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SCS-002-1 Standardization of Climate Metrics for Greenhouse Gases and Particulates Based on Life-Cycle Impact Assessment by Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D. Scientific Certification Systems. SCS-002 Standards Committee Operating Under ANSI Process. • Armstrong World Industries

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slide1

SCS-002-1 Standardization of Climate Metrics for Greenhouse Gases and ParticulatesBased on Life-Cycle Impact Assessment by Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D.Scientific Certification Systems

slide2

SCS-002 Standards Committee

Operating Under ANSI Process

  • • Armstrong World Industries
  • • Berkeley Analytical Associates, LLC
  • • BIFMA
    • • California Department of General Services
  • • California Integrated Waste Management Board
    • • City of San Francisco
    • • Collaborative for High Performance Schools (CHPS)
  • • Resilient Flooring Association
  • • HNI Corporation
  • • US EPA
  • • Pacific Gas & Electric
  • • Shaw Industries, Inc.
  • • Steel Industry
  • • US Department of Energy
scs 002 lcia framework consistent with iso 14044
SCS-002 LCIA FrameworkConsistent with ISO-14044

Mandatory Phases

Life-Cycle Scoping addresses all environmental and human health issues and sets appropriate boundary conditions.

Life-Cycle Inventory measures system inputs and outputs. It is the initial phase of assessment only, and should not be used for comparative assertions.

Life-Cycle Impact Assessment connects LCI and direct land use to human health and environmental impacts, and is the basis of comparative assertions.

Goal & scope

definition

Inventory

analysis

Impact

assessment

Optional Phase

Life Cycle Interpretation involves subjective weighting and ranking

slide4

Standard Requires the Use of Recognized LCA Models

The reference flow of this unit

operation is the functional unit

of the entire system (name underlined)

scs 002 life cycle impact groups
SCS-002 Life Cycle Impact Groups

Specific Issue Impact Groups

Natural Resource Depletion

Habitats/Key Species Loss

Human Health/Environmental Emission Levels

Human Health Exposure Levels

Climate Change Impact Groups

Global Climate Impacts

Regional Climate Impacts

•  Arctic

•  Antarctic

slide7

Required Impact

Category Indicators

creeping death zones eutrophication kills all sea life
Creeping Death Zones — Eutrophication Kills All Sea Life

The dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico is largely caused by agricultural run-off from the Mississippi River. Increases have been most pronounced since the increase in biofuel production.

mandatory lcia steps
Mandatory LCIA Steps

Classification

Assign life-cycle inventory results — emissions, wastes, resource depletion — to impact categories according to their potential environmental/human health endpoints.

Characterization

Determine the environmental relevance of life-cycle inventory results, based on spatial/temporal differentiation and intensity of midpoints/endpoints, utilizing characterization factors (SCF and ECFs).

Impact Profile

The output of the assessment provides a complete quantified set impact indicators.

calculating indicators classification

Greenhouse gases

Acidification

Ecotoxic chemical (soil/water)

Ground level ozone

Calculating Indicators: Classification

Connecting Inventory Results to Impact Categories

slide12

Required LCIA Modeling: Establishing Stressor-Effects Network

Regional Acidification

Node 3 Indicator: Acidification Loading = Fraction

of wet deposition of acid emissions in areas of exceedance of critical load

climate change stressor effects network
Climate Change Stressor-Effects Network

Description

Increases in global/regional GHG emissions along with continuous aerosol emissions

Intensification of accumulated global / regional GHG loading (CO2, CH4), plus tropospheric ozone & fine carbon particulates loading (soot), minus aerosols

  • Intensification of net global RF and net RF in regional climate zones based on various GHG loadings, minus net cooling from tropospheric aerosols

Increases in GMT, and increases in RMTs associated with climate changes in regional climate zones

Exceedance of threshold (EOT) – based on the GMT threshold and regional climate zone thresholds

Catastrophic global and regional climate changes

Impacts to human health and the environment on a global and regional basis.

Strength of Linkage

Stressor - strong

Endpoint - none

  • Stressor - strong
  • Endpoint –weak
  • Stressor - strong
  • Endpoint - strong
  • Stressor - strong
  • Endpoint - strong
  • Stressor - strong
  • Endpoint – strong
  • Stressor - moderate
  • Endpoint - strong
  • Stressor - moderate
  • Endpoint – strong

Node

Node 1

(stressor)

Node 2

(intensification of midpoints)

Node 3

(intensification of midpoints)

Node 4

(intensification of midpoints)

Node 5

(Exceedance of threshold midpoints)

Node 6

(Post threshold midpoints)

Node 7

(Post threshold multiple endpoints)

global warming potentials gwps established by the ipcc
Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) Established by the IPCC
  • GWPs represents an index of the amortized radiative forcing over time of various greenhouse pollutants compared to an equivalent tonne of CO2.
  • The IPCC has established GWP values for Kyoto-listed GHG pollutants as a function of various selected time horizons: 20, 100 and 500 years.
  • SCS-002-1 has extrapolated the IPCC results to establish GWP values for the annual time horizon and added 20-year time horizon GWPs for soot, tropospheric ozone and aerosols.
key assumption behind climate metrics the selection of the time horizon
Key Assumption Behind Climate Metrics: The Selection of the Time Horizon

CO2 & other minor long-lived GHGs

Fraction Remaining in Atmosphere

0 0.5 1.0

Methane

Soot, TO

1 year 20 years 100 years (Kyoto)

Time Horizon

key impact nodes for stressor effect network modeling

Increases in Greenhouse Gas Loadings are directly linked to increased Radiative Forcing.

The increase in Radiative Forcing is being observed both globally and regionally

… which then is linked to the increase in Global Mean Temperature.

GMT

Tipping

Point

Key Impact Nodes for Stressor-Effect Network Modeling
slide25

Rapid Loss of the Perennial Arctic Ice Sheet 2004-2005

Max. TO concentration strongly correlated to area of rapid loss of Perennial Ice

soot methane tropospheric ozone 80 of the arctic warming
Soot, Methane, Tropospheric Ozone: 80% of the Arctic Warming

Justification for excluding CO2 fromArctic Stressor-Effects Network

slide28
New Major Study Findings (April 2009)Emphasize Role of Soot, Tropospheric Ozoneand Methane in Arctic Warming

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) cautions that factors like soot, ozone and methane may now be contributing to the warming of the Arctic and other parts of the world as much as carbon dioxide.

The amount of black carbon in the atmosphere, due to agricultural burning, forest fires and inefficient diesel engines, creates a haze that absorbs sunlight, warms and eventually deposits onto snow.

The darkening of the frozen surface then causes more sunlight to be absorbed, reducing the snow’s ability to reflect sunlight back into space.

"The principal (climate change) problem is carbon dioxide, but a new understanding is emerging of soot," said Nobel peace prize-winner and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore in commenting on the report.

soot the poor and yellow flames
Soot: The Poor and Yellow Flames

Soot is currently 18% of total global heat (RF).

2 billion more poor are expected in the next 20 years.

node 2 2010 annual ghg loadings
Node 2: 2010 Annual GHG Loadings

700

676

660

600

500

400

Billion Tonnes CO2 eq.

300

200

Livestock 22 billion tons

100

58

34

3.5

N20 C02 CH4 Soot TO

adding legacy emissions of co 2 and methane to annual ghg loadings node 3
Adding Legacy Emissions of CO2 and Methane to Annual GHG Loadings (Node 3)

34

1400

58

1200

Billion Tonnes CO2 eq.

676

660

3.5

214

N20 C02 CH4 Soot TO

slide38

Accumulated CO2 Loading isLeveling Off Over the Next 20 Years

Accumulated greenhouse gases (A-GHG) over next 20 years

Assumes 34 billion tonnes in 2010, increasing 3% per year

Billion Tonnes CO2

secondary impacts from co 2 oceanic acidification is destroying the world s remaining coral reefs
Secondary Impacts from CO2: Oceanic Acidification is Destroying the World’s Remaining Coral Reefs
2030 shorter lived ghg pollutants will constitute more than 75 of total warming loading
2030:Shorter-Lived GHG Pollutants Will ConstituteMore Than 75% of Total Warming Loading

1600

34

1400

1200

Billion Tonnes CO2 eq.

800

3.5

214

N20 C02 CH4 Soot TO

BAU Projections, Uncertainty not determined

applying lcia ghg metrics to assessment of new power system deployment

Applying LCIA GHG Metrics to Assessment of New Power System Deployment

• Example 1. Insertion of 556 MW IGCC Unit with Carbon Dioxide Capture Sequestration (CCS) into the SERC Regional Grid

• Example 2. Insertion of 2300 MW Nuclear Unit into SERC Regional Grid

lcia m odeling igcc ccs unit
LCIA Modeling: IGCC-CCS Unit
  • Fuel Source: Illinois # 6 Coal
  • Capacity: 556-MWe net
  • Total Sequestered CO2: 453,200 tonnes

Grid Electricity

Diesel Oil Prod (Cum.)

Coal mining and cleaning

Rail Transport of Coal

CO2 Transport Pipeline Location

Coal Mining and Cleaning Site

Power Plant Site

No Code

CO2 Pipeline

160 km

IGCC Power Plant with CO2 Capture

CO2 storage

Electricity Distribution to End User

methane loadings from regional mines up to 86 of total ghg loading of igcc unit
Methane Loadings from Regional Mines:Up to 86% of Total GHG Loading of IGCC Unit

Current Cap and Trade GHG metrics do not account for this mining-related methane loading.

old coal plants hidden trade offs from aerosol emissions unwanted winter fall spring cooling
Old Coal PlantsHidden Trade-offs from Aerosol Emissions: Unwanted Winter/Fall/Spring Cooling

Total Avoided Emissions - tons

Unwanted Fall Cooling

Unwanted Winter/Spring Cooling

Useful Summer Cooling

comparing current cap trade metrics to lcia ghg metrics
Comparing Current Cap & Trade Metrics to LCIA GHG Metrics

Elimination of winter aerosols alone would provide greater unrealized benefits for the SERC than the CO2 reductions recognized under proposed Cap and Trade metrics.

the case for transitioning from current ghg metrics to lcia ghg metrics for cap trade programs
The Case for Transitioning from Current GHG Metrics to LCIA GHG Metrics for Cap & Trade Programs
  • Current metrics rely upon the 100-year time horizon.
  • Current GHG metrics overlook 95% of annual mitigation potential opportunities.
  • Cap & trade funds based on current GHG metrics will provide only marginal mitigation of CO2 while failing to seize on opportunities to mitigate other key GHGs and GHPs.
july 14 workshop objectives
July 14 Workshop —Objectives
  • Inform major stakeholders about new GHG metrics.
  • Validate and refine the current SCS-002-1draft standard for comment.
  • Prepare to help shape the U.S. position for Copenhagen summit in December 2009.
  • Provide basis for adjustments to the current proposed U.S. Cap & Trade legislation.

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