A core Course on Modeling

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A core Course on Modeling. Introduction to Modeling 0LAB0 0LBB0 0LCB0 0LDB0 c.w.a.m.v.overveld@tue.nl v.a.j.borghuis@tue.nl S.29. formulate purpose. define. Right problem? (problem validation). Right concepts? (concepts validation). identify entities. choose relations.

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### A core Course on Modeling

Introductionto Modeling

0LAB0 0LBB0 0LCB0 0LDB0

c.w.a.m.v.overveld@tue.nl

v.a.j.borghuis@tue.nl

S.29

formulate

purpose

define

Right problem?

(problem validation)

Right concepts?

(concepts validation)

identify

entities

choose

relations

conceptualize

obtain

values

formalize

relations

formalize

Right model?

(model verification)

operate

model

obtain

result

execute

present

result

interpret

result

Right outcome?

(outcome verification)

conclude

Execution: obtainresult;

Reflection: interpretresult

Confidenceforglass box models

• Glass box modelscomputevaluesfor output quantities in dependency of input quantities.

For everypurpose, defined in terms of output quantities, fulfilling the purpose means that the uncertaintydistribution on the output quantitiesshouldbesufficiently small.

So we shouldknowthisuncertaintytoknowif the model result is OK.

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001766655282.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models (structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/695781

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

expected

output

calculated

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/t/taliesin/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001331160119.jpg

input

input

output

select any pair of quantities, andgraphicallycomparetheirdependency with whatyouexpect, ...

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

QUIZ

How do youexpect, in a taxi company, that the profitdepends on the world gasoline price?

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

expected

output

calculated

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/t/taliesin/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001331160119.jpg

input

input

output

select any pair of quantities, andgraphicallycomparetheirdependency with whatyouexpect, ...

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

expected

output

calculated

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/t/taliesin/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001331160119.jpg

input

input

output

select any pair of quantities, andgraphicallycomparetheirdependency with whatyouexpect, ...

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

expected

output

calculated

input

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/621362

output

input

... in particulariftheyinvolve multiple parallel routes ...

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

QUIZ

How do youexpect, in a taxi company, that the profitdepends on the km pricecharged?

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

expected

output

calculated

input

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/621362

output

input

... in particulariftheyinvolve multiple parallel routes ...

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

expected

output

calculated

input

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/621362

output

input

... in particulariftheyinvolve multiple parallel routes ...

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/13201

• Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

output

expected?

calculated?

input

output

... andifthere is no dependency, there is no graph.

input

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001143496830.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

QUIZ

How do youexpect, in the streetlanternproblem, thatperceivedintensity maxima and minima willbeiflanterns get  far apart?

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001143496830.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001143496830.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/7280

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

QUIZ

What do youexpecttobe the intensity right underneath a lantern?

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/7280

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/7280

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged

QUIZ

Whathappens, in the streetlanternproblem, with the intensity in some point r if the number of streetlampsincreases?

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged

QUIZ

Which of these four tests are validationandwhich are verification?

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence)

1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork

2: examineif the long range behavioris correct

3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct

4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged

validation

validation

validation

http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

verification