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Measuring the labour force in Brazilian rural areas: problems and possibilities of IBGE’s statistics. Date 02/11/04. BRAZIL: Agrarian Reform did not happen as a planned act. A high and perverse degree of land ownership concentration.

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slide1

Measuring the labour force in Brazilian rural areas:

problems and possibilities of IBGE’s statistics

Date 02/11/04

slide2

BRAZIL: Agrarian Reform did not happen as a planned act.

A high and perverse degree of land ownership concentration.

XIXth: conservative agrarian laws (“free man and captive land”)

XXth: the “conservative modernization”

I

affected negatively ownership and access to land

What to expect from XXIth ?

slide3

New GOVERNMENT elected by democratic process...

Is it enough to establish a new STATE of things ?

the role and constitution of the State

Consider: the role of the (National) statistics (Office)

the roles of Agriculture in Brazilian Development

What to assess?

Rural?

Labour?

slide4

Perspective: emphasis on TERRITORIALDEVELOPMENT

The way of dealing:

”the identification of information needs and design of instruments require

some conception of social and economic relations and often reflect

theoretical schemes from the social sciences” (STAR, P. 1983)

SPATIAL (GEOGRAPHICAL) approach: NOT BASED ON THE DICHOTOMY RURAL-URBAN

RURAL: which criteria is the definition based on?

slide5

Regional Development Policies:

A consequence of the local particularities (and ambitions)

A way to integrate local to larger spatial organizations

Agricultural Statistics - sectoral definition is still valid

The need of integrating: “social and spatial sustainability indicators”

... LABOUR as an important variable

slide6

Agricultural Statistics: different treatment from other sectors:

data limited to production variables (including crops, livestock, forestry, vegetal extraction and fishery)

Industry and Services (Annual Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries and Annual Survey of Services)

> income and occupation are investigated in both surveys

slide7

Statistics of Agricultural Labour Force

  • SOURCES OF DATA:
  • NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD SAMPLE SURVEY
  • CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE
  • OTHER POSSIBILITY
slide8

NHSS

  • POSITIVE:
  • evaluates agricultural and no-agricultural activities (based on the enterprise activity)
  • two reference periods: last week of September and past 365 days
  • provides data of casual agricultural workers *
  • investigates production for own-consumption
  • estimates income (wages, goods, production)
slide9

NHSS

  • NEGATIVE:
  • limited geographic coverage (excludes rural area of 6 States of the North Region >>> a vast area with only 2,1% of population, BUT 10% of workers in agriculture.)**
  • sample size and design “contaminated” by urban-rural definition
  • very low statistical precision of estimates for small areas and detailed classification (sampling error of survey)
slide10

CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE

  • POSITIVE:
  • provides detailed information for both spatial and qualitative levels
  • a detailed portrait of the universe related to agricultural activities
  • counts workers on agricultural and non-agricultural activities involved in farm support.
slide11

CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE

  • NEGATIVE:
  • high cost and the dependency on politic decision (State Budget)
  • periodicity allows only structural analyses (very limited to labour force)
  • does not investigate workers employed by intermediaries (part of the casual workers)
  • sex and age are only investigated for people who are occupied on the reference date (31/12)
slide12

CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT OTHER POSSIBILITY

Due to the approximation of agriculture dynamic towards to other economic sectors

The use of subjective surveys for short term agricultural production statistics “in crisis”

Difficulties in creating and updating a register

the lack of labour data in agricultural statistics reveals the uncertainty and indecision about the conception, design and implementation of public policies that involves the sector

slide13

OTHER POSSIBILITY

The thematic enlargement (labour force characteristics) of the agricultural production surveys can be tested in selected areas and the results can be checked with the next Census of Agriculture in a short interval of time

Crops and Livestock Surveys allow the maximum data desegregation and could be a “continuous procedure” of labour evaluation

It’s unthinkable to cogitate on the NHSS or the development of any other sample survey with the same potential for providing detailed information.

slide14

Measuring the labour force in Brazilian rural areas:

problems and possibilities of IBGE’s statistics

Date 02/11/04

slide15

THE ROLE(S) OF AGRICULTURE

3 development scenarios:

1. Concentrate attention (and investments) in obtaining permanent competitiveness gains in modern agriculture specialized in the main commodities for exportation and linked to agribusiness (agroindustrial complexes). Other sectors more efficient on creating jobs and increasing workers income would be positively affected.

slide16

THE ROLE(S) OF AGRICULTURE

2. Considering that other activities wouldn’t be able to occupy the inefficient farmers, The Agrarian Reform and the support to the agriculture of “non-competitive” farmers are seen exclusively as social policies against poverty. Part of agriculture as an “economy without production” - “a social security valve”.

slide17

THE ROLE(S) OF AGRICULTURE

3. Agriculture as a central element (but not the only one) in certain regions development. Diversification and integration is the key to a sustainable territorial (social and economic) growth. “Territorial solidarity” as a principle.

Agrarian Reform Settlements as a beginning and not as an end of a process of social and political integration, posing demands beyond the land access: investments in health, education, credits, transport, technical assistance, production processing and commercialization, creation of enterprises, etc.

slide18

URBAN AND RURAL ARE NOT SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS

ALTHOUGH IT’S POSSIBLE TO VERIFY SOME COHERENCE IN DATA THAT DISTINGUISH URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION, SUCH DIFFERENCIATION HAS NO CONCEPTUAL CONTROL

THE USE IN PUBLIC POLICY MAKING IS PRECARIOUS

CREATES DIFFICULTIES TO INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

...the local approach, which considers territorial system in its articulation of cities of different sizes with a diversified country-side, explains the present logic of spatial differentiation. (SARACENO, 94)

slide19

IBGE: ADOPTION OF ADMINISTRATIVE LIMITS OF MUNICIPALITIES (“URBAN PERIMETER”)

  • SINCE 1991: ADDITIONAL CLASSIFICATION TO THE CENSUS ENUMERATION SECTORS.
  • CRITERIA:
  • DEMOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION
  • IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF URBANISED AREA
  • EXISTENCE OF CERTAIN SERVICES

3 URBAN AND 5 RURAL CATEGORIES

TWO OF SPECIAL INTEREST:

1. URBAN NOT URBANISED

2. RURAL AGGLOMERATION OF URBAN EXTENSION

slide20

Blocks % Pop % Territ % Microrreg % Munic

Urban 50 20 10 10

Ambivalent 20 20 20 10

Rural 30 60 70 80

Total 100 100 100 100

SOURCE: VEIGA, J.E., 2004

slide21

Percentage of urban population in Brazil using NHSS

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002

72,6 72,8 73,2 73,6 74,3 74,1

78,0 78,3 79,0 79,4 79,6 79,6 79,7

83,9 84,1

SOURCE - IBGE, National Household Sample Survey.

Percentage of population in Brazil occupied in agriculture using NHSS

1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002

28,4 27,5 26,1 24,5 24,4 23,6 24,4

20,9 20,6

SOURCE - IBGE, National Household Sample Survey.

slide22

Growth surface of crops (temporary and permanent) - 1.000 ha

1999 2001

N 2.569 2.378

NE 10.822 11.101

SE 11.277 10.916

S 16.446 16.999

CO 9.583 10.241

BRA 50.700 51.637

SOURCE - IBGE, Municipal Crops Production Annual Survey.

slide23

Population occupied / Growth surface

1999 2001

rice 1.049.429 / 3.851.178 819.174 (-22%) / 3.171.300 (-18%)

manioc 1.661.373 / 1.635.933 1.254.248 (-25%) / 1.735.149 (+ 6%)

SOURCES - IBGE, National Household Sample Survey / Municipal Crops Production Annual Survey.