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Magnetic Fusion Power Development for Global Warming Suppression Jiangang Li 1 ([email protected]), Jie Zhang 2 , Xuru Duan 3 1. Institute of Plasma Physics,CAS, 2. Shanghai Jiaotong University 3. South West Institute of Physics, CNNC 22nd FEC, Oct.13-18, 2008, Geneva Content

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Magnetic Fusion Power Development

for Global Warming Suppression

Jiangang Li1 ([email protected]), Jie Zhang2, Xuru Duan31. Institute of Plasma Physics,CAS, 2. Shanghai Jiaotong University

3. South West Institute of Physics, CNNC

22nd FEC, Oct.13-18, 2008, Geneva


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Content

  • Energy Needs in 21st Century

  • Revolution of Energy Sources

  • Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy Development

  • Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy


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Energy Needs over the World

29.01

Billion TCE

16.13

Billion TCE

2005—2050,average annual growth rate is 1.3%

IEA2005


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Energy Needs in India

1.86

Billion TCE

0.77

Billion TCE

IEA2005


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Energy Needs in China

5.00(6)

Billion TCE

1.68

Billion TCE

(75% coal at moment and about 60% in 2050)

IEA2005


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Total Final Consumption by Fuel

CO2 Emissions by Fuel

Mtoe

Mt of CO2

Global Warming Becomes MoreApparent

Evolution from 1971 to 2004 of World

CO2 Emissions Increase with Fuel Consumption

IEA2005


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8

Global Warming Becomes More Apparent

  • China’s CO2 emission (5.06 billion ton)

    • 2nd largest in the world

    • 18% of the total amount

    • Below the world average level per capita

IEA2005


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What if Greenland Breakup and Melt Away ?

Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt in 1992

Now

The Sea level Today

Forecast

If Greenland breakup and melt away

The sea level will rise


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Revolution of Energy SourcesEfforts Made in China

Climate Change

Technology Innovation to Reduce CO2 Emission

Low Carbon Economy

Near Zero Emission

IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

CO2 capture and sequestration

Energy Technology R&D

Reduce the cost of wind and solar power generation

4th generation nuclear power technique & fusion energy

Alternate fuels for transportation

Hydrogen energy


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2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Efforts Made in China

Roadmap for Renewable Energy Power Technology-20% in 2050

1Mw 5Mw 8-10Mw

Onshore demonstration and generalize

Wind

Offshore demonstration and generalize

10Mw 100Mw

Photovoltaic generation plant demonstration connected to the grid

Solar

10-100Mw

Solar heat power plant demonstration connected to the grid

Gasification power plant demonstration and generalize

Biomass

Combustion power plant demonstration and generalize

Geothermic

heat pump, refrigeration, power generation demonstration and generalize

Continuously develop

Hydro

2020

Large-scale development for wind power, steady development for biomass power

2030

Breakthrough for solar power, form an integrate renewable industry chain

2050

Renewable energy play a leading role


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2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Efforts Made in China

Roadmap for Advanced Nuclear Power Technology-15% in 2050

Promotion of 2nd plus fission reactor

Demonstration of 3rd advanced PWR

Promotion of 3rd advanced PWR

Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of PWR

Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of fast reactor

Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for fast reactor

Nuclear

Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for PWR

Fast reactor module

4th generation of commercial nuclear fast reactor

Demonstration of fast reactor

Demonstration of fusion reactor

Commercial fusion reactor

2020

Commercialization of 3rd generation nuclear power

2030

3rd generation nuclear power bulk-built & fast reactor module established

2050

Fast reactor Steady developed & fusion energy breakthroughs made


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Efforts Made in China

  • Accounts for15% of total installed electric capacity

  • Replace 1billon ton of coal

  • Formation of thermal reactor - fast reactor binarynuclear power system

400!

  • Accounts for8% of total installed electric capacity

  • Replace 0.4billon ton of coal

  • Develop nuclear power plant built in coastal area , east and central of China

  • Accounts for5% of total installed electric capacity

  • Replace0.18 billon ton of coal

  • Develop nuclear power plant in coastal area

200

60


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6%

17%

8%

28%

41%

Efforts Made in China

Without control

With control


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Can We make Contribution

by Fusion Energy Development

An environmentally responsible source ofalmost limitless energy

Fusion Scientist: Making a “Sun” on Earth


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Can Fusion Play a Role in This Century

How?

5 % of total primary energy

Fusion power plant in 2100

China : 150

India : 150

EU : 50

US : 50

Japan : 30

KOREA: 20

Total: 450 GW plant

When?

2018-2038 ITER

2030-2050 DEMO

2040-2060 Proto-Type

2050-- First Power Plant

2060: 5-7 GW power plant

2070: 35

2080 70

2090 140

2100 280 (x3=450!)


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Questions

  • – How long will it take? Next 50 years

  • – Why’s it taking so long?

    Technical difficulties, limited financial and human resources

  • Do we really need another (moving) 50 years?

    It took only 8 years for US land on moon in 60s!

  • –Can we strengthen and accelerate the path to fusion power?


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Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy

New era of Fusion :

Significant progresses have been achieved within 50 years

ITER, broader approach, new superconducting devices in Asia, urgent need for new generation of energy.

More serious consideration of DEMO

GAP analysis, Road map, FAST track…


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GAP Analysis: 30-35 years to Demo

10 year 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years

Build ITER Run ITER Build Run Build

+ IFMIF +IFMIF DEMO DEMO proto-type


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Can we Speed Up Fusion Development

  • A successful ITER project via strong international cooperation

  • Start IFMIF site decision as soon as possible

  • Start DEMO design with strong industry involvement now

  • Most important is to demonstration of electricity generation within 20 years with reduced mission


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Expanded International Cooperation

ITER

JET, JT-60U, JT-60SA

ASDEX-U, DIII-D, HL-2A(M), C-Mod

EAST, KSTAR, Tore-Supra

MAST, NSTX,

SST-1, HT-7,

TCV, TEXTOR, FTU

LHD, W7-X

IFMIF(?)

Small tokomaks

Total: about 1 B $/year exclude ITER

ITER

JET-class

KSATR-class

MAST-U-class

LHD-class

IFMIF

Small tokomaks

Total: less than 1 B $/y !

Necessary test facilities: magnets, H& CD , remote handling, heat flux..

A CTF


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Electricity generation

No need real steady state

Burning plasma control

Sufficient T Breeding

As a CTF

H2 production

Testing tokamak system availability (reliability, buildability,operability and maintainability)

Pfusion~200MW, t = a few hours to weeks

Based on existing technologies:

Option 1: Pure Fusion

A FDF-class with SC coils

Or:

A ST-type compact device

Option 2: Fusion –Fission hybrid

Fusion: Q=1-3, P=30-50MW

Fission: M= 20-30, Pt = 0.3-1.5GW

Or:

ITER-type machine with different blanket: Pt =5GW, Pe=1.5GW

EDEMO (within 20 years?)Electricity generation with reduced mission


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A More Bold Approach is Needed

Why?

天时:Very urgent need for new energy (especially for developing country), fusion is one of very few options and easily convinced by public.

地利:ITER starts in Caderache, fusion need in Korea, Russia, especially China and India.

人和: Wide cooperation in fusion lasted for 50 years and will be strengthen in future.


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A More Bold Approach is Needed

How?

  • A quick decision on IFMIF:

    Site, construction, operation, on schedule!

  • Early establishment of DEMO/EDEMO design groups with strong involvement from industry

  • Based on global cooperation (better not fully joint project)

  • Well organized global teams (EU,US,CN.. Could be a few DEMOs)


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ASIPP

Efforts from China

  • Very Strong Supports from top leaders to public

  • Start a new MCF program

  • ITER-CN with industry

  • Domestic MCF

China needs fusion more urgent and would like to be the first user of fusion energy

24


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Summary

  • Fusion development comes to a new era with significant progress during past 50 years.

  • It is too long to wait for another 50 year to get electricity by fusion.

  • A much more aggressive approach should be taken with even greater international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.


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