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Eliminando as Barreiras para o Desenvolvimento Inclusivo. Namaacha 22 Março 2010. Moçambique A country of great potential. A rich natural endowment Large regional market more than 100 million people with average income 5 times greater

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slide1
Eliminando as Barreiras

para o DesenvolvimentoInclusivo

Namaacha

22 Março

2010

slide2
Moçambique

A country of great potential

  • A rich natural endowment
  • Large regional market
    • more than 100 million people with average income 5 times greater
    • regional market & infrastructure integration underway
  • Electricity exports & expansion
  • Gas exports & offshore gas/oil
  • Large FDI – over$500m since 2008
  • Large Official Development Aid
    • projected at $1.9 billion
    • roughly $86 per head
  • Easy access to global markets
  • And more ……
slide3
Moçambique

A country of great potential

  • 7th fastest growing economy during last 15 years
  • Committed to faster structural transformation
    • Embarked on business-friendly regulatory reforms, albeit at a slow pace
    • Investment in human capital
  • Strong desire to realize the potential for:
    • Natural resources development
    • Commercial agriculture
    • Regional transport logistics services
    • Electricity for exports
    • Special Economic/Industrial Zones
    • Eco and coastal tourism
  • Consistent focus on macro stability
slide4
Unexplored potential
  • But Mozambique is growing from a low base
    • PIB per capita de Moçambique, cifrado em US$ 855 em 2008em termos de paridade de poder de compra
    • apenas 1,8 por cento do dos Estados Unidos e 8,2 por cento da média mundial
  • Poverty reduction at a slow pace
  • Narrow export basket; Focus on megaprojects
  • Growing labor force, but low job creation
  • Low utilization of production factors
    • Vast areas of fertile arable land have not been exploited with only 4.5 million out of 36 million hectares currently being cultivated
    • labor that is shed by agriculture is not being effectively absorbed by high value-added industries
    • even after privatization and deregulation, the rail and port infrastructures operate below capacity
slide5
Challenges are significant

High level of poverty by international measure

Relatively unimpressive poverty reduction

  • Exports are highly concentrated
  • Aluminum exports > all other commodity exports combined
  • Only 14 products with exports of over US$1 million
slide6

Economic geography of SADC

  • Where is the market for Mozambique?
    • Maputo is situated within 500 km of two major South African markets
    • Mozambique served its landlocked neighbors (Malawi, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe)
    • … which can be reconnected by upgrading existing transport infrastructure
slide7

Physical access to markets

  • Maputo Development Corridor builds on existing logistics infrastructure
    • including roads, railroads, gas pipeline, transmission line, and a modern port
    • … and timebound regional integration program
slide8
Moçambique

Um pais de altapotencialidade

  • Mozambique:Regional Trade Flows 2007
  • South Africa is the main user of Maputo Corridor
    • imports from South Africa were 2.4 times greater than exports to South Africa
    • over 50% of Mozambican exports to South Africa is electricity
    • chronic bilateral trade deficit with South Africa
  • Bilateral net importers are Malawi and Zimbabwe
  • Swaziland, Tanzania, and Zambia are net exporters to Mozambique
slide9
The satellite imagery shows the land pressure being felt by farmers on the South African side of the border compared to a virtual non-existence of farms or industrial activity along the 90 Km highway from Ressano-Garcia to Matola.
slide10
A comparable corridor from Uganda to Kenya shows a high concentration of Ugandan businesses forming clusters along the corridor…..

…… and more recently, near the border to supply the Kenyan market.

  • Proliferation of businesses near border
slide11

Registered Land Rights

  • Abundant land ….
  • ….. but sparse use
  • Roughly 5% of land use rights is registered
    • community land demarcation
    • land use rights (DUAT)
  • Less than ½ of land fully used, 30% not used
  • Land tax: 0.08, 0.6, 8 US$/yr.ha respectively for livestock, rainfed agriculture, and tourism.
slide13

Trade grew exponentially since 2000

    • export growth fueled by mega-projects
    • import growth by both consumption goods and mega-projects
  • MOZAL exports exceeded all other exports combined since 2004
  • MOZAL exports were nearly 3 times as big as its imports
    • net gain for on the BOP is much smaller after netting out debt service, support service fees, and yes, DIVIDENDS to foreign shareholders
    • from export earnings perspective, MOZAL is largely a phantom operation
slide14

These are clearly high return investments

    • net gain to non-residents are high, so FDI will continue to increase
    • net gain to residents are modest, both in income and employment creation
  • Bias toward nontradables through exchange rate appreciation
    • depresses traditional exports
  • Exemptions and simplified procedures favor megaprojects
    • the rest of the businesses suffer from regulatory overload
slide16

Pre-IndependenceMapofMozambique

Only 14 percentofthepopulationlivein central areas, the savana, forest, andgrasslandofthecountry.

Pocketsofpopulationcenterscreatedbyhistory. Today, 35 percentofpeoplelivewithin 75 kmsofaninternaltionalborder. Theimmediateproximity to theborder (25km) islesspopulated (9% ofpeople).

  • OverhalfofMozambicans (52%) livewithin 75 kmsofthecoastline. And 33% livewithin 25 kmsofthecoastline.
slide17
Mozambiquehas a verylowroaddensity. Compare: Vietnam’s 69 km andIndia’s 112 km
  • ButSouthAfricahas 29 km, Zambia 9 km, Zimbabwe 25 km (per 100 km2 oflandarea) accessible to Mozambicantraffic
  • Transportdevelopmentstrategyneeds to considerwhether to link populationcenters, natural resourcepockets, neighboringcountries, ortheagriculturalbelts. Thechoiceisnoteasyandtradeoffsmayhaveimplications for generations.
slide18
In 2004, Mozambiquespent US$51 perchildinprimaryschool, or 10th lowestlevelamong 81 countriesinthesample.
  • butprimaryschoolcompletion rate was 29.5 %.
  • normalized to 100 % completion rate, Mozambiquewouldhavespent US$172 perchildgraduate.

Notonlythemoneyusedislowinabsoluteterms, butalsoeducationsystemisnotefficient.

Compared to othercountries, Mozambiquemakesrelatively more effort (beingrightsideofthetrendlines)

slide19
TheScourgeof HIV/AIDS….

…. Nothing more needs to besaid

slide20

NotsoeasydoingbusinessinMozambique

Country ranking movedup 5 placescompared to 2009 report.

  • Bigjumpof 45 places for Starting a Business
  • Marginal improvementsinRegisteringpropertyandTradingacrossborders
slide21

Removendo obstáculo para desenvolvimento inclusivo em Moçambique

Termos de benefícios fiscais e impacto multiplicador podem ser analisado concretamente antes das negociações.

Ligações com a industria nacional podem ser facilitadas. Necessidade de criar empregos em dimensão mais ampla.

Megaprojetos

Industria nacional

Sector Agrícola

Com aumento da produtividade e educação das crianças, pode proporcionar mão de obra ao sector industrial.

Especialização e aglomeração

Mais especializada

Mais especializada

Movimento intersectorial de mão de obra

Mais especializada

Especialização da Agricultura

Especialização da Agricultura

Especialização da Agricultura

Urbanização da população

Serviços

slide22
Money is a partoftheproblem, butonly a part.

Some Observations:

  • Idlefactorsofproductionneed to beput to use. Theyneed to beable to move to wherethey are needed. Orattractthosebusinesseswhichneedthem.
  • Broadeningofgrowthrequiresremovingbiasestowardmegaprojectsandlargebusinesses.
  • Infrastructureplanningneed to takeintoaccountwherepeopleandresources are located. Butthereis a series oftradeoffs.
  • Bureaucracyandregulationoverloadisincompatiblewithbroadbasedhighgrowth. Theyneed to besystematicallyremoved as soon as possible.
  • As businessenvironmentimproves, itbecomes more lucrative to borrow to invest. Returns to investmenthas to behigherthancompetingcountries. Money followssuccess.
slide23
We do nothave a map for Mozambiquelikethisone for China. It shows theevolutionofspecializationandagglomerationinzonesspreadoutindifferentpartsof China. Whatwouldbethevision for Mozambique? What are thegeographic, demographic, commercialandlogisticfactorswhichwillinfluencethisvision? Observationsputforwardinthispresentation are simplifications. However, no onedoubtsthatMozambiquehas a greatpotential to growandprosper.