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NCEP Operational Prediction: Current status and future plans Stephen J. Lord Director NCEP Environmental Modeling Center. NCEP: “where America’s climate and weather services begin”. Overview. Mission comparison with International Centers Current model suite Performance comparison Global NWP

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slide1
NCEP Operational Prediction:Current status and future plansStephen J. LordDirectorNCEP Environmental Modeling Center

NCEP: “where America’s climate and weather services begin”

overview
Overview
  • Mission comparison withInternational Centers
    • Current model suite
  • Performance comparison
    • Global NWP
    • Hurricanes
    • S/I Climate
    • Precipitation (US)
  • Improved strategy for forecast system enhancements
  • Future model suite
  • Summary
slide4

2005 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies

Forecast

GFDL

Hurricane

G

D

A

S

G

E

N

S

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

ETA

RSM

SREF

Dispersion

GFS

Sev

Wx

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

E

D

A

S

CFS

Eta

Air Quality

Noah Land Surface Model

RUC

L D A S

slide5

RUC

NAM Anl

GFS Anl

Waves

Hur

SREF

NAM Fcst

GFS Fcst

GENS

performance comparison
Performance Comparison

Global NWP

“Constant”

gap for NH

Gap

widening

for SH

slide8

Performance Comparison

Seasonal Forecasts

NCEP CFS

wrt OIv2 1971-2000 climatology

CA (Statistical)

European

slide9

Performance Comparison

Global Models

---ECMWF

--- UKM

___NCEP

North American run

THREAT

THREAT

24

Precipitation (24-72 h)

7/1/04-6/30/05

48

72

BIAS

1993 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005

improved strategy
Improved Strategy
  • Engage more partners from the US weather and climate community to:
    • Promote use of operational forecast systems by “non-operational” users
  • Adopt community model concept to:
    • Supply improved diversity of scientific solutions
    • Enhance links and partnerships between research and operational communities
    • Support “Test Beds” which provide
      • Technical support for codes and data
      • More efficient transition to operations path based on results
    • Influence resource decisions based on operational research needs
improved strategy cont
Improved Strategy (cont)
  • Examples
    • NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
    • Real time ocean modeling
    • Supported community code (Data Assimilation)
    • WRF
nasa noaa dod joint center for satellite data assimilation jcsda
NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)
  • Multi-agency partnership (NOAA, NASA, DOD)
  • Mission
    • Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate prediction models
      • Current generation data
      • Prepare for next-generation (e.g. NPOESS, METOP, COSMIC) instruments
  • Supports applied research
    • Partners
    • University, Government and Commercial Labs
examples of instrument specific development at the jcsda

A1

New

A1

current

Examples of Instrument-Specific Development at the JCSDA
  • GPS Occultation (COSMIC)
  • AIRS
  • MODIS winds
  • Surface emissivity for microwave instruments
  • Advanced SST physical retrievals for IR & MW instruments
us godae global ocean prediction with hycom
US GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOM
  • Goal: to develop and demonstrate real-time, operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins
  • NCEP Partners with
    • University of Miami/RSMAS
    • NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC
    • NOAA PMEL, AOML
    • Los Alamos National Laboratory
    • Others (international, commercial)
  • Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model – HYCOM)
  • Funded FY 2003-2007 by NOPP

Chesapeake Bay

hycom deployment schedule
HYCOM Deployment Schedule

North Atlantic

World Oceans

North-East Pacific

Hawaii

FY 2006 2007 2008

Initiate interactions with NOS on bay and estuary model boundary conditions; Initiate wave-current interactions. Storm Surge Modeling

Ecosystem

Modeling

Global atmosphere-ocean Coupling and Hurricane-Ocean Coupling

improved strategy cont1
Improved Strategy (cont)
  • Data Assimilation Code
    • Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis
      • Applied to global and regional (WRF) analyses
      • Community-based (currently with minimum support)
        • 46 users
        • NASA/GMAO has adopted code for their research and operations
      • Ingests full suite of conventional and remotely-sensed (satellite and radar) observations
        • Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM)
      • Contains advanced treatment of background errors
      • Basis of advanced data assimilation techniques
        • High time and space density data
        • Simplified 4D-Var capability
        • Ready for ensemble information input
slide17
WRF

Explicit Cores

(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

  • Mesoscale community model: in development since 1997 – supported through USWRP, NOAA, DOD, FAA, UCAR, NSF
  • Includes support for Boulder Development Testbed Center (DTC) and operational implementation at NCEP and DOD
  • Currently supports same real-time code run at DTC and NCEP

NCAR

ARW

C

M

I

NCEP

NMM

wrf implementation schedule
WRF Implementation Schedule
  • HiResWindow (Both cores): Implemented operationally at NCEP on 6/28/05 (~5 km)
  • WRF SREF members: Operational FY05 (4th Qtr)
  • North American WRF: Operational in FY06
  • WRF SREF: Fully operational in FY07
  • Hurricane WRF: Operational in FY07*
  • Rapid Refresh WRF: Operational in FY07*
  • WRF Chem: Beyond 2008*

* As resources allow

slide19

2005 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies

Forecast

GFDL

Hurricane

G

D

A

S

G

E

N

S

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

ETA

RSM

SREF

Dispersion

GFS

Sev

Wx

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

E

D

A

S

CFS

Eta

Air Quality

Noah Land Surface Model

RUC

L D A S

slide20

2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies

Forecast

Hurricane

WRF

G

G

S

I

G

E

N

S

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

ETA?

RSM?

SREF

Dispersion

GFS

Sev

Wx

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

R

G

S

I

CFS

WRF

Chem WRF*

Air Quality

Noah Land Surface Model

Rapid Refresh WRF

L D A S

*FY08

summary
Summary
  • NCEP, DOD, research community making progress on community model development and application
    • JCSDA
    • HYCOM
    • WRF
    • Community codes
  • Need to build off this community effort and increased partnerships
    • Improve ongoing development and implementation process
  • Work toward a full Earth System Modeling Framework for global and regional applications
  • Ensure that the entire end-to-end effort is properly resourced
earth system modeling framework
Earth System Modeling Framework
  • ESMF provides tools for turning model codes into componentswith standard interfaces and standard drivers
  • ESMF provides data structures and common utilities that components use
    • to organize codes
    • to improve performance portability
    • for common services such as data communications, regridding, time management and message logging
ncep ecmwf ukm comparison
NCEP, ECMWF, UKM Comparison

Operating strategy

ncep ecmwf ukm comparison1
NCEP, ECMWF, UKM Comparison

Organizational Factors

ncep ecmwf ukm comparison2
NCEP, ECMWF, UKM Comparison

Scientific Development &

Community Relationships

outreach cont
Outreach (cont)
  • NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
    • Global wx: GMAO
    • Radiative transfer: NOAA/NESDIS, AER, U. Wisc.
    • Ocean data assimilation: U Md
    • Land surface modeling & data assim: NASA/HSB, Princeton U, U Wash.
outreach cont1
Outreach (cont)
  • WRF
    • Mesoscale wx (NAM, 2006): NOAA/FSL, NCAR, UOK, etc
      • WRF-ARW & WRF-NMM are “5 km” models in NCEP operations
      • WRF-ARW members in Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Fall ’05
    • Hurricane (2007): URI, NOAA/AOML
    • Rapid refresh (2007): NOAA/FSL
    • Code convergence for mesoscale forecast systems
    • SREF model diversity can be managed with minimum cost
  • Climate Test Bed
    • S/I: GFDL, NASA/GMAO
    • Unified forecast system
      • GFS: NOAA/FSL, U. Wisc. – hybrid coordinate model
      • Gridpoint Spectral Interpolation (GSI) analysis
resource comparison
Resource Comparison
  • Ingredients for Improved Numerical Forecast Systems
    • Balance between
      • Observations
      • Data Assimilation & Model technology
      • Computing resources
        • Processor growth equal to Moore’s Law
        • On-line disk proportional to processor capability
        • Archive proportional to processor capability
        • System support proportional to
          • Number of computers
          • Number of users
      • Computing resources applied to
        • Operations
        • Integration and Testing upgrades
slide30
Computing ComparisonsInternational Operational Weather & Climate Forecast Centers2005-2006WMO Survey (Majewski, 2005)
emc mission
EMC Mission

In response to operational requirements:

  • Maintain the scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast systems
    • Adapt to format changes and other changing operational requirements
    • Adapt to new computing hardware
    • Monitor and ensure the integrity of operational observing systems
  • Enhance (Test & Improve) Numerical Forecasts Through Advanced
    • Data assimilation techniques
    • Model physics (parameterizations)
    • Numerical methods
    • Computational efficiency
  • Transitionand DevelopOperational Numerical Forecast Systems for:
    • Weather prediction (domestic, global, 1-15 days)
    • Ocean prediction (daily to annual, coastal to global)
    • Climate prediction (seasonal to inter-annual)

Enhance: Test and improve

NCEP’s numerical forecast

systems via scientific upgrades,

tuning, additional observations,

in response to user requirements

Transition and Develop: transform & integrate code, algorithms, techniques from research status to operational

status on NCEP computers

Maintain: Modify current

operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes

fy05 emc budget
FY05 EMC Budget

Total: $17.5 M

Funding Sources

Kelly report (2000) recommendation: 75% ORF, 25% “soft”

2002 budget supplement and adjustment: $2.8 M

human resource comparison
Human Resource Comparison

Global & Mesoscale Dev

Global Dev Only

NCEP

UKMET

ECMWF

NCEP

Operations

  • UKMET twice NCEP for Global & Mesoscale development
  • ECMWF 80% more than NCEP for Global development
  • ECMWF Ops same as NCEP ops
  • ECMWF covers computational
  • efficiency and porting to new
    • architecture

ECMWF

NCEP

science plan for catching up
Science plan for catching up
  • Goal: to produce the highest forecast scores by 2010
    • Synoptic scale forecasts
    • QPF
    • Hurricanes
    • Aviation
    • Marine & land transportation
    • Week 2 to S/I climate
  • Advanced data assimilation methods
    • Better use of time dimension
    • Improved background covariances
      • Flow dependence
      • Ensemble methods
    • New development (with JCSDA)
      • Clouds & precipitation
      • Snow, Ice & polar regions
      • Land & ocean surface
    • Adjoint of analysis system for improved tuning & understanding (with NASA)
science plan for catching up cont
Science plan for catching up (cont)
  • Improved diagnostic analysis
    • Increased case study analysis
    • Work on “bust” cases
    • Greater effort on total system tuning
  • Improved scientific development
    • Eddy simulation models* to advance PBL, stratus, stratocumulus parameterizations
    • Cloud resolving models* to advance cumulus and cloud fraction parameterizations
    • ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS initial states with GFS
  • Higher resolution
  • Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Ice coupling

* Currently done by UKMET

science plan for catching up cont1
Science plan for catching up (cont)
  • Enhanced ensemble systems
    • Data assimilation
    • Postprocessed, downscaled products
    • International ensemble system
  • Enhanced community collaborations & outreach
    • Outreach
      • Education on best use of products +
      • Regular Workshops+
    • Full involvement in
      • International Model intercomparison projects
      • Field experiments+
    • Vigorous Visiting Scientist Program
    • WRF, global (weather & S/I climate) systems
    • USWRP, NSF research support

+ Currently done by ECMWF

science plan for catching up cont2
Science plan for catching up (cont)
  • Single forecast system
    • Applicable to global & mesoscale (nonhydrostatic)
  • Software engineering group
    • Design systems which are easier to maintain
    • Improved software efficiency (so scientists don’t have to do it)
organizational political factors cont
Organizational & Political Factors (cont)
  • Scientific Development & Community Relationships
ecmwf ncep emc nco od comparison for global wx climate
ECMWF – NCEP(EMC,NCO, OD)comparison for global wx & climate

* Clearly overestimated: NCEP OD, NCO + EMC (Global Wx & Climate)

human resource comparison cont
Human Resource Comparison (cont)
  • UKMET three times more than NCEP for Satellite Data Assimilation
slide43

NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agency

&

International

Effort

Service

Centers

Field

Offices

EMC

NOAA

Research

NCO

EMC

Observation

System

Life cycle

Support

Service Centers

User

OPS

Test Beds

JCSDA

CTB

WRF/Model

JHT

Operations

R&D

Delivery

Transition from Research to Operations

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

Concept of Operations

Requirements

Criteria

slide44

NCEP’s (Modeling) Transition to Operations: Focus on EMC and NCO

Effort

EMC

NCO

EMC

Observation

System

Life cycle

Support

Service Centers

User

OPS

1

2

3

5

7

8

4

6

Operations

R&D

Delivery

Test Beds

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

5. Level II:-

Preliminary

Testing

(DA/Higher Resolution)

4. Level I:-

Preliminary

Testing

(Lower Resolution)

7. NCO Pre-

Implementation

Testing

6. EMC Pre-

Implementation

Testing (Packaging and Calibration)

3. Interface with Operational Codes

1. Identified for Selection

2. Code/Algorithm Assessment and/or

Development

8. Implementation

Delivery

Concept of Operations

Requirements

Criteria

transition steps modeling
Transition Steps (Modeling)

Identification for Selection

1

Code/Algorithm Assessment and/or Development

2

3

Interface with Operational Codes

4

Level I: Preliminary Testing (Lower Resolution)

5

Level II: Preliminary Testing (DA/Higher Resolution)

EMC Pre-Implementation Testing (Packaging/Calibration)

6

NCO Pre-Implementation Testing

7

Implementation/Delivery

8

anomaly correlation for 5 day forecasts of 500hpa geopotential height
Anomaly correlation for 5-day forecasts of 500hPa geopotential height

Improvement

From latest

GFS

Implementation

(P)

Northern Hemisphere (20N-80N)

O P E U

O P E U

Southern Hemisphere (20S-80S)

noaa planning resource allocation
NOAA Planning & Resource Allocation
  • Example of new resources for expanded mission
    • Air Quality
      • Contractor personnel
      • Computing supplement
      • NWS HQ management
      • EMC management resources lacking
  • NOAA Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution System (PPBES)
    • Environmental Modeling Program (EMP)
    • Addresses resources vs. forecast requirements
      • Human
      • Computing
      • Observational
additional research computing
Additional Research Computing
  • Former NCEP operational computer
    • 1/3 current operational capability
    • Allocated to 3 major projects
      • Satellite data assimilation
      • Climate forecast development
      • Advanced modeling (WRF, global)
  • New NOAA “research” computer in procurement
    • October 2006 delivery
    • Replaces former NCEP operational computer
ncep global model strategy esmf
NCEP Global Model Strategy & ESMF
  • Concept of operations
    • Single system for global and regional models
    • Performance permitting
      • Migration to single model or
      • Multiple dynamics and physics options in single structure
    • Single verification, observations data base obeying WMO standards
    • Single analysis code
    • All components ESMF compatible
      • Enables multiple models and standard for coupling models
      • Decreases code maintenance and code reuse
  • Overall positive experience at Met Office & ECMWF
the environmental forecast process
The Environmental Forecast Process

Observations

Data

Assimilation

Analysis

Model Forecast

Numerical

Forecast

System

Post-processed Model Data

Forecaster

User (public, industry…)