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Brazilian Proposal - MATCH Project Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes From Land-Use Change and Forestry in the 1990s: A Multi-Model Study.

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slide1

Brazilian Proposal - MATCH Project

Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes From

Land-Use Change and Forestry in the 1990s: A Multi-Model Study

○ Akinori Ito, Joyce Penner, Michael Prather, Christiano Pires de Campos, Richard Houghton, Tomomichi Kato, Atul Jain, Xiaojuan Yang, George Hurtt, Steve Frolking, Matthew Fearon, Loiuse Parsons Chini, Audrey Wang, and David Price

Kteam1 meeting 12/04/2007

slide2

Contents

  • 1. Introduction
  • Methods
  • 3. Results
  • 3.1. Land cover change area
  • 3.2. Carbon pools
  • 3.3. Carbon fluxes
  • 3.4. Country analysis
  • 3.5. Global and regional analysis for 1990s
  • 3.6. Historical analysis
  • 4. Summary and conclusion
slide3

Brazilian Proposal - MATCH Project

1997

As part of the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, the delegation of Brazil made a proposal, to set differentiated emissions reduction targets for Annex I Parties of the UNFCCC according to the impact of their historic emissions on temperature rise.

2002 

After two expert meetings held under the auspices of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA), the SBSTA agreed that the work should be continued by the scientific community. Subsequently, further expert meetings were held on the initiative of the governments of UK, Brazil and Germany for the now called “Ad-hoc group for the modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change (MATCH)”.

2007

“In-session special side event” at SBSTA 27, the presentation of MATCH papers is delivered to UNFCCC delegations in Indonesia.

slide5

Purpose

Compare estimates of C fluxes due to LUCF.

Identify the reasons for differences in estimates.

Focus on land-use change activities and carbon pools over the 1990s.

slide6

Contents

  • 1. Introduction
  • Methods
  • 3. Results
  • 3.1. Land cover change area
  • 3.2. Carbon pools
  • 3.3. Carbon fluxes
  • 3.4. Country analysis
  • 3.5. Global and regional analysis for 1990s
  • 3.6. Historical analysis
  • 4. Summary and conclusion
slide7

Land-Use Change Areas Data Sets

Name Study Resolution Data source

LUC1 Houghton, 2006 Region/country FAO

LUC2 De Campos et al., 2006 Country HYDE/FAOSAT

LUC3 Kato et al., 2007 T42 (2.8°) SAGE/HYDE

LUC4 Hurtt et al., 2006 1° HYDE/FAOSTAT

LUC5 Hurtt et al., 2006 1° SAGE/LUC4

LUC6 Wang et al., 2006 0.5° SAGE/GLC2000

slide8

Comparison Analysis of Land-Use Change Emissions

Net CO2 emissions

1. Inventory approach

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC)

2. Forward model

Book-keeping models and Ecosystem models

3. Inverse model

slide9

LUCF Carbon Pool and Flux Data

Name Study Resolution Method Land use data

EMI1 Houghton, 2006 Region/Country Book-keeping LUC1

EMI2 UNFCCC, 2000 Country Inventory National inventory

EMI3 Olivier and Berdowski, 2001 Country Inventory FAO

EMI4 Hurtt et al., 2006/2002(USA) Country/1°(USA) Inventory/process National statistics

EMI5 De Campos et al., 2006 Country Book-keeping LUC2

EMI6 Kato et al., 2007 T42 (2.8°) Process model LUC3

EMI7 Jain and Yang, 2005 0.5° Process model SAGE

slide10

Reconciled Estimates in 10 regions

(EMI4 for USA)

Type of Land Use EMI1 EMI4 EMI5 EMI6 EMI7

(1) CO2/climate change N.A. N.A. N.A. Data6.1 Data7.1

(2) Crop conversion Data1.1 Data4.1 Data5.1 Data6.2 Data7.2

(3) Pasture conversion Data1.2 Data4.1 Data5.1 Data6.2 N.A.

(4) Shifting cultivation Data1.3 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

(5) Harvest of wood Data1.4 Data4.1 N.A. N.A. N.A.

(6) Afforestation Data1.5 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

(7) Fire suppression Data1.6 Data4.2 N.A. N.A. N.A.

(8) Soils Data1.7 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

slide11

Contents

  • 1. Introduction
  • Methods
  • 3. Results
  • 3.1. Land cover change area
  • 3.2. Carbon pools
  • 3.3. Carbon fluxes
  • 3.4. Country analysis
  • 3.5. Global and regional analysis for 1990s
  • 3.6. Historical analysis
  • 4. Summary and conclusion
slide12

Global land-use change areas (102 km2 yr-1) in forests

SAGE

Afforestation (+)

SAGE

SAGE

Brazil

HYDE

HYDE

Cropland

Pastureland

deforestation (-)

HYDE; Klein Goldewijk, 2001, SAGE; Ramankutty and Foley, 1998, 1999

slide13

Contents

  • 1. Introduction
  • Methods
  • 3. Results
  • 3.1. Land cover change area
  • 3.2. Carbon pools
  • 3.3. Carbon fluxes
  • 3.4. Country analysis
  • 3.5. Global and regional analysis for 1990s
  • 3.6. Historical analysis
  • 4. Summary and conclusion
slide14

Global Carbon Pools (PgC) in 1990s

SOC: Soil organic carbon + litter

VC: Vegetation carbon

USA

slide15

Contents

  • 1. Introduction
  • Methods
  • 3. Results
  • 3.1. Land cover change area
  • 3.2. Carbon pools
  • 3.3. Carbon fluxes
  • 3.4. Country analysis
  • 3.5. Global and regional analysis for 1990s
  • 3.6. Historical analysis
  • 4. Summary and conclusion
slide16

Global LUCF Fluxes (TgC yr-1) in 1990s

  • Carbon pool
  • LUCF + environmental factors
slide17

Global LUCF Fluxes (TgC yr-1) in 1990s

Each LUCF + environmental factors

slide21

Contents

  • 1. Introduction
  • Methods
  • 3. Results
  • 3.1. Land cover change area
  • 3.2. Carbon pools
  • 3.3. Carbon fluxes
  • 3.4. Country analysis
  • 3.5. Global and regional analysis for 1990s
  • 3.6. Historical analysis
  • 4. Summary and conclusion
slide24

USA Carbon Fluxes (TgC yr-1) in 1990s

Inverse estimate [Baker et al., 2006]: −1100 ± 230 TgC yr‑1

Other sinks [Pacala et al., 2001]:−40 to −170 TgC yr‑1

slide27

Inter-annual variability for Latin America in 1990s

EMI1

EMI5

EMI8

EMI7

EMI6

Inverse estimate [Baker et al., 2006]: 0.43 ± 0.86 PgC yr‑1

slide28

Take Home Messages

  • There are large differences between LUCF estimates at the regional level due to different reasons in different countries. Clearly, further work is required to reduce the differences between these estimates.
    • Our consolidated estimate of the global terrestrial carbon flux (–0.4 PgC/yr) is within the uncertainty range given in the AR4 assessment (which was derived from a combination of inverse models and observations) (–1.0 ± 0.6 PgC/yr).
    • Our consolidated estimate of terrestrial carbon flux yields a rather low result for Latin America (−0.17 PgC/yr) in 1990s but within the uncertainty range of inversion estimates (0.43 ± 0.86 PgC/yr) [Baker et al., 2006]. However, our consolidated estimate shows smaller interannual variability for Latin America and a weaker uptake than the inverse estimates for Temperate North America. The differences between the net fluxes estimated by the emissions models and by the atmospheric inversions can be caused by large uncertainties in LIT and SOC sinks for the USA and by significant uncertainties in short-term fluxes for Latin America, as well as by different responses to LUCF and ENV.