. Economic Feasibility … Negative Costs Positive Costs Current CO2 price (EU-ETS) €14/t CO2 e.g. FC vehicles $500/t CO2 BLUE Tech. Pessimism 500 $200/t CO2 BLUE Tech. Optimism 100 $50/t CO2 ACT 50 $10/bbl oil price increase = $25/tCO2 abatement incentive Under the ETP oil price assumption ($60-65/bbl), CO2 abatements at $200/t come out for free at oil price of $140/bbl (June 2008) !

  7. Is the Current Strategy Correct ? Technology Implementation Challenges and Time Horizon Source: EU SET Plan Implementation Challenges Time Horizon Today 2050 Key mitigation technologies involve high implementation challenges !

  8. The Deployment Challenge … Capacity Addition in ETP BLUE (GW) Ambitious Deployment Rates and Targets ! 2500 • End-use efficiency rate: from less than <1%/yr to 1.7%/yr • II Gen biofuels (ligno-cellulosic, BTL): < $0.6/l in 2020 • 1 mln HVs in 2010 • 1 mln Plug-inVs in 2025 • 800 mln EVs in 2050 • 800 mln FCs in 2050 Wind on-s 2200 2000 1500 Hystorical High: 200 GW Nuc in 1980-90 PV 1200 1000 Nuc III 1050 CSP 800 CCS pg 1100 500 Wind off-s 600 Nuc IV 250 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: IEA ETP data

  9. The Cost Challenge … Construct. Time Learning rate Emissions Fuel Cost Energy Technologies Investment Cost ($x1000/kW) CCGT L H L M Projected 2020-2030 ? Current H H LM L CCGT CCS L H M H COAL PCC SC/UC ? H H MH L COAL PCC CCS COAL IGCC M H MH H ? H H H L COAL IGCC CCS NUC III L L H 0 NUC IV 0 NA ? H L H ? BIOM ST/BIGCC/CHP MH LM LM 0 BIOM COFIRING LM LM M 0 ? LM 0 L 0 WIND ON ? MH 0 LM 0 WIND OFF HYDRO LARGE L 0 H 0 HYDRO SMALL L L 0 0 ? CSP PT/ST LM MH 0 0 CSP SD ? NA L H 0 0 PV Si L MH 0 0 PV TF ? L H 0 0 FC Power Gen ? L H H LM Adv PV 2015 ? H 0 L 0 ? FC Automotive 2020 ? H H L 0? ? Breakthrough Technologies ? 0 9 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Data from IEA 2008 and others sources

  10. Which Technology Revolution ? • Basic and material sciences are currently exploring breakthrough technologies(*) that have the potential to change the way we generate and use energy, and promise short-term advances (2015-2020) and low-cost prospects … • Recently, we have seen new technologies to replace in a few years mature technologies and infrastructure, and radically change our habit (e.g., mobile phones, 1990-2005) … • Can we design a future other than the hard way depicted in current energy scenarios ? Can high-level scientific communities help select promising technology options and lead the process? (*)e.g.: Highly-efficient, low-cost PV; Membranes for CO2 capture; Microalgae for biofuels; Photo-electrolysis; Artificial photo-synthesis; Low-cost FC; Marine energy; HT solar dishes; Gen IV fast breeders; Adv. energy storage; Portable power; Piezoelectric devices, Power electronics; Oled lighting; etc.

  11. Thank You!giorgio.simbolotti@enea.it

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