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The Landuse Evolution and Impact Assessment Model. L E A M. Brian Deal LEAM Laboratory Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of Illinois. Overview. Why model? What is LEAM? Preliminary results What role does LEAM play? Next steps. What is Modeling?.

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brian deal leam laboratory department of urban and regional planning university of illinois

The Landuse Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

L E A M

Brian Deal

LEAM Laboratory

Department of Urban and Regional Planning

University of Illinois

overview
Overview
  • Why model?
  • What is LEAM?
  • Preliminary results
  • What role does LEAM play?
  • Next steps
what is modeling
What is Modeling?
  • Describing how systems behave
    • Describing different system components
    • Describing different mechanisms that cause change
  • Descriptions are typically mathematical expressions
  • Graphic representations are easier to understand and manipulate
why model
Why Model?
  • Complex systems behave in unexpected (emergent) ways
    • Caused by feedbacks and lags
    • Caused by uncertainty
  • Understanding systems requires knowing
    • How systems behave “normally”
    • A range of other systems behaviors
      • What-if scenarios
why model1
Why Model?
  • The model building process is as important as the end result
    • Helps groups develop a shared understanding
    • Provides a common frame of reference
    • Helps create institutional memory
leam approach

data

decisions

models

impacts

LEAM Approach
  • Captures causal mechanisms of land-use change
    • Environmental, Social, Economic
    • Appropriate scales
  • Captures dynamics of complex systems
    • Feedbacks
    • Lags
  • Captures impacts of land use change
    • Causal relationships
    • Environmental, Social, Economic
  • Incorporates calibration and validation
    • Quantify uncertainty
slide8

Land-use Drivers

Land-use Change

Model Drivers

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

Land-use Impacts

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

Map 1

Map 2

Map 3

SME

GIS

Maps

Impact Assessment

development score
Development Score

Slope Map

Slope Map

Slope Score Map

slide15

Base 2030

Yellow/Red is new growth

slide18

LEAM base

Overlay on

Natural resource

inventory

slide19

LEAM base run

On Common

Ground plan

scenario analysis
Scenario Analysis
  • LEAM analysis of
    • Public policy choices
    • Public investments
  • I-90 Interchange at US23
    • Current condition vs added interchange
slide21

Comparison map

High growth run

leams role
LEAMs Role
  • Legacy Planning
  • Broader applications
legacy planning applications
Legacy Planning Applications
  • Resource risk assessment
  • Conflict emergence over time
  • Dynamic interactions
broader planning applications
Broader Planning Applications
  • Beyond Legacy planning
  • Assessing future outcomes
    • Public policy
    • Investments
    • What-if scenarios
  • Assessing implications
  • SOP
    • Dynamic planning
    • Uncovering inconsistencies
next steps
Next Steps
  • Break Out Sessions
    • Groups of approx eight
    • Local expertise and experience
    • Set of diverse maps are provided
      • Resource inventory maps
        • Agricultural Resources, Cultural Resources, Natural Resources
      • System-of-Plans maps
        • Region, County, Southwest portion, Marengo, Huntley, Unified
    • LEAM land-use change maps
      • Base run, New Ramp scenario, Comparing land-use pattern with regional plans, Comparing land-use pattern with resource inventories
  • Are these building blocks more generally useful to planning in McHenry County?
  • What improvements can be made to them?
break out sessions
Break Out Sessions
  • Session 1
  • Consider how the resource inventory, the System of Plans, and LEAM simulations can be used to create elements of a Local Legacy plan in McHenry County.
    • 1. Are the data in the resource inventories correct? What additional data about resources are needed?
    • 2. Which resources are already protected? Which resources are addressed in plans? Which resources are not addressed?
break out sessions1
Break Out Sessions
  • Session 2
  • New interchange on I-90 at US 23 in southwest McHenry County.
    • 1. How does this proposal relate to other proposals or expectations in existing plans? Are there interesting differences among existing plans in terms of expected land uses, regulations, and capital investments?
    • 2. How might the System of Plans, LEAM, or the Legacy Plan help you usefully discuss and persuasively oppose or support this proposal?