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  1. Technology progress Skills: none Concepts: technology refinement versus technology shift, progress in processing and memory, storage, and communication technology, pre-electronic computers This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

  2. Where does this topic fit? • Internet concepts • Applications • Technology • Implications • Internet skills • Application development • Content creation • User skills

  3. Information technologies Processing and memory Communication Storage

  4. Technology refinement and technology shifts

  5. Technology refinement 1905

  6. Technology refinement 1903 First flight

  7. Technology shift

  8. Technology shift

  9. Storage progress 960 bits 274,877,906,944 bits Shift or refinement?

  10. Storage technology shift From punch cards to magnetic recording

  11. Technology improvement – magnetic storage • 1956 • 5 million 6-bit characters • 50 two-foot-diameter disks • 2009 • 320 billion 8-bit bytes • 1.8 inch disk Shift or refinement?

  12. Storage technology shifts

  13. Four ways to store bits – storage technology shifts

  14. Processing and memory progress 8 on/off switches 2 billion on/off switches Shift or refinement?

  15. Communication progress 40 billion bits per second 100 bits per second

  16. Progress enables new data types

  17. Before the programmable, electronic computer Atansoff-Berry Charles Babbage Vannevar Bush IBM 602

  18. The bottom line

  19. Summary

  20. Self-study questions We looked at information storage, processing and communication technology. What other technologies are undergoing dramatic improvement? If the first cars got only 1 mile per gallon, and that doubled every two years, what would our mileage have been 20 years later? Thirty years later? What have been some of the applications made possible by improved IT in the last five years? What have been some of the implications of IT progress for individuals? What have been some of the implications of IT progress for organizations? What have been some of the implications of IT progress for society? What sorts of changes might you see during your lifetime?

  21. Resources Ray Kurzweil is controversial and very optimistic about the technology progress (IT and other) and its implications for the future: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns There is much more on Kurzweil’s Web site: http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Gordon Moore published a widely quoted article predicting that the number of transistors on an economically feasible integrated chip would double every 18-24 months. This is called “Moore’s Law:” ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf For more on Moore’s Law, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law Wolfram Alpha Moore’s law calculator:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=moore's+law A short article on the discovery of the transistor: http://focus.aps.org/story/v23/st16 New York Times article on an early demonstration of television: http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/Test-TV-NYT-8apr27.htm Video of Ivan Sutherland demonstrating Sketchpad: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ivan+sutherland+sketchpad&aq=f Two videos on the first transistor and the way transistors work: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdYHljZi7ys http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvrjIJw3OSU&feature=related