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I Latin American and the Caribbean Workshop. Assesment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) 27-30 May 2003 Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de. Introduccion to Extreme Events and Climate Change. Ier. Taller Latinoamericano y del Caribe (AIACC)

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I latin american and the caribbean workshop

I Latin American and the Caribbean Workshop

Assesment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)

27-30 May 2003

Luis Jose Mata

l.mata@uni-bonn.de


Introduccion to extreme events and climate change

Introduccion to Extreme Events and Climate Change

Ier. Taller Latinoamericano y del Caribe (AIACC)

San Jose, Costa Rica, Mayo, 2003


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Luis J. Mata 1 M.Rusticucci 2, S.Solman 3 J. B. Valdés 4

1Center for Develompment Research, University of Bonn, Germany, l.mata@uni-bonn.de

2 Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, mati@at.fcen.uba.ar

3 CIMA (Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera) and Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, solman@at1.fcen.uba.ar

4 Dept. of Civil Engineering and SAHRA (Sustainability for Semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) Center, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, jvaldes@u.arizona.edu

ZEF


Outline ideas
Outline(ideas)

1- Some fundamental from IPCC TAR

2- Climate change is not only about changes in average values —in addition to changes in the mean it is very important to examine trends in extreme events.

3- Theoretical view—linear increase in the mean and variability imply a nonlinear increase of climate extremes

4- This theoretic matter is confronted with some observations

5- Adaptation and needs of good forecasting



Estimates of confidence in observed and projected change in some extreme events
Estimates of confidence in observed and projected change in some extreme events

Estimates of confidence in observed and projected change in some extreme events


Examples of enso impacts on several latin american countries
Examples of ENSO impacts on several Latin American Countries some extreme events

Source: Mata & Campos, 2001


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Type some extreme events

Description

Simple extremes

Individual local weather variables exceeding critical level on a continuous scale

(e.g.,temperature, precipitation)

Complex extremes

Severe weather associated with particular climatic phenomena, often requiring a critical combination of variables (e.g., tropical cyclones)

Unique or singular phenomena

A plausible future climatic state with potentially extreme large-scale or global outcomes

(e.g., THC)

Typology of Extreme Events

Source: Chapter 1 IPCC, 2001


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Temperature and Precipitation some extreme events

- The increased in temperature is associated with an stronger warming in daily minimum temperatures than maximum (Easterling et al., 1997)

- Global precipitation has also increased since the late 19th century (IPCC, 2001).

- Given these increases, it is expected that there would also be increases in extreme events (Mearns et al., 1984)


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

The planet averaged an even 14.0 C between 1961-90. The average temperature in 2002 was about 14.55 the second warmest year on record

Global average mean temperature has increased by 0.6± 0.2 ° C since the late 19th century


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Climate change is not only about changes in average values—in addition to changes in the mean it is very important to examine trends in extreme events



I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Was these extreme? Yes!!!—but not implausible given the historical evidence

Heavy Precipitation and landslides

Figure 4. Rainfall occurred in Venezuela on December 1999 caused over 30,000 deaths and great economic losses.

Annual maxima 951mm in 1954

cumulative

daily

Source: MARN,2000

LJM,2002


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

They claim that the 1999 event has a sizeable probability which implies that such an occurence within a reasonably short time horizon could have been anticipated




I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Water Extremes event?

Mozambique Flood

Bonn Flood

(Rhein River)


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Location event?

(Continent)

Duration

(Days)

Affected

Region (sq km)

Damage

(USD per

Sq. km)

C. Europe

(Europe)

18

(August)

252.300

79.270

S. Russia

(Asia)

12

(June)

224.600

1.945

W. Venezuela

(South America)

11

(July)

224.900

13,34

NW China

(Asia)

10

(June)

252.000

1.587

Some floods in summer(June-August 2002)

DRESDEN

Photo: C.Stache/AP

Source: Darmouth Flood Observatory


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Theory event?

An increase in mean and variance imply a

nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

± 1 SD event?

Threshold

Threshold

Probability of high extremes

Probability of low extremes

New Mean

Mean T0

LJM,2002


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Observations event?


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Figure 5. Annual precipitation PDF at Corrientes, Argentina event?

Mean 1902-1944= 1186.95 mm

Mean 1945-1999 =1431.00 mm

Density

LJM,2003

Annual rainfall in mm

Source: Olga Penalba, personal comunication 2002


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Figure 3. Extreme value distributions of maximum flows on Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997)

Source: Valdés, 2002 personal communication


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Something about adaptation Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997)


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Threshold Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997)

Threshold

Probability of low extremes

Coping range

Probability of high extremes

Adaptation candecrease the probability of extremes

animation4


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Adaptation Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997)

Threshold

Threshold

Probability of low extremes

Probability of high extremes

Adaptation candecrease the probability of extremes

animation5

LJM,2002


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Anticipatory Adaptation Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997)

Due to a good flood forecasting

Photo: L.J.Mata,1998


I latin american and the caribbean workshop

Gracias Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997)