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Plausibility Ranges for Population Estimates. Focusing on ranges for children. Outline. Aims Data sources Approaches Results for children Research on other age groups Summary of benefits. Aim. Administrative sources. High estimate of population. Explore and Combine.

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slide1

Plausibility Ranges for Population Estimates

Focusing on ranges for children

outline
Outline

Aims

Data sources

Approaches

Results for children

Research on other age groups

Summary of benefits

slide3
Aim

Administrative sources

High estimate of population

Explore and Combine

Low estimate of population

data sources patient register 0 15
Data sources: Patient Register (0-15)

Usually resident population aged 0 to 15

GP Patient Register

Short term migrants

Non-registration or registration lag for in-migrants

List inflation or registration lag for out-migrants

Erroneous list cleaning

Multiple or duplicate NHS numbers

School boarders

Usual residents registered with a GP

  • Adjusted to remove short-term migrants and duplicate records
data sources child benefit 0 15
Data sources: Child benefit (0-15)

Usually resident population aged 0 to 15

Child Benefit

  • Adjustments to the child benefit data to compensate for coverage differences were not possible.

Short term immigrants

Non-registration or registration lag

Change of details lag for out-migrants

Change of details lag for in-migrants

Children living abroad

Clerical claims

School boarders

Usual residents registered for Child Benefit

data sources live births age 0
Data sources: Live births (age 0)

Usually resident population aged 0

Live Births

  • The live births data has been adjusted for infant mortality (IMR).
  • To allow for internal migration between birth and mid-year, the live births minus IMR has been re-distributed to local authorities using Child Benefit data.

Emigration between birth and mid-year

Immigration between birth and mid-year

Out-migrants between birth and mid-year

Infant mortality

In-migrants between birth and mid-year

Usual residents born in LA j

data sources school census 3 15
Data sources: School Census (3-15)

Usually resident population aged 3 to 15

School Census

  • Although the School Census was available at individual record level, it was not possible to make any adjustments for over coverage.

Short term immigrants

Attendance lag for immigrants

Change of details lag for out-migrants

Change of details lag for in-migrants

Children at independent schools, pupil referral units or home educated

Multiple pupil reference numbers

Children aged 3

and 4

Usual residents at a state maintained school

School boarders

aggregate data tolerance range approach
Aggregate data: tolerance range approach

Step 1

For example...

Patient Register = 3000

High source (LA j)

Difference

= 400

Difference

(LA j)

Mid-Point = 2800

Mid-point (LA j)

Child Benefit = 2600

Low source (LA j)

aggregate data tolerance range approach1
Aggregate data: tolerance range approach

Step 2

Range size (LA j) = 2 x Difference (LA j)

3200

Upper limit (LA j)

Difference (400)

from Step 1

High source

Mid-point (LA j)

2800

Range size

(LA j = 800)

Low source

Lower limit (LA j)

2400

aggregate data tolerance range approach2
Aggregate data: tolerance range approach

Step 3

Percentage range size (LA j)

=

Range size (LA j) / Mid-point(LA j)

Size of range

(% of mid-point)

max %

min %

rank of LAs

10% of LAs

10% of LAs

  • Range size (%) restricted to prevent very narrow or wide ranges.
slide12

Record-level sources (LA j)

e.g. Patient Register

e.g. School Census

unlinked School Census

unlinked Patient Register

Linked dataset

Lower limit

Upper limit

High linkage rate =

Narrow range

for LA j

summary of approaches
Summary of approaches

Age group

Approach

Source

Under 1s

Tolerance range

Combines Patient Register and Live Births adjusted with Child Benefit

1 to 4 year olds

Tolerance range

Combines Patient Register and Child Benefit

5 to 7 year olds

8 to 11 year olds

12 to 15 year olds

Lower limit – linkage approach

Lower limit

Linked Patient register and school Census (England)

Upper limit

Combines Patient register and Child Benefit

Upper limit –Tolerance range

results summary e g all las males 8 11
Results: summary e.g. all LAs (males 8-11)
  • Relatively few areas with estimates out of range
  • Where areas have estimates out of range, often by small amount
  • Rare for areas to have estimates more than 5% above upper limit or below lower limit
  • Ranges quite narrow for ages 0 and 1-4, and more areas slightly out of range
plausibility ranges for children
Plausibility ranges for children
  • Plausibility ranges are proof of concept at this stage
  • Project allowed us to demonstrate techniques using aggregate and record level data
  • Results published 27 March 2012 (report and Excel-based tool)
  • Results were discussed with LAs at roadshows
  • Plan to further evaluate ranges in future
research 18 24 age group
Research: 18-24 age group
  • Age at which people most likely to migrate
  • Sources: L2, HESA, Patient Register
  • Where Patient Register is lower than population estimates, these areas are predominantly university towns
  • Tested approach with HESA and PRDS linkage
  • Further work on matching required
research 25 59 64 age group
Research: 25-59/64 age group
  • Investigated use of confidence intervals around estimates Local Labour Market Database (L2)
  • For quinary age groups sample size often small
  • Difficulty with excluding short-term migrants from latest tax-year data
  • Not yet able to apply a universal method for all LAs using the L2
research over retirement age group
Research: over retirement age group
  • Patient Register and Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study compared
  • Data sources were often very close to each other, potentially leading to ranges that were not diagnostically useful
  • Large differences between the sources for females aged 60-64 and males aged 65-69
  • Surprising result that population estimate higher than PR and WPLS in 90+ age group
summary of benefits
Summary of benefits
  • Gathered together metadata and research on administrative sources in one report
  • Knowledge of administrative sources fed back to teams quality assuring 2011 Census
  • Helped inform future population estimates methods (e.g. school boarders)
  • Evidence that small number of LAs may have had undercount of 0 & 1 year olds at 2001 Census
  • Ranges may be used in quality assuring estimates in future