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TRB Policy Study- State of Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting

TRB Policy Study- State of Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting. Presented To AMPO Travel Model Working Group By Jon Williams . March 20, 2006. Agenda. Study Process Study sponsors Scope of work Committee and its operations Consultant work- BMI / SG Web-based survey

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TRB Policy Study- State of Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting

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  1. TRB Policy Study-State of Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting Presented To AMPO Travel Model Working Group By Jon Williams March 20, 2006

  2. Agenda • Study Process • Study sponsors • Scope of work • Committee and its operations • Consultant work- BMI / SG • Web-based survey • Interviews • Other work

  3. Sponsors:Federal Highway AdministrationFederal Transit AdministrationUSDOT- Office of the Secretary

  4. Study Objectives • Gather information and determine the state of practice for metropolitan area travel demand modeling by metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). • Identify actions needed to ensure that the appropriate technical processes are being used for travel modeling

  5. Study Objectives(Specifically) • Are there technical shortcomings in the models for their intended uses, such as technical analysis of the Transportation Improvement Program and the Long-Range Plan, emissions analyses, FTA New Starts analyses, and NEPA analyses? • Identify actions needed to ensure that the appropriate technical processes are being used for travel modeling.

  6. Committee- 13 Members • Chair- Marty Wachs (Rand) • MPO- Mike Morris; Chuck Purvis; Guy Rousseau; Dick Walker; Ron Eash • State- Laura Cove; Mary Lynn Tischer • Academic- George Dresser; Bob Johnston; Eric Miller • Other- Tom Dean; Dick Pratt

  7. Committee Process • Independent, balanced, free of political and commercial interests or influence • Meet 4 times (last meeting May 19-20, ‘06) • Gather and consider information • Hire consultant, BMI-SG, for data collection and analysis • Draft final report- due for review in July • Pre-pub in fall 2006

  8. Invited to Present Information Jan 6 – 7, 2005 • Sponsors • EPA • AMPO • AASHTO • TRB Committees • Environmental Defense • TRB staff

  9. Invited to Present Information Sept 9, 2005 • Joint meeting with AMPO Travel Model Working Group • Presentation of Web-based Survey Results • Firing Line MPO comments • Open discussion

  10. Invited to Present Information Jan 20, 2006 • FHWA (Transims) • FTA (New Starts analyses) • FHWA (Freight and commercial travel forecasting)

  11. MPOs: 50,000 – 200,000

  12. MPOs: 200,000 – 1 million

  13. MPOs: > 1 million

  14. Surveys Sent and Responses Received(by MPO size)

  15. MPOs Providing Responses

  16. Model Characteristics • Majority of MPOs use 4-step process • Few MPOs use tour-based methods • Many MPOs omit mode choice • Some MPOs do no travel forecasting

  17. Trip Distribution • Gravity Model dominant methodology • Distributes person trips • Impedance • Mostly based on travel time over highway network. • Significant portion of large MPOs use function combining highway and transit times or other factors • About 1/2 of reporting MPOs apply some type of adjustment factors • “K” factors • Time penalties

  18. All 25% Large 43% MPO Size Medium 21% Small 22% Percent of MPOs Are you working toward any activity or tour-based approaches to replace the existing trip distribution model?

  19. U1. What are the best features of your model? • 32% of all MPOs stated that the best feature was ease of use/flexibility • 22% said the best feature was that the model was well calibrated and validated

  20. U2. Which features are most in need of improvement? • 27% of all MPOs stated that land use forecasting was the feature of their model that was most in need of improvement • This is followed by the detail and quality of the mode choice model (21%).

  21. BMI-SG Site Visits/Interviews • Obtain additional information from sample of MPOs • In-depth interviews of 11 MPOs / DOTs • Six agencies were visited • Five agencies completed the interview via phone

  22. Site Visit Topics of Discussion • Form and status of current models • Validation • Sensitivity Analysis • Data Cleaning • Post Processing • Staffing and Budget • Barriers to Improvement • Perceived Inadequacies

  23. BMI-SG Additional Work • Data cleaning for web-based survey updated tables, figures, and text for draft report of 9/1/2005. • Produce context-related cross-tabs and analysis from web-based and in-depth surveys, considering, e.g. a. AQ conformity status b. New starts c. Corridor studies d. High growth e. State vs. MPO responsibility f. Pricing / tolls g. Freight h. Congestion / ITS

  24. BMI-SG Additional Work Produce reports for the committee based on literature review; the web-based survey; site visits and phone interviews

  25. Committee’s Final Report Due in Fall 2006 Consultant Report on web-based survey is at- http://www.trb.org/publications/reports/BMI-SG-Sept2005-Draft.pdf

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