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CHAPTER 3. Analysis of Financial Statements. Topics in Chapter. Ratio analysis Du Pont system Effects of improving ratios Limitations of ratio analysis Qualitative factors. Determinants of Intrinsic Value: Using Ratio Analysis. Net operating profit after taxes. Required investments

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chapter 3

CHAPTER 3

Analysis of Financial Statements

topics in chapter
Topics in Chapter
  • Ratio analysis
  • Du Pont system
  • Effects of improving ratios
  • Limitations of ratio analysis
  • Qualitative factors
slide3

Determinants of Intrinsic Value:

Using Ratio Analysis

Net operating

profit after taxes

Required investments

in operating capital

Free cash flow

(FCF)

=

FCF1

FCF2

FCF∞

...

Value = + + +

(1 + WACC)1

(1 + WACC)2

(1 + WACC)∞

Weighted average

cost of capital

(WACC)

Market interest rates

Firm’s debt/equity mix

Cost of debt

Cost of equity

Market risk aversion

Firm’s business risk

overview
Overview
  • Ratios facilitate comparison of:
    • One company over time
    • One company versus other companies
  • Ratios are used by:
    • Lenders to determine creditworthiness
    • Stockholders to estimate future cash flows and risk
    • Managers to identify areas of weakness and strength
five categories of fin ratios
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
  • Liquidity
  • Asset Mgmt
  • Debt Mgmt
  • Profitability
  • Market Value
five categories of fin ratios1
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
  • Liquidity: Ability to meet current obligations
  • Asset Mgmt: Proper & effective use of assets
    • Asset utilization (i.e., Total Asset Turnover Ratio:
      • TAT = Sales / T. Assets
  • Debt Mgmt: extent of debt & level of safety afforded creditors
    • Debt utilization (i.e., Equity Multiplier:
      • EM = T. Assets / T. Eqty
five categories of fin ratios2
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
  • Profitability: reflects effects of liquidity, asset mgmt, & debt on operating results
    • Expense Control: Profit Margin:
      • PM = Net Income / Sales
  • Market Value: indicators of what investors think of firm’s past results & future prospects
liquidity ratios
Liquidity Ratios
  • Can the company meet its short-term obligations using resources it currently has on hand?
forecasted current and quick ratios for 2011
Forecasted Current and Quick Ratios for 2011.

$2,680

$1,040

CA

CL

CR10 = = = 2.58.

CA - Inv.

CL

QR10 =

$2,680 - $1,716

$1,040

= = 0.93.

comments on cr and qr
Comments on CR and QR
  • Expected to improve but still below industry average.
  • Liquidity position is weak.
asset management ratios
Asset Management Ratios
  • How efficiently does firm use its assets?
  • How much does firm have tied up in assets for each dollar of sales?
inventory turnover ratio vs industry average

Sales

Inventories

2011E 2010 2009 Ind.

Inv. T. 4.1 4.5 4.8 6.1

Inventory Turnover Ratio vs. Industry Average

Inv. turnover =

= = 4.10.

$7,036

$1,716

comments on inventory turnover
Comments on Inventory Turnover
  • Inventory turnover:
  • Firm might have old inventory, or its control might be poor.
  • No improvement is currently forecasted.

Below industry average

dso average number of days from sale until cash received
DSO: average number of days from sale until cash received.

Receivables

Average sales per day

DSO =

= =

= 45.5 days.

$878

$7,036/365

Receivables

Sales/365

appraisal of dso

2011 2010 2009 Ind.

DSO 45.5 39.5 37.4 32.0

Appraisal of DSO
  • Firm collects too slowly, and situation is getting worse.
  • Poor credit policy.
fixed assets and total assets turnover ratios
Fixed Assets and Total AssetsTurnover Ratios

Fixed assets

turnover

Sales 

Net fixed assets

=

= = 8.41.

$7,036

$837

Total assets

turnover

Sales

Total assets

=

= = 2.00.

$7,036

$3,517

fixed assets and total assets turnover ratios1
Fixed Assets and Total AssetsTurnover Ratios
  • FA turnover:
  • TA turnover not up to industry average. Implication?

expected to exceed industry average.

Good.

Caused by excessive current assets (A/R and inventory).

debt management ratios
Debt Management Ratios
  • Does company have too much debt?
  • Can company’s earnings meet its debt servicing requirements?
calculate the debt tie and ebitda coverage ratios
Calculate the debt, TIE, and EBITDA coverage ratios.

Total liabilities

Total assets

Debt ratio =

= = 43.8%.

$1,040 + $500

$3,517

EBIT

Int. expense

TIE =

= = 6.3.

$502.6

$80

(More…)

ebitda coverage ec
EBITDA Coverage (EC)

+ Lease payments

+ Depr. & Amort.

EBIT

_________

= = 5.5.

Interest

expense

+ Lease Pmt. + Loan pmt.

$502.6 + $120 + $40

$80 + $40 + $0

debt management ratios vs industry averages

2011E 2010 2009 Ind.

D/A 43.8% 80.7% 54.8% 50.0%

TIE 6.3 0.1 3.3 6.2

EC 5.5 0.8 2.6 8.0

Debt Management Ratios vs. Industry Averages

Recapitalization improved situation, but lease pmtsdrag down EBITDA Cov.

equity multiplier t assets cmn eqty
Equity Multiplier = T. Assets/Cmn Eqty
  • Firms with large amts of debt financing (high leverage) have high Eqty Multiplier
  • Think: Assets = Debt + Eqty
equity multiplier t assets cmn eqty1
Equity Multiplier = T. Assets/Cmn Eqty
  • Firms with small amts of debt financing (low leverage) have smaller Eqty Multiplier
profitability ratios
Profitability Ratios
  • What is company’s rate of return on:
    • Sales?
    • Assets?
profit margins

NI

Sales

EBIT

Sales

$503

$7,036

$253.6

$7,036

PM = = = 3.6%.

OM = = = 7.1%.

Net profit margin (PM):

Operating profit margin (OM):

(More…)

Profit Margins
profit margins continued
Profit Margins (Continued)

Gross profit margin (GPM):

Sales − COGS

Sales

$7,036 − $5,800

$7,036

GPM = =

$1,236

$7,036

GPM = = 17.6%.

profit margins vs industry averages

2011E 2010 2009 Ind.

PM 3.6% -1.6% 2.6% 3.6%

OPM 7.1 0.3 6.1 7.1

GPM 17.6 14.6 16.6 15.5

Profit Margins vs. Industry Averages

Very bad in 2010, but projected to

meet or exceed industry average in 2011.

basic earning power bep

EBIT

Total assets

BEP =

= =

$502.6

$3,517

Basic Earning Power (BEP)

=14.3%

basic earning power vs industry average

2011E 2010 2009 Ind.

BEP 14.3% 0.6% 14.2% 17.8%

Basic Earning Power vs. Industry Average
  • BEP removes effect of taxes and financial leverage. Useful for comparison.
  • Projected to be below average.
  • Room for improvement.
return on assets roa and return on equity roe

NI

Total assets

ROA =

= = 7.2%.

$253.6

$3,517

(More…)

Return on Assets (ROA)and Return on Equity (ROE)
return on assets roa and return on equity roe1

NI

Common Equity

ROE =

= = 12.8%.

$253.6

$1,977

(More…)

Return on Assets (ROA)and Return on Equity (ROE)
roa and roe vs industry averages

2011E 2010 2009 Ind.

ROA 7.2% -3.3% 6.0% 9.0%

ROE 12.8% -17.1% 13.3% 18.0%

ROA and ROE vs. Industry Averages

Both below average but improving.

effects of debt on roa roe
Effects of Debt on ROA & ROE

No Debt (unlevered) vs. Debt (levered)

effects of debt on roa and roe
Effects of Debt on ROA and ROE
  • ROA is lowered by debt--interest expense lowers net income, which also lowers ROA.
  • However, use of debt lowers equity, and if equity is lowered more than net income, ROE increases.
important implications of debt financing financial leverage
Important Implications of Debt Financing (Financial Leverage)
  • By raising $ thru debt, stockholders can maintain control of firm w/o increasing their investment.
  • Greater the equity stake, the less risk faced by lenders (creditors)
  • If company earns greater return on investment financed with debt than it pays in interest on borrowed funds, then it the return on owners equity is magnified, or leveraged.
the internal growth rate
The Internal Growth Rate
  • The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow assets using retained earnings as the only source of financing.
  • Intrnl Grth rate = (ROA x Retention %)

1- (ROA x Retention %)

the sustainable growth rate
The Sustainable Growth Rate
  • The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow by using internally generated funds and issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio.
  • Sustnbl Grth rate = (ROE x Retention %)

1- (ROE x Retention %)

market value ratios
Market Value Ratios
  • Market value ratios: gives mgmt indication of what investors think of co.’s past performance & future prospects
market value ratios1
Market Value Ratios
  • Increase /decrease:
    • High current levels of earnings and cash flow increase market value ratios
    • High expected growth in earnings and cash flow increases market value ratios
    • High risk of expected growth in earnings and cash flow decreases market value ratios
market value ratios2
Market Value Ratios
  • P/E = Mrkt price per share / Earning per share
  • PEG ratio= (Price/Earnings) / Growth

PEG <1.0 reflects fairly valued stock

  • M/B= Mrkt price p.s. / Book Value p.s.
  • P/CF=Price p.s. / CF p.s.
calculate and appraise the p e p cf and m b ratios

Price = $12.17.

EPS = = = $1.01.

P/E = = = 12.

NI

Shares out.

$253.6

250

Price per share

EPS

$12.17

$1.01

Calculate and appraise theP/E, P/CF, and M/B ratios.
market based ratios

CF per share =

= = $1.49.

NI + Depr.

Shares out.

$253.6 + $120.0

250

Price per share

Cash flow per share

P/CF =

= = 8.2.

$12.17

$1.49

Market Based Ratios
market based ratios continued

Com. equity

Shares out.

BVPS =

= = $7.91.

$1,977

250

Mkt. price per share

Book value per share

M/B =

= = 1.54.

$12.17

$7.91

Market Based Ratios (Continued)
interpreting market based ratios
Interpreting Market Based Ratios
  • P/E: How much investors will pay for $1 of earnings. Higher is better.
  • M/B: How much paid for $1 of book value. Higher is better.
  • P/E and M/B are high if ROE is high, risk is low.
market value measures
Market Value Measures
  • Value Stocks: Firms w/ low Mrkt to Book ratios
  • Growth Stocks: Firms w/ high Mrkt to Book ratios
  • Market Capitalization = Mrkt Value of Common Equity
  • Enterprise Value= MV equity + MV debt – Cash – mrktbl securities. Measures value of firm’s underlying business
comparison with industry averages

2011E 2010 2009 Ind.

P/E 12.0 -6.3 9.7 14.2

P/CF 8.2 27.5 8.0 7.6

M/B 1.5 1.1 1.3 2.9

Comparison with Industry Averages
explain the du pont system
Explain the Du Pont System
  • The Du Pont system focuses on:
    • Expense control (PM)
    • Asset utilization (TATO)
    • Debt utilization (EM)
  • It shows how these factors combine to determine the ROE.
the du pont system
The Du Pont System

( )( )( ) = ROE

Profit

margin

TA

turnover

Equity

multiplier

NI

Sales

Sales

TA

TA

CE

= ROE

x

x

du pont corp operations
Du Pont & Corp Operations

( )( )( ) = ROE

TA

turnover

Equity

multiplier

Profit

margin

NI

Sales

Sales

TA

TA

CE

x

= ROE

x

the du pont system1

NI

Sales

Sales

TA

TA

CE

= ROE

x

x

The Du Pont System

2008: 2.6% x 2.3 x 2.2 = 13.2%

2009: -1.6% x 2.0 x 5.2 = -16.6%

2010: 3.6% x 2.0 x 1.8 = 13.0%

Ind.: 3.6% x 2.5 x 2.0 = 18.0%

analysis of common size balance sheets
Analysis of Common Size Balance Sheets
  • Computron has higher proportion of inventory and current assets than Industry.
  • Computron now has more equity (which means LESS debt) than Industry.
  • Computron has more short-term debt than industry, but less long-term debt than industry.
analysis of common size income statements
Analysis of Common Size Income Statements
  • Computron has lower COGS (86.7) than industry (84.5), but higher other expenses. Result is that Computron has similar EBIT (7.1) as industry.
analysis of percent change income statement
Analysis of Percent Change Income Statement
  • We see that 2011 sales grew 105% from 2009, and that NI grew 188% from 2009.
  • So Computron has become more profitable.
analysis of percent change balance sheets
Analysis of Percent Change Balance Sheets
  • Total assets grew at rate of 139%, while sales grew at rate of only 105%. So asset utilization remains a problem.
potential problems and limitations of ratio analysis
Potential Problems and Limitations of Ratio Analysis
  • Comparison with industry averages is difficult if firm operates many different divisions.
  • Seasonal factors can distort ratios.
  • Window dressing techniques can make statements and ratios look better.
  • Different accounting and operating practices can distort comparisons.
qualitative factors
Qualitative Factors
  • There is greater risk if:
    • revenues tied to a single customer
    • revenues tied to a single product
    • reliance on a single supplier?
    • High percentage of business is generated overseas?
  • What is competitive situation?
  • What products are in pipeline?
  • What are legal and regulatory issues?