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Emissions Trading Workshop: Enterprise Perspectives and Policies for Energy Efficiency Services

This workshop delves into the enterprise perspective on emissions trading, energy efficiency services, fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions in the context of policy and politics. Discussions on long-term carbon price formulation, technology development curve, and the theoretical price evolution response will be explored. Various viewpoints on the European Union's electricity supply industry, carbon market status, and the need for regulatory adjustments will be highlighted. The session aims to address the challenges and opportunities in the energy sector, considering climate policies, mobility, heating/cooling, electrical/ICT advancements, and market dynamics.

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Emissions Trading Workshop: Enterprise Perspectives and Policies for Energy Efficiency Services

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  1. UCD Emissions Trading Workshop “Enterprise Perspective” 25th April 2012

  2. Policy And Politics Energy Efficiency Services* Useful Energy Fossil Fuels CO2 Climate RES Nuclear Everything Else Energy Policy (mainly National) Climate Policy (mainly EU) * Mobility, Heating/Cooling, Electrical/ICT etc.

  3. Long-term Carbon Price Formulation Slow energy efficiency uptake Early RES, nuclear build Higher 2020/30 cap “PRIMES” output: Assumes global CO2 market link € Delayed CCS build Higher GDP growth More rapid technology Development curve Regulatory risk Theoretical price evolution response (closed system)……….

  4. Background • Views are primarily ESI (~70% of ETS) • Enterprise does not have common view • Traders vs. compliance operators vs. exposed sectors • EU Electricity Supply Industry • Accepts science • Committed (2009) to decarbonisation by 2050 (ESB 2035) • Promoted ET concept to EU policy-makers (vs. tax) • Informal Environment Council (17th April) • Carbon market is bust, needs to be fixed

  5. A Broken Market? • ETS basic concept: • Binding cap to reduce emissions; • Cost efficiency through trading within cap • Discovered carbon price informs operational and investment decisions • Divergent views on current low price • By Country, by sector, by company strategy • But… cap not breached, price reflects the supply (fixed cap): demand balance • And.… future investments not determined by price alone (trajectory to zero, extreme penalties) • However…. Cion responded to political pressure • Something will be done (by December 2012)!!!

  6. Recession Reduction Target (Mt) @ marginal price of €x/t x x1 €/t 0 Post Pre Recession Quantum to be Abated (Mt)

  7. Policy coherence (lack of …) Reduction Target (Mt) @ marginal price of €x/t x €/t 0 Reduction Target (Mt) @ marginal price of €x/t Quantum Abated (Mt)

  8. Policy coherence (lack of …) Reduction Target (Mt) @ marginal price of €x/t x x2 €/t 0 Reduction Target (Mt) @ marginal price of €x/t Quantum Abated (Mt)

  9. Regulatory interference – future shock? Real Crisis ETS Cap EUA Price Reality? “Set-aside” adjustment Model projections €/t Crisis Supply Demand balance (Mt CO2) Equilibrium point 0 Historic Current Future Time

  10. Beyond 2020 … • Principles • Recognise science • Least cost • Coherent system approach to energy transformation • Policy approach • Instrument coherence – single “driver” for decarbonisation • Well-functioning markets • Early agreement on 2030 targets • Outcomes • Internal Energy Market + ETS drives decarbonisation and innovation? • Mandatory RES share (40%+ in 2030) undermines IEM and collapses ETS?

  11. Decarbonised Electricity for a Decarbonised Economy: Can everything be connected…. Adaptation Impacts v-RES CCS Nuclear… Demand Storage Cycling… Networks Meters ICT… Energy Carbon Services… Available Affordable …. Climate Change Mitigation New Techn- ologies Flexible Systems Smart Grids Market Design “Invest- ability” Science Policy Acceptability RD&D Plant Conflicts RD&D RD&D Interconn- ection Integration Utilities v. others Europe v. RoW

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