A core Course on Modeling

1. A core Course on Modeling Introductionto Modeling 0LAB0 0LBB0 0LCB0 0LDB0 c.w.a.m.v.overveld@tue.nl v.a.j.borghuis@tue.nl S.29

2. formulate purpose define Right problem? (problem validation) Right concepts? (concepts validation) identify entities choose relations conceptualize obtain values formalize relations formalize Right model? (model verification) operate model obtain result execute present result interpret result Right outcome? (outcome verification) conclude Execution: obtainresult; Reflection: interpretresult Right answer? (answerverification)

3. Confidenceforglass box models • Glass box modelscomputevaluesfor output quantities in dependency of input quantities. For everypurpose, defined in terms of output quantities, fulfilling the purpose means that the uncertaintydistribution on the output quantitiesshouldbesufficiently small. So we shouldknowthisuncertaintytoknowif the model result is OK. http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001766655282.jpg

4. Confidenceforglass box models (structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/695781

5. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork expected output calculated http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/t/taliesin/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001331160119.jpg input input output select any pair of quantities, andgraphicallycomparetheirdependency with whatyouexpect, ...

6. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) QUIZ How do youexpect, in a taxi company, that the profitdepends on the world gasoline price? 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork expected output calculated http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/t/taliesin/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001331160119.jpg input input output select any pair of quantities, andgraphicallycomparetheirdependency with whatyouexpect, ...

7. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork expected output calculated http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/t/taliesin/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001331160119.jpg input input output select any pair of quantities, andgraphicallycomparetheirdependency with whatyouexpect, ...

8. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork expected output calculated input http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/621362 output input ... in particulariftheyinvolve multiple parallel routes ...

9. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) QUIZ How do youexpect, in a taxi company, that the profitdepends on the km pricecharged? 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork expected output calculated input http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/621362 output input ... in particulariftheyinvolve multiple parallel routes ...

10. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork expected output calculated input http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/621362 output input ... in particulariftheyinvolve multiple parallel routes ...

11. http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/13201 • Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork output expected? calculated? input output ... andifthere is no dependency, there is no graph. input

12. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001143496830.jpg

13. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct QUIZ How do youexpect, in the streetlanternproblem, thatperceivedintensity maxima and minima willbeiflanterns get  far apart? http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001143496830.jpg

14. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/h/hotblack/preview/fldr_2008_11_02/file0001143496830.jpg

15. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/7280

16. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct QUIZ What do youexpecttobe the intensity right underneath a lantern? http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/7280

17. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct http://www.morguefile.com/archive/display/7280

18. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct 4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

19. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct 4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged QUIZ Whathappens, in the streetlanternproblem, with the intensity in some point r if the number of streetlampsincreases? http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

20. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct 4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

21. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct 4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged QUIZ Which of these four tests are validationandwhich are verification? http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg

22. Confidenceforglass box models(structuralconfidence) 1: examinedependencies in the functionalnetwork 2: examineif the long range behavioris correct 3: examineifsingularbehavior is correct 4: examineifthingsthatshouldconverge have converged validation validation validation http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/m/mrmac04/preview/fldr_2008_11_28/file000131256114.jpg verification