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Enhancements in LAPS Workshop: Revolutionizing Weather Forecasting Techniques

Join us for the LAPS Workshop from October 25-27, 2010, to explore the latest advancements in Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) technology. This workshop will delve into new methodologies for improving short-range weather forecasts through the integration of satellite data, radar inputs, and conventional observations. Highlights include a discussion on cloud analysis, modeling techniques, and innovative web products designed for real-time forecasting. Engage with experts and access valuable resources and tools that will enhance your forecasting capabilities.

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Enhancements in LAPS Workshop: Revolutionizing Weather Forecasting Techniques

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  1. Software Development • LAPS Workshop Oct 25-27, 2010 • More info (including Forum) at: http://laps.noaa.gov OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

  2. 2.1 3.1 3.2 2.2 3.3 2.3 3.4 OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 4.0 5.0

  3. NOWRAD netCDF (Low-level Reflectivity) Level-II Broadcast Data (IRADS Network) Level-III AWIPS LAPS script (LapsRadar.pl) calls WFO program (tfrNarrowband2netCDF) GSD Central Facility Processing vrc_driver.x LAPS Radar Ingest Polar netCDF File (GSD “NIMBUS” Format) Remap_polar_netcdf.exe 2-D LAPS Grid Reflectivity (VRC) 3-D LAPS Grid Ref + Vel (VXX) Mosaic_radar.x (multiple radar input) 2-D LAPS Grid Reflectivity (VRC) 3-D LAPS Grid Reflectivity (VRZ)

  4. Cloud Analysis (cloud.exe) Flow Chart Cloud Fraction 3-D Isosurface

  5. Microphysics, Vertical Motion and Hot-Start (deriv.exe + accum.exe) LAPS hot-start scheme Dramatically improves Very short-range forecast, Importance to terminal Scale forecasts The hot-start scheme will be adapted into STMAS, a multi-grid variational data assimilation system with satellite, radar, conventional obs and model dynamic constraint applied simultaneously.

  6. Analyzed Cloud Liquid vs WISP Aircraft measurements Envelope Indicates Good POD Scatter (FAR) due to unresolved small-scale LWC variability, otherwise good analysis of icing potential OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 6

  7. Balance Package Hatted quantities: solution increment Primed quantities: pre-balanced increment OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 7

  8. Future Cloud Analysis Development • Higher Resolution Time/Space • Develop forward models for all data sources being used to more fully implement a variational approach • Incorporate methodologies into STMAS & GSI • Consider new data sources (e.g. airborne radar) • Improve rain gauge / radar / model first guess blending for QPE OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 8

  9. Web Products • NCL/NCAR graphics based • Pre-Generated NCAR graphics • “Sched.pl –f” runs followup_ncarg.sh to generate GIF images • “On-the-fly” page • “nph-laps.cgi” script (etc/www) directory • Can be run on a web server • Publication quality imagery • Horizontal, vertical cross sections, soundings • Verify/overlay model forecasts with analyses and observations • Difference plots (e.g. analysis vs. first guess) • Animations (animated GIF / Java) • Montages (e.g. ensemble display through time) OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

  10. “On-The-Fly” Page OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

  11. “On-the-fly” Page Montage • “On-The-Fly” Page OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

  12. LAPS / STMAS Forum Discussion Forum OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

  13. Analysis software plans • Portability • Intel/ifort • GFORTRAN • Mac (Linux) • Parallelization • MPI works with Traditional LAPS wind analysis • STMAS minimization routine is next • GPU technology • Optimize & Vectorize serial code • Sub-Kilometer resolution • Hi-res Terrain / Land Use (incorporated in balancing constraints) OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

  14. Thanks! • More info at: http://laps.noaa.gov • Questions / Comments? OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

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