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You Pick the Winner!

You Pick the Winner!. You’re “doing lunch” with one of Hollywood’s top agents…. He’s pitching a hot new romantic comedy: Lead actor: young, attractive Academy Award winner Lead actress: successful performer (frequently one of “50 Most Beautiful People”)

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You Pick the Winner!

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  1. You Pick the Winner! • You’re “doing lunch” with one of Hollywood’s top agents… • He’s pitching a hot new romantic comedy: • Lead actor: young, attractive Academy Award winner • Lead actress: successful performer (frequently one • of “50 Most Beautiful People”) • Director with a number of recent hits • Both leads getting a lot of press • You need a hit… • Do you “green light” it?

  2. Congratulations! • You just picked “Gigli”--one of the biggest bombs of 2003 • Critics slammed it, nobody went to see it • Budget: $56 M to produce; millions more to promote • Box office: $3.8M opening weekend Welcome to Hollywood!

  3. How Possible Is It To Predict The Success Of A Movie Before Its Release? By: Maren Fawkes May, 21st 2004

  4. What Makes a “Good Movie”? • Visually compelling • Audience identification with characters • Effective pacing • Consistent “vision”—one director, not a committee

  5. “Good Movie”–Genre Requirements Drama • Dynamic tension • Characters in peril • Seemingly unreachable goals • Unrequited love • Satisfactory resolution

  6. “Good Movie”–Genre Requirements Comedy • Does the intended audience laugh? • Is something revealed through humor?

  7. “Good Movie”–Genre Requirements Action/Adventure • Imaginative staging, • effects • Real people • Pacing www.stalbanobserver.co.ulc/_images/dv/6/76/pirates_of_the_Caribbean.

  8. Commercial Success Factors • “Star Power”—Movie & other celebrities • Built-In Audience–Sequels, series, crossovers • Market Trends–What’s hot, what’s not • Marketing–Creating anticipation & big opening Studios rely on what’s worked before or elsewhere

  9. “Star Power”

  10. Built-In Audience • Translation to movies of popular books, comic strips, TV shows, video games, etc. • Sequels/series • Subject matter www.empiremovies.com/posters/spiderman_2_b.html

  11. Market Trends • Rise and fall of audience interest in different genres • Stressful times → nostalgia, escape • Changing demographics • Competitive intelligence Hard to know what audience interest will be in the 2-3 years it takes to make a movie…

  12. Marketing • Advertising • Print media • TV ads • Trailers in theaters • Promotion • Interviews with stars • Previews for critics • Product tie-ins

  13. What Can Go Wrong • “Artistic differences” • Mismatches

  14. Artistic Differences • Personality clashes or competing visions: • – Director and producers • – Director and story or • screenwriter(s) – Director and actor – Actors and actors http://www.unca.edu/housing/images/services/video- game-lending-libraryvideos/covers/charlie's-angels.jpg

  15. Mismatches • No chemistry between lead actors • Wrong role for actor • Wrong time of release Imusic.artistdirect.com/soundtracks/photos/sixdayssevennights.gif • Audience expectations • Bad marketing campaign • Demographic missed www.caan.ee//taustad/filmid/Pearl%20harbor%203.jpg

  16. Warning Signs • Director or key actors replaced • Delayed release, re-edit • Direct to video release • No promotion by stars • Large # of screenwriters Watch out for films by “Alan Smithee”…

  17. Top Grossing U.S. Movies

  18. Notable “Bombs”

  19. Conclusion • “How possible is it to predict the success of a movie before its release?” • Impossible to predict reliably • Execution failures • Marketing can at best create initial interest • Audience fickleness • Critical response • Consequences: • Movies are a powerful reflection of our culture, but commercial risk limits variety & opportunities

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