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National Focus, Local Touch COLLABORATION IS THE KEY

National Focus, Local Touch COLLABORATION IS THE KEY. Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., CEM General Manager, Emergency Preparedness Department City of Los Angeles. Geography and 100 Years of History, Dictate Preparedness Geography UNIQUE SEISMIC FAULT SYSTEM

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National Focus, Local Touch COLLABORATION IS THE KEY

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  1. National Focus,Local TouchCOLLABORATION IS THE KEY Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., CEM General Manager, Emergency Preparedness Department City of Los Angeles

  2. Geography and 100 Years of History, Dictate Preparedness Geography • UNIQUE SEISMIC FAULT SYSTEM • LOS ANGELES IS A DESERT AND IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING • WE HAVE MOUNTAINS ON WHICH WE BUILD HOUSES, CREATING IDEAL LANDSLIDE AND MUDFLOW CONDITIONS • ALTHOUGH WE ARE PART OF A HUGE URBAN AREA, WE HAVE WILD FIRES

  3. History 1992-2002 LOS ANGELES RESPONDS TO TEN EVENTS, EACH SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRESIDENTIAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS 20th Century MORE PEOPLE DIED IN LOS ANGELES AS A RESULT OF FLOODING THAN FROM EARTHQUAKES

  4. Community Leadership Opportunities Scientific Organizational Competencies New Capabilities Strategy Tomorrows Values Researchers Interest Societal Needs Shaping a Scientific Strategy

  5. This is a national problem • But Southern California alone has half the Nation’s risk

  6. The Big One — Which one do we pick? All 300 of them

  7. How bad will it be? • So big you can’t drive away from the disaster • Disruption to infrastructure

  8. All railroads and freeways into Los Angeles cross the San Andreas fault L A

  9. Major impacts • Disruption to transportation • 1950-1970 Midrise construction • Highrise? • Dams

  10. Fires?? • If the earthquake happens during Santa Ana conditions

  11. Science alone cannot stop the loss • The community must use the science to make decisions before we proceed.

  12. Implications for Southern California • Quantitative hazard assessment (importance of science) • Economic interdependence • Cost per day of delayed business recovery • Long-term economic impacts • Loss of market share • Plans for economic recovery • Plans for rapid rebuilding of lost infrastructure • Being isolated for weeks on end

  13. New Efforts in FY2007 • A systematic analysis of the southern San Andreas fault • Additional stream gauges to support flood analysis and forecasting • Debris flow early warning system for burned areas with NWS • A new process to determine future research directions with the decision makers of southern California

  14. Who will be involved? • Governmental Partners • Academia • Private Sector • NGOs Community Partners

  15. Why integrate the science? • We need the same data • We serve the same customers • We share the same goals • Improved understanding of the urban-earth interface • A safer southern California

  16. Then and Now

  17. Real-Time Earthquake Data • Notification for emergency response • ShakeMap • Decision making • Loss estimation • Aftershock probabilities E-mail http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/

  18. Integrated Warning System Components: Governance, Capacity-Building Monitoring and Assessment Public Education, Preparedness System Effectiveness System Institutionalization

  19. Warning Systems & Protective Action Warning Content, Timing, etc. Warning Decision Emergency Communications Cycle Data Collection and Analysis Warning Dissemination Self -Protective Action Public Perception Confirmation Public Education & Preparedness Technology Governance

  20. Warning of imminent earthquake shaking Strong shaking travels at 2 miles/sec. Warning

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