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GAINESVILLE HALL COUNTY Comprehensive Plan Update. Land Demand & Development Capacity May 28, 2003. Tonight we will Discuss:. Where we are in the Planning Process Why we do a Demand and Capacity Analysis The method and results of the Demand Analysis
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GAINESVILLE HALL COUNTYComprehensive Plan Update Land Demand & Development Capacity May 28, 2003
Tonight we will Discuss: • Where we are in the Planning Process • Why we do a Demand and Capacity Analysis • The method and results of the Demand Analysis • The method and results of the Capacity Analysis • Comparison of the Demand to Capacity • What this means for the City/County
Project Initiation Land Demand Analysis Inventories Vision and Policy Development Plan Development Implementation Strategy Public Outreach Land Capacity Analysis Where are we in this process?
Why do a Demand & Capacity Analysis • Identify potential future growth pressures • Identify the current capacity of the City/County to deal with potential growth • To create a baseline for “what if” scenarios • To establish a foundation for the discussion of policy questions • How should we prepare for the future?
Caution: These analyses and forecasts represent what could happen if current trends continue and current policies are implemented. They do not reflect a value judgment as to whether they are desirable or not.
What Have We Heard? Five Consensus Planning Themes: • Quality Growth • Efficient Growth • Fiscally Sound Growth • Urban and Rural Growth • Coordinated Growth
Five Attributes of Growth • Location of Growth • Amount of Growth • Rate and Timing of Growth • Fiscal Impact of Growth • Quality and Environmental Impact of Growth
The Demand Analysis Bill Ross
Demand AnalysisMethodology • Population and employment forecasts • Translate population into dwelling units in different categories • Translate employment into land use categories • Translate employment into square footage and acreage
Forecasts • Past trends – we looked back: • Thirty years (1970-2000) • Recent past (the 1990s) • Natural growth process affected by: • Market response to land availability • Infrastructure constraints • Redevelopment, communication diversity • Technological innovation
Forecasts • Assumptions • Past trends represent a valid anticipation of future change in Hall County and its cities. • Those past trends will continue with few changes in the market forces that created them. • Factors that would otherwise limit growth naturally will not begin to affect growth until the latter portion of the 2030 forecast horizon.
Forecasts Hall County 2003—2030 Population 162,372—489,366 Employment 95,605—280,792
Gainesville 2003—2030 Population 29,662—87,309 Employment 51,924—92,088 Forecasts
The Capacity Analysis Greg Dale
Capacity Analysis Methodology • Identify available land (Gross Land) • Identify constraints to land (Net Land) • Identify Potential Development Areas (PDAs) • Assign Development Density • Calculate Residential Unit and Nonresidential Building Area Capacity
How much land is available? • Assumptions • Vacant Parcels in City • Most land zoned for agriculture in the County • Conservation land, in floodplains or stream buffers is not available • Certain small fragments of land are not included • Only includes land in Gainesville and unincorporated Hall County
Net Land • Assumptions • The way steep slope reduces the capacity of land varies • 15 % of Gross Land is needed for infrastructure
Residential Capacity Assumptions • Calculated for areas currently designated for residential development • Guided by existing Comprehensive Plan, adopted land use density and Zoning Regulations • Different between City and County • High and low scenario • 108,109 Net Acres for Residential
Net Residential Acreage Hall County –104,760 acres Gainesville- 3,079 acres
Residential Unit Capacity (Adjusted) 72,922-131,707 Total Units
Nonresidential CapacityAssumptions • Density based on established “floor area ratios” • Capacity calculated for • Office • Commercial/Retail • Industrial • 13,322 net acres of nonresidential land
Net Nonresidential Acreage Commercial/Retail-918 acres Office- 3,281 acres Industrial-9,122 acres
Nonresidential Building Area Capacity (Adjusted) 130-157 million SF total nonresidential
Residential Demand vs. Capacity Single Family New Units
Implications ofDemand and Capacity • There is potential market pressure to “build out” most of Hall County under the current planning policies within the planning horizon • This means that we need to be thinking about the “end state” for the City and County • In some ways, this makes the planning simpler – we are not planning for a portion of the county, only to be revisited again and again
Implications ofDemand and Capacity • We should assume that the future pattern of land uses, intensities, densities, and character proposed in this plan is the final pattern • We can identify this final pattern relative to the final level of infrastructure needed to support it • Once we establish the final state, then we address how to get there in the most orderly and efficient way, which includes rate of growth issues, the relationship of land use to infrastructure, the allocation of costs of the infrastructure
Next Month: • Examine the demand and capacity further • Where do we have capacity? • Is it in the right places, both from a market perspective, and from a land use perspective? • How does the capacity of different types of residential land use compare to demand?
Next Month: • Is the “end state” suggested by current policies what the community wants to be in 15-30 years? • What are the policy implications for the Comprehensive Plan?