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Auto Accidents: What’s responsible?. Math 70: Group Project Group 8 Janelle Chang Helena Jeanty Rhiana Quail. DISCLAIMER!!!. Weather conditions Drivers’ mental health Drivers’ physical health Time of day Time of year. Sorting the Data. National vs. Regional National:

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auto accidents what s responsible

Auto Accidents: What’s responsible?

Math 70: Group Project

Group 8

Janelle Chang

Helena Jeanty

Rhiana Quail

disclaimer
DISCLAIMER!!!
  • Weather conditions
  • Drivers’ mental health
  • Drivers’ physical health
  • Time of day
  • Time of year
sorting the data
Sorting the Data...
  • National vs. Regional
    • National:
      • all 50 states (not including DC)
    • Regional:
      • Region 1 ~ North East
      • Region 2 ~ South East
      • Region 3 ~ South MidWest
      • Region 4 ~ North MidWest
      • Region 5 ~ South West
      • Region 6 ~ North West
  • Reasoning…
    • Allows one to view any type of national behavior
    • Allows for comparisons to be made within the United States
normalizing data
Normalizing Data
  • Reason:
    • Every entry needs to be expressed in a “standard” proportion so that the data can be evaluated equally.
      • State populations differs
      • Number of states per region differ
    • Basic assumption: more people = more cars = higher number of automobile fatalities.
testing 1 does alcohol affect the number of drivers killed in car accidents
Testing#1: Does alcohol affect the number of drivers killed in car accidents?
  • assumption
    • Alcohol affects the number of people killed in car accidents BUT is not the only contributing factor.
    • Younger people probably drink more irresponsibly so more likely to be involved and be responsible for fatal car accidents.

#2: Does a combination of age and alcohol affect the number of people (including drivers) killed in car accidents?#3: Do individual regions mimic national data?

t test
t-Test

For each region:

  • H0: tot. drivers killed = drunk drivers killed
  • H1: tot. drivers killed  drunk drivers killed
  • t-Test:
      •  = 0.05, 95% confidence
      • 2-sided test
      • df = (# obs) - 1
t test 1 rejecting h 0
t-Test (#1)Rejecting H0

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 17

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 15) = 40.43

Model | 1.1071e-12 1 1.1071e-12 Prob > F = 0.0000

Residual | 4.1075e-13 15 2.7383e-14 R-squared = 0.7294

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.7114

Total | 1.5179e-12 16 9.4868e-14 Root MSE = 1.7e-07

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

reg1normki~d | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

------------- +----------------------------------------------------------------

reg1normdr~k | 125.8276 19.78864 6.36 0.000 83.64916 168.0061

_cons | 1.37e-07 4.70e-08 2.91 0.011 3.66e-08 2.37e-07

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reject H0: | t| > t15

ie. 6.36 > 2.131

t test accepting h 0
t-TestAccepting H0

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 4

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 2) = 10.11

Model | 6.5849e-14 1 6.5849e-14 Prob > F = 0.0863

Residual | 1.3030e-14 2 6.5150e-15 R-squared = 0.8348

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.7522

Total | 7.8879e-14 3 2.6293e-14 Root MSE = 8.1e-08

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

reg5normki~d | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

reg5normdr~k | 90.53328 28.47673 3.18 0.086 -31.99218 213.0587

_cons | 1.85e-07 5.11e-08 3.62 0.069 -3.50e-08 4.05e-07

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Accept H0: | t| < t2

ie. -4.303 < 3.18 < 4.303

testing 1 does alcohol affect the number of drivers killed in car accidents1
Testing#1: Does alcohol affect the number of drivers killed in car accidents?
  • assumption
    • Alcohol affects the number of people killed in car accidents BUT is not the only contributing factor.
    • Younger people probably drink more irresponsibly so more likely to be involved and be responsible for fatal car accidents.

#2: Does a combination of age and alcohol affect the number of people (including drivers) killed in car accidents?#3: Do individual regions mimic national data?

f test
F-Test

For each region:

  • H0: 1 = 2 = 0
  • H1: 1  2 (at least one  i  0)
  • F-Test:
      •  = 0.05, 95% confidence
      • 1-sided test
f test 2 rejecting h 0
F-Test (#2)Rejecting H0

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 11

-------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 8) = 8.22

Model | 7.0241e-13 2 3.5121e-13 Prob > F = 0.0115

Residual | 3.4191e-13 8 4.2739e-14 R-squared = 0.6726

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.5908T

Total | 1.0443e-12 10 1.0443e-13 Root MSE = 2.1e-07

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

reg1normki~d | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

------------- -----+----------------------------------------------------------------

reg1normdr~k | 102.7064 39.55021 2.60 0.032 11.50342 193.9093

personskil~d | -.0043674 .0144079 -0.30 0.770 -.037592 .0288572

_cons | 2.69e-07 2.30e-07 1.17 0.275 -2.61e-07 7.99e-07

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reject H0: F0.025, 2, 8 > 4.46

ie. 8.22 > 4.46

peoplekilled = 2.69e-07 + 102.7064 * drunkdrivers

- .0043674 * agekilled

f test accepting h 0
F-Test Accepting H0

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 8

-------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 5) = 3.64

Model | 3.2398e-14 2 1.6199e-14 Prob > F = 0.1059

Residual | 2.2270e-14 5 4.4540e-15 R-squared = 0.5926

-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.4297

Total | 5.4668e-14 7 7.8097e-15 Root MSE = 6.7e-08

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

reg3normki~d | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

reg3normdr~k | 394.0596 146.2681 2.69 0.043 18.06551 770.0537

agekilled | -.0011894 .0022405 -0.53 0.618 -.0069489 .0045701

_cons | 1.38e-07 4.85e-08 2.85 0.036 1.36e-08 2.63e-07

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Accept H0: F0.025, 2, 5 < 5.79

ie. 2.69 < 5.79

driverskilled = 1.38e-07 + 394.0596 * drunkdrivers -.0011894 * agekilled

testing 1 does alcohol affect the number of drivers killed in car accidents2
Testing#1: Does alcohol affect the number of drivers killed in car accidents?
  • assumption
    • Alcohol affects the number of people killed in car accidents BUT is not the only contributing factor.
    • Younger people probably drink more irresponsibly so more likely to be involved and be responsible for fatal car accidents.

#2: Does a combination of age and alcohol affect the number of people (including drivers) killed in car accidents?#3: Do individual regions mimic national data?

confidence intervals 3
Confidence Intervals (#3)

Confidence Interval of the mean for the National Data

National Mean of drivers killed: 2.96763E-07

Confidence Interval

(2.12099E-07, 3.81428E-07)

(2.96763E-07 - 8.46641E-08 , 2.96763E-07 + 8.46641E-08)

region results with confidence intervals
Region Results with Confidence Intervals

Lies within National CI

Region

Mean

anova test
ANOVA Test
  • H0: national = reg 1 = reg 2 = .….. = reg 6
      • The number of divers killed in car accidents is independent of the region in which they occur.
  • Reject H0 if F > F0.95, 3, 2 = 19.2
  • F = 7.7631 < 19.2 so accept H0
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Nationally, 4 out of the 6 regions rejected the F-test null hypothesis => there is a correlation between age, BAC, and the number of drivers killed.
  • Regionally, 4 out 6 supported the national data trend. The regressions carried out confirm that the number of people killed depends on the number of drunk drivers.
  • Regions do not reflect the national trend for the average number of drivers killed.
  • The number of drivers killed does not depend on the region in which they occur.
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