1 / 70

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Getting Indigestion”

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Getting Indigestion”. With John Thomas San Francisco January 22, 2014 www.madhedgefundtrader.com. Trade Alert Performance Maintaining Momentum, but Cutting Back Risk.

yves
Download Presentation

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Getting Indigestion”

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“Getting Indigestion” With John ThomasSan Francisco January 22, 2014www.madhedgefundtrader.com

  2. Trade Alert PerformanceMaintaining Momentum, but Cutting Back Risk *2013 Final +67.45%, compared to 26%for the Dow, beating it by 41.45%*January MTD +5.78%, versus -1% for Dow*First 162 weeks of Trading +128.3%*Versus +47% for the Dow AverageAn 83% outperformance of the index 9 out of 9 closed trades profitable in 2014100% Success Rate in 2014

  3. Portfolio Review-Reassessing riskwaiting for next capitulation day in a modest correction Expiration P&L+6.74% YTD

  4. 2014 Performance +5.78%Since 2013 +73.23

  5. 37 Months Since Inception+128.3%, Averaged annualized +41.26%

  6. MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com Auckland, New ZealandFebruary 12 Sydney, AustraliaFebruary 14

  7. MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com Melbourne, AustraliaFebruary 20 Brisbane, AustraliaFebruary 22

  8. Strategy Outlook-Buy the Dips, Risk On Lives *Bull market in risk assets continues well into 2014, but are now vastly over extended, take short term profits*Time to reassess, reduce risk*Bonds testing bottom of new range at 2.80%*Yen oversold, needs to consolidate a big move down*Don’t catch the falling knife in gold,the world wants paper assets, bottom isn’t in yet*Emerging markets still unloved, but may bottom soon, will be a rotation play*Commodities looking very cheap, must do well this year

  9. The Global Economy-Ramping Up *Global synchronized recovery still the play for 2014, the US, Europe, China, and Japan all grow together for the first time since 2007*World Bank ups forecast for global growth from 2.4% to 3.2%, with developed countries taking the lead for first time in 7 years*December nonfarm payroll on only 74,000 is an anomaly caused by weather, short calendar, expect upward revisions next month, 6.6% unemployment rate is the real number*Watch out for an Iran peace dividend*China reports Q4 GDP of 7.7%,better than expected

  10. Weekly Jobless Claims-2,000 drop to 339,000

  11. December Nonfarm PayrollThe big anomaly, weather driven

  12. Bonds-Another Poor Year Ahead *Bear Market continuesTaper II scheduled for next week, another $10 billion cut in Fed bond buying to $60 billion a month*Most analysts targeting 3.5% yield on ten year Treasury for 2014, up from 2.95%, could spike to 4%*No Fed move on interest rates for a year*Another taper will come in the firsthalf, but is already priced in*Sell every rally

  13. Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) took profits in the 1/$104-$107don’t sell into a pit

  14. 10 Year Treasury Yield ($TNX)-Yield 2.83%

  15. Junk Bonds (HYG) 6.17% Yield

  16. 2X Short Treasuries (TBT)-Entering buy territory

  17. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)3.84% Yield

  18. Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 4.18% Yield

  19. Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2.93% yield,Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds

  20. MLP’s (LINE) 9.60% Yield

  21. Stocks – Indigestion Time *Still digesting the enormous gains of 2013*Could flat line longer before the next rally*Is a temporary move, bull market resumeswhen year end effects end*Wait for a capitulation day to rebuildpositions*Money moving from crap to quality

  22. S&P 500 (SPX)-Begging for a Correctiontook profits on the 1/$173-$176 call spread

  23. Dow Average-Down on the Year

  24. NASDAQ (QQQ)-New 13 year Highs

  25. Europe, Asia, Far East (EFA)

  26. (VIX)-Dead as a Doorknob

  27. Russell 2000 (IWM)

  28. Apple (AAPL)-Takes a Hit on tax selling after 48% gain in 6 monthstook profits on the 1/$490-$520 call spreadearnings on January 27

  29. Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM)took profits on the 1/$33-$35 call spread

  30. Cyclicals Sector SPDR (XLY), (UCC)

  31. Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)

  32. Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL)

  33. Financial Select SPDR (XLF)took profits on the 1/$19-$21 call spread

  34. Financial Select SPDR (XLE)took profits on the 1/$83-$86 call spread, but came out too soon

  35. Softbank (SFTBY) – losing momentum

  36. Gilead Sciences (GILD)took profits on the 1/$67.50-$70 call spread

  37. Shanghai-Double Bottom setting up?

  38. (DXJ)-Upside breakout on more aggressive monetary easing,assets up from $300 million to $12 billion in 14 months

  39. Emerging Markets (EEM)Trapped by the commodity complex, and rising rates

  40. Dollar-Yen is the Big Story *Successful breakdown targets ¥125 in the cash, $75 in the (FXY), will be the big foreign currency trade of 2014, again. *But needs to consolidate first*Eurozone inflation falls to 0.7% vs 2% target, Q2 & Q3 GDP 0.3% and 0.1%, so more room for interest rates cuts and a falling Euro*Ausie Central Bank Governor still talking it down, December 22,600 jobless figure kills*Euro downtrend resumes, sell rallies

  41. Long Dollar Basket (UUP)-Ready for Takeoff?

  42. Rising Dollar is Great for US Stocksstrong greenback sucks in huge foreign inflows

  43. Strong Dollar is Terrible for Commoditiesas investors flee dollar alternatives and deflation

  44. Japanese Yen (FXY)-Consolidation of Major breakdown Nextlong the 1/$95-$98 put spread

  45. Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)-

  46. Euro (FXE)-Double Top in Place

  47. Euro (FXE)- Rising Unemployment and falling inflation is bad for the Euro, leaves room for more interest rate cuts

  48. Australian Dollar (FXA)-Talking down the Aussie again

  49. Emerging Market Currencies (CEW)

  50. Crude-In balance, stuck in range, no trade *Harsh east coast winter is supporting oil and natural gas*So is a global economic recovery*Geneva Iran negations overhanging the market, but is a multi year affair*Ever present new supplies ofnatural gas

More Related