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An Overview of CPC’s Development Branch. Arun Kumar Chief, Development Branch Climate Prediction Center. Current Activities. Global and Regional Climate Analysis Real-time Global Climate Monitoring Forecast Tool Development/ Improvement Predictions, Verifications, and Expert Assessments

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an overview of cpc s development branch

An Overview of CPC’s Development Branch

Arun Kumar

Chief, Development Branch

Climate Prediction Center

current activities
Current Activities
  • Global and Regional Climate Analysis
  • Real-time Global Climate Monitoring
  • Forecast Tool Development/ Improvement
  • Predictions, Verifications, and Expert Assessments
  • Climate Diagnostics and Attribution
  • Applied Research
  • Outreach and Service
  • International Activities
  • Climate Test-Bed

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

global and regional climate analysis
Global and Regional Climate Analysis
  • Maintain and monitor various atmospheric and oceanic real-time climate analyses systems (R1, R2, NARR, GODAS)
  • Disseminates associated datasets to customers and partners
  • Analyses are either model based or objective
  • The analysis efforts are the backbone for real-time global climate monitoring

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

real time global climate monitoring oceans
Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans

SSH

SST

HC

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

real time global climate monitoring oceans1
Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans

ENSO

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

real time global climate monitoring surface
Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface

Droughts

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

real time global climate monitoring surface1
Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface

Surface Temperature

Rainfall

Soil Moisture

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

real time global climate monitoring troposphere
Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere

Variability

Teleconnections

Storm Tracks

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

real time global climate monitoring troposphere1
Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere

MJO

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

real time global climate monitoring stratosphere
Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Stratosphere

SSW

Total Ozone

Ozone

Hole

Trends

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

predictions verifications and integrated assessments
Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments

ENSO Diagnostics Discussion

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

predictions verifications and integrated assessments1
Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments

Climate Forecast System

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

climate diagnostics and attribution
Climate Diagnostics and Attribution

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

applied research
Applied Research
  • Developing improved analyses
    • Enhancing data bases (data archeology)
    • Quality control and analysis procedures
    • Consistency among analyses for different variables
    • New objectively analyzed fields
  • Improving forecast tools
    • Multi-model ensemble techniques
    • Drought
    • Bias correction techniques
    • Forecast consolidation techniques
    • Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; teleconnections;…)

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

applied research1
Applied Research
  • Understanding predictability for various time-scales
    • MJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interaction
    • Sources and estimates of associated predictability (e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…)
    • Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm tracks, etc.
  • Developing new products
    • Monitoring of ENSO heat budget
    • Objective drought outlook

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

summary
Summary
  • Real-time climate analysis and monitoring products generated by the Development Branch are used extensively worldwide
  • Analysis products maintained by the Development Branch, e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide audience and user base
  • Real-time briefings provided by the Development Branch are a reliable source of evolving global climate conditions
  • Applied research efforts in the Development Branch focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, monitoring, and prediction efforts

Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

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