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Climate Control and Ozone Depletion. Chapter 19. An Enormous Cloud of Air Pollutants and Ash from Iceland volcano (April 2010). This dust cloud closed Airports in Europe for almost one week. Coal Power Plant emitting green house gas.

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Climate Control and Ozone Depletion

Chapter 19


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An Enormous Cloud of Air Pollutants and Ash from Iceland volcano (April 2010)

This dust cloud closed

Airports in Europe for

almost one week.



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19-1 How Might the Earth’s Temperature and Climate Change in the Future?

  • Concept 19-1 The overwhelming scientific consensus is that the earth’s atmosphere is warming rapidly, mostly because of human activities, and that this will lead to significant climate change during this century.


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How Do We Know What Temperatures Were in the Past? in the Future?

  • Scientists analyze tiny air bubbles trapped in ice cores learn about past:

    • troposphere composition.

    • temperature trends.

    • greenhouse gas concentrations.

    • solar,snowfall, and forest fire activity.



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Carbon Dioxide at highest levels Atmosphere

  • In 2005, an ice core showed that CO2 levels in the troposphere are the highest they have been in 650,000 years.


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The Natural Greenhouse Effect Atmosphere

  • Four major factors shape the earth’s climate:

    • The sun.

    • Greenhouse effect that warms the earth’s lower troposphere and surface because of the presence of greenhouse gases.

    • Oceans store CO2 and heat, evaporate and receive water, move stored heat to other parts of the world.

    • Natural cooling process through water vapor in the troposphere (heat rises).


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Atmospheric Levels of CO Atmosphere2 and CH4, Global Temperatures, and Sea Levels

Fig 19-4


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Keeling Curve Atmosphere





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The Atmosphere Is Warming Mostly Because of Human Activities Atmosphere

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    • 90–99% likely that lower atmosphere is warming

    • 1906–2005: Ave. temp increased about 0.74˚C

    • 1970–2005: Annual greenhouse emissions up 70%

    • Past 50 years: Arctic temp rising almost twice as fast as the rest of the earth

    • Melting of glaciers and floating sea ice

    • Prolonged droughts: increasing

    • Last 100 years: sea levels rose 10–20 cm

    • Warmer temperatures in Alaska, Russia, and the Arctic are melting permafrost releasing more CO2 and CH4 into the troposphere.


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Melting of Alaska’s Muir Glacier Atmospherebetween 1948 and 2004



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The Scientific Consensus about Future Climate Change Atmosphere

  • There is strong evidence that human activities will play an important role in changing the earth’s climate during this century.

    • Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) couple, or combine, the effects of the atmosphere and the oceans on climate.


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Sun Atmosphere

Troposphere

Cooling from increase

Greenhouse gases

CO2 removal

by plants and soil organisms

CO2 emissions from land clearing, fires, and decay

Aerosols

Heat and CO2 removal

Warming from decrease

Heat and CO2 emissions

Ice and snow cover

Shallow ocean

Land and soil biota

Long-term storage

Natural and human emissions

Deep ocean

Fig. 19-A, p. 502


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CGC Models sources Atmosphere

NASA




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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Projected ChangesFourth Assessment Report 2007

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is

now evident from observations of increases in global

average air and ocean temperatures, widespread

Melting of snow and ice and rising global average

sea level

(Figure SPM.1). {1.1}

Most of the observed increase in global average

Temperatures since the mid-20th century is very

likely (p = .90) due to the observed increase in

anthropogenic GHG concentrations.

(Figure SPM.4). {2.4}

Click for IPCC web page


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IPCC Treatment of Uncertainty Projected Changes

Where uncertainty is assessed more quantitatively using

expert judgment of the correctness of underlying data,

models or analyses, then the following scale of confidence

levels is used to express the assessed chance of a finding

being correct: very high confidence at least 9 out of 10;

high confidence about 8 out of 10; medium confidence

about 5 out of 10.

Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using

expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence

(e.g. observations or model results), then the following

likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability

of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%;

very likely >90%; likely >66%;.



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IPCC Temperature projections Projected Changes


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Is a Hotter Sun the Culprit? Projected Changes

  • Since 1975

    • Troposphere has warmed

    • Stratosphere has cooled

  • This is not what a hotter sun would do


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Changing Ocean Currents Projected Changes

  • Global warming could alter ocean currents and cause both excessive warming and severe cooling.


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Ocean Acidification Projected Changes

Click for NRDC Acid Test

Click for Ocean Acidification Network


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FACTORS AFFECTING THE EARTH’S TEMPERATURE Projected Changes

  • Some factors can amplify (positive feedback) and some can dampen (negative feedback) projected global warming.

  • There is uncertainty about how much CO2 and heat the oceans can remove from the troposphere and how long the heat and CO2 might remain there.


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There Is Uncertainty about the Effects of Cloud Cover on Global Warming

  • Warmer temperatures create more clouds

    • Thick, light-colored low altitude clouds: decrease surface temperature

    • Thin, cirrus clouds at high altitudes: increase surface temperature


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Outdoor Air Pollution Can Temporarily Slow Global Warming Global Warming

  • Aerosol and soot pollutants

    • Will not enhance or counteract projected global warming

    • Fall back to the earth or are washed out of the lower atmosphere

    • Reduction: especially in developed countries


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DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING Global Warming

  • Climate change is such a difficult problem to deal with because:

    • The problem is global.

    • The effects will last a long time.

    • The problem is a long-term political issue.

    • The harmful and beneficial impacts of climate change are not spread evenly.

    • Many actions that might reduce the threat are controversial because they can impact economies and lifestyles.


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19-2 What Are Some Possible Effects of a Warmer Atmosphere? Global Warming

  • Concept 19-2 The projected rapid change in the atmosphere's temperature during this century is very likely to increase drought and flooding, shift areas where food can be grown, raise sea levels, result in intense heat waves, and cause the premature extinction of many species.



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IPCC Impacts Global Warming

Very likely = 90% probable


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Enhanced Global Warming Could Have Severe Consequences Global Warming

  • Tipping point and irreversible climate change

  • Worst-case scenarios

    • Ecosystems collapsing

    • Low-lying cities flooded

    • Wildfires in forests

    • Prolonged droughts: grasslands become dust bowls

    • More destructive storms

    • Glaciers shrinking; rivers drying up


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Projected Effects of Global Warming and the Resulting Changes in Global Climate

Fig 19-7


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Severe Drought Is Increasing: Changes in Global ClimateThe Browning of the Earth

  • Accelerate global warming, lead to more drought

  • Biodiversity will decrease

  • Net Primary Productivity (NPP) will decrease

  • Dry climate ecosystems will increase


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Ice and Snow Are Melting Changes in Global Climate

  • Europe’s Alps

    • Glaciers are disappearing

  • South America

    • Glaciers are disappearing

  • Greenland

    • Warmer temperatures



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Sea Levels Are Rising 1982–2007 Increased

  • Projected irreversible effect

    • Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs

    • Disruption of coastal fisheries

    • Flooding of

      • Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areas

      • Agricultural lowlands and deltas

    • Contamination of freshwater aquifers

    • Submergence of low-lying islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Caribbean



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Low-Lying Island Nation: Maldives in by One Meterthe Indian Ocean


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Permafrost Is Likely to Melt: Another Dangerous Scenario by One Meter

  • Carbon present as CH4 in permafrost soils and lake bottoms

  • 2004: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    • 10–20% of the permafrost might melt this century

  • Effect on global warming – ice reflects heat, land absorbs heat.



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Global Warming Is a Major Threat to Biodiversity from 2004 to 2100

  • Most susceptible ecosystems

    • Coral reefs

    • Polar seas

    • Coastal wetland

    • High-elevation mountaintops

    • Alpine and arctic tundra


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Effects on Biodiversity: Winners and Losers from 2004 to 2100

  • Possible effects of global warming on the geographic range of beech trees based on ecological evidence and computer models.




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Climate Change Will Shift Areas Where Crops Can Be Grown Columbia, Canada

  • Regions of farming may shift

    • Decrease in tropical and subtropical areas

    • Increase in northern latitudes

      • Less productivity; soil not as fertile

  • Genetically engineered crops more tolerant to drought


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Climate Change Will Threaten the Health of Many People Columbia, Canada

  • Deaths from heat waves will increase

  • Deaths from cold weather will decrease

  • Higher temperatures can cause

    • Increased flooding

    • Increase in some forms of air pollution, more O3

    • More insects, microbes, toxic molds, and fungi


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19-3 What Can We Do to Slow Climate Change? (1) Columbia, Canada

  • Concept 19-3A To slow the rate of global warming and climate change, we can increase energy efficiency, sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rely more on renewable energy resources, and slow population growth.


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DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING Columbia, Canada

  • Climate change is such a difficult problem to deal with because:

    • The problem is global.

    • The effects will last a long time.

    • The problem is a long-term political issue.

    • The harmful and beneficial impacts of climate change are not spread evenly.

    • Many actions that might reduce the threat are controversial because they can impact economies and lifestyles.


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19-3 What Can We Do to Slow Climate Change? (2) Columbia, Canada

  • Concept 19-3B Governments can subsidize energy efficiency and renewable energy use, tax greenhouse gas emissions, set up cap-and-trade emission reduction systems, and help to slow population growth.


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DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING Columbia, Canada

  • Two ways to deal with global warming:

    • Mitigation that reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

    • Adaptation, where we recognize that some warming is unavoidable and devise strategies to reduce its harmful effects.


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DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING Columbia, Canada

  • Governments can tax greenhouse gas emissions and energy use, increase subsidies and tax breaks for saving energy, and decrease subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels.

  • A cash program to slow and adapt to global warming now is very likely to cost less than waiting and having to deal with its harmful effects later.


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Avoiding Catastrophe: We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change

  • Input or prevention strategies

  • Improve energy efficiency to reduce fossil fuel use

  • Stop cutting down tropical forests

  • Output strategy

    • Capture and store CO2



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SOLUTIONS Change

Global Warming

Cleanup

Prevention

Cut fossil fuel use (especially coal)

Remove CO2 from smokestack and vehicle emissions

Shift from coal to natural gas

Store (sequester) CO2 by planting trees

Improve energy efficiency

Sequester CO2 deep underground (with no leaks allowed)

Shift to renewable energy resources

Transfer energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to developing countries

Sequester CO2 in soil by using no-till cultivation and taking cropland out of production

Reduce deforestation

Sequester CO2 in the deep ocean (with no leaks allowed)

Use more sustainable agriculture and forestry

Repair leaky natural gas pipelines and facilities

Limit urban sprawl

Use animal feeds that reduce CH4 emissions from cows (belching)

Reduce poverty

Slow population growth

Fig. 19-13, p. 515


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International Climate Negotiations: The Kyoto Protocol Change

  • Treaty on global warming which first phase went into effect January, 2005 with 189 countries participating.

  • It requires 38 participating developed countries to cut their emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O to 5.2% below their 1990 levels by 2012.

  • Developing countries were excluded.

    • The U.S. did not sign, but California and Maine are participating.

    • U.S. did not sign because developing countries such as China, India and Brazil were excluded.


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Fifteen Ways to Cut CO Change2 Emissions


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Stepped Art Change

Fig. 19-14, p. 515


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Some Output Methods for Removing CO Change2 from the Atmosphere and Storing It

Fig19-15


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Case Study: Is Capturing and Storing CO Change2 the Answer?

  • Problems with carbon capture and storage cont…

    • Promotes the continued use of coal (world’s dirtiest fuel)

    • Effect of government subsidies and tax breaks

    • Stored CO2 would have to remain sealed forever: no leaking. This is book’s opinion. Flint does not agree


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Some Governments Are Leading the Way Change

  • Costa Rica: goal to be carbon neutral by 2030

  • Norway: aims to be carbon neutral by 2050

  • China and India must change energy habits

  • U.S. cities and states taking initiatives to reduce carbon emissions


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What Can You Do? Reducing CO Change2 Emissions

Fig 19-16


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We Can Prepare for the Harmful Effects of Climate Change? Change

  • Genetically engineer crops more tolerant to drought

  • Stockpile 1–5 years of key foods

  • Waste less water

  • Connect wildlife reserves with corridors



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19-4 How Have We Depleted O of Climate Change3 in the Stratosphere and What Can We Do?

  • Concept 19-4A Widespread use of certain chemicals has reduced ozone levels in the stratosphere, which allows for more harmful ultraviolet radiation to reach the earth’s surface.

  • Concept 19-4B To reverse ozone depletion, we must stop producing ozone-depleting chemicals and adhere to the international treaties that ban such chemicals.


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300 of Climate Change

290

280

Mean Total Ozone Level (Dobson units)

270

260

1980

1990

2000

2010

1970

Year

Fig. 19-18, p. 523



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Science Focus: Rowland and Moline—A Scientific Story of Courage and Persistence

  • Research

    • CFCs are persistent in the atmosphere

    • Rise into the stratosphere over 11-20 years

    • Break down under high-energy UV radiation

      • Halogens produced accelerate the breakdown of O3 to O2

    • Each CFC molecule can last 65-385 years

  • 1988: Dupont stopped producing CFCs





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This shorter-wavelength (high-energy) form of UV radiation causes sunburn, premature aging, and wrinkling. It is largely responsible for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and plays a role in malignant melanoma.

This long-wavelength (low-energy) form of UV radiation causes aging of the skin, tanning, and sometimes sunburn. It penetrates deeply and may contribute to skin cancer.

Ultraviolet B

Ultraviolet A

Hair

Thin layer of dead cells

Squamous cells

Epidermis

Basal layer

Sweat gland

Melanocyte cells

Dermis

Blood vessels

Basal cell

Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Basal Cell Carcinoma

Melanoma

Stepped Art

Fig. 19-E, p. 526


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Natural Capital Degradation causes sunburn, premature aging, and wrinkling. It is largely responsible for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and plays a role in malignant melanoma.

Effects of Ozone Depletion

Human Health

• Worse sunburn

• More eye cataracts

• More skin cancers

• Immune system suppression

Food and Forests

• Reduced yields for some crops

• Reduced seafood supplies from reduced phytoplankton

• Decreased forest productivity for UV-sensitive tree species

Wildlife

• Increased eye cataracts in some species

• Decreased population of aquatic species sensitive to UV radiation

• Reduced population of surface phytoplankton

• Disrupted aquatic food webs from reduced phytoplankton

Air Pollution and Materials

• Increased acid deposition

Fig 19-20

• Increased photochemical smog

• Degradation of outdoor paints and plastics

Global Warming

• Accelerated warming because of decreased ocean uptake of CO2 from atmosphere by phytoplankton and CFCs acting as greenhouse gases


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What Can You Do? Reducing Exposure to UV Radiation causes sunburn, premature aging, and wrinkling. It is largely responsible for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and plays a role in malignant melanoma.

Fig 19-f


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We Can Reverse Stratospheric causes sunburn, premature aging, and wrinkling. It is largely responsible for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and plays a role in malignant melanoma.Ozone Depletion

  • Stop producing all ozone-depleting chemicals

  • 60–100 years of recovery of the O3 layer

  • 1987: Montreal Protocol

  • 1992: Copenhagen Protocol

  • Ozone protocols: prevention is the key


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Animation: How CFCs destroy ozone causes sunburn, premature aging, and wrinkling. It is largely responsible for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and plays a role in malignant melanoma.


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