5.1 Day 1. Intro The Idea of Probability Myths about Randomness. Is the claim 1 in 6 wins legit?. Dr. Pepper is running a new promotion. Their label states that 1 in 6 wins. The winning caps say “You’re a winner!” and the remaining caps say “Try Again”
The Idea of Probability
Myths about Randomness
0 will never occur
1 will occur every repetition
.5 likely to occur half the time.
Remember probability is never exact, just because something happens 60% of the time once, doesn’t mean it will always occur 60% of the time.
0 0.01 0.3 0.6 0.99 1
Suppose a married man and woman both carry a gene for cystic fibrosis but don’t have the disease themselves. According to the laws of genetics, the probability that their first child will develop cystic fibrosis is 0.25.
7. The figure below shows the results of a basketball player shooting several free throws. Explain what this graph says about change behavior in the short run and long run.
9. Due for a hit. A very good professional baseball player gets a hit about 35% of the time over an entire season. After the play failed to hit safely in six straight at bats, a TV commentator said, “He is due for a hit by the law of the averages.” Is that right? Why?
Playing Pick 4. The pick 4 games in many state lotteries announce a four digit winning number each day. You can think of the winning number as a four digit group from a table of random digits. You win the jackpot if your choice matches the winning number. The winnings are divided among all players who matched the winning number. That suggests a way to get an edge.