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Thailand Roundtable Series: Threats and Opportunities for Asian Economies

Thailand Roundtable Series: Threats and Opportunities for Asian Economies. November 7, 2013. Global economy is expected to grow moderately during 2013 - 2014 . I mproved global economic indicators, but downside risks remain across advanced, emerging market, and developing economies.

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Thailand Roundtable Series: Threats and Opportunities for Asian Economies

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  1. Thailand Roundtable Series:Threats and Opportunities for Asian Economies

    November 7, 2013
  2. Global economy is expected to grow moderately during 2013 - 2014 Improved global economic indicators, but downside risks remain across advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) References: Asian Development Bank (ADB) & International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  3. Asian economies face challenges in building future growth momentum Continued economic growth with the need of policies to guard against downside risks. Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) References: Asian Development Bank (ADB) & International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  4. Recovery signals of G-3 induce capital flow fluctuation across the globe Global financial market adjustments continue and financial stability risks are in transition. References: International Monetary Fund (IMF) & Various Research Houses (e.g. Deloitte, KBANK, SCB)
  5. China and SEA are the main destinations of FDI in this region, although FDI to China expected to decline, in the coming years. References: Economic Intelligent Unit & Country Forecast Reports
  6. South East Asia: the region for growth and opportunity Sources: Asian Development Bank, Economic Intelligent Unit (EIU), & International Monetary Fund (IMF) Note: 2011-2012 Actual Data from Asian Development Bank, 2013 – 2018 from EIU & IMF
  7. Thailand is among moderate growth economies compared to others Real GDP Growth Rate of ASEAN Economies from 2009 – 2017F Growth Rate (%) Lao PDR Cambodia Myanmar Viet Nam Singapore Thailand Severe Flooding Political Unrest Average real GDP growth of Thailand is forecasted to be around 5.1% over 2014-2018. Thai Government is proposing the logistics infrastructure development plan with the budget amount of 2.2 trillion Baht over 7 year period. It is forecasted that Thailand will become regional logistic hub, but also improve competitive edges and productivity. Sources: Asian Development Bank (ADB), Economic Intelligent Unit, & International Monetary Fund (IMF) & Country Economic Reports
  8. CLMV - opportunities for investment and growth in the coming years. Urbanization* Real GDP Growth Rate from 2009 – 2017F Per Capita Income* Growth Rate (%) CLMV’s long-term growths maintain above 6% due to FDI, domestic consumption, & infrastructure investment (USD PPP) Economic Sector Contribution to GDP* Population from 2009 - 2017F Population (Million) CAGR 1.3% 182.7 180.3 178.0 175.6 173.4 171.1 169.1 167.3 165.3 Contribution (%) Key Challenges: CLMV economic structural change and national policies to become upper-middle income countries (per capital income > 4,000$/Year) over the long-term. Sources: ADB, Economic Intelligent Unit, IMF, & World Bank * Note: 2012 actual data
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