Personal Preparation

1. Personal Preparation • Read the wall policies DO • Personal fitness under way again • 72-hour kit? I am working on mine again. • Choices about where and how to live <Are you willing to vote for taxes to pay for codes, better buildings, better public safety services?> • Slippers under the bed DONE> • Situational awareness – water storage tank plan • Complement (not compliment) or replace local authority • Phone ‘apps’ vs other ‘word of mouth’ yes, reluctantly Is that a confusing picture in a real world? <yes>

2. Make gradual transition from quakes and wavesto vulcanismWhich one is the real source of trouble for humans, magma/volcunism or quaking?

3. Tsunami Animation Tsunami

4. The role of lectures: • Comment on the book • Evaluate learning • Verify completion of college credit • Learning is the goal – teachers are not the ‘learners’ - - students are. • Scholarship is about support ($), reputation, and development of career capability, even if no one ever asks your GPA Reading the book is vital.

5. History Channel (Thursday) indicated a potential warning time of up to two minutesHowever, consider that the longer your warning time, the less you will need it. Those who need it the most will tend to have the shortest possible warning time.

6. Wave Types • Oscillation – wind-driven (or minor disturbances) no net movement of water • Translation – mass movement of water (quake, asteroid) • Tidal – ‘bore tide’ • Seiche – alternate term for earth movement that pushes water, such as Lake Geneva, Lake Como, Hebgen Lake (quake lake), and , North Sea (and Netherlands) • Amplitude, wave length (period), trough, crest, run-up, swash • Waves of translation (and bores) do not always recede – some never, and others too late to fit our need for survival.

7. Tsunami – “harbor wave” 2004 – 9.1 Sumatran quake – largest on Earth in 40 years Water wave as secondary factor? 305,000 dead Direct quake deaths? Alaskan quake of 1964 – about 100 dead Chilean quake of 1960 – a few thousand dead Fukushima, Japan quake of 2011 – 25,000 dead How well correlated are similar magnitudes to casualties?

8. Why would sensors be more established in the Pacific basin? • Historical pattern of quakes • Money, influence, science • Water as a connector – transmitter of energy Sensors: sea floor – shaking/displacement Surface bouys – compare change in oscillations GPS between established points

9. Notice that the book uses ‘seismic waves’ to describe ‘shock’ wave as well Tsunami wave Tsunami wave Earth movement Fault Earth movement

10. As tsunami waves ‘stumble’ on the shoreline:Wave Length Converts to Amplitude 450 mph (500?) slows to 40 mph Wave length of 60-100 miles converts to a few miles or less Amplitude increases from a few inches to many feet

11. How difficult might it be to create a “run-up” map and public safety procedures for alerts?A good ePort might look at phone apps and Web search for ‘run up’ map availability for coastal communities.How excited might the Chamber of Commerce be to advertise run-up maps? <Jaws Mayor – “Ok so we had someone eaten by a shark.”

12. Convert Miles Per Second to Miles Per Hour Miles per second x 60 = miles per minute Miles per minute x 60 = miles per hour P wave: 3.7 mps = 3,600 x 3.7 = 13,320 mph S wave: 1.9 mps = 60 x 60 x 1.9 = 6,840 mph History Channel said P waves travel at 15,000 mph. It’s OK either way.

13. Shock wave in rock or dirt • Compared to ‘surface’ wave in water • P waves – compression compared to S that fails in fluids • History Channel interviewees sometimes did not distinguish between forecast and prediction • History Channel contradicted the textbook by saying that S waves (secondary) with their lateral motions, are the ones that turn into S (surface waves) - - not Primary waves. • By definition, P and S waves cause no damage because they are not where people and buildings are. When they arrive, they become something else (surface waves)

14. Questions: Is a P-wave based signal a type of “prediction”, even though the quake is already under way? <yes>Is it true that the more you might benefit from a P-wave warning, the less time you will get? <yes, why?>

15. Compare Magnitudes: Fukushima and Sumatra quakes = 9.1M to 9.0M (est.)and Chilean 9.5M • ‘back’ side of ‘Ring of Fire’ • Burmese microplate moved 65 feet along 900+ miles – compare to SL area faults (not subductions) • No sensors • No warning devices • (compare to California – 2013, sensors on land, • but lacking funds for implementation) • What is a ‘megathrust’?

16. Effective warning requires:1. Instrument detection2. Calculate Magnitude3. Determine type of movement4. Determine potential targets & local vulnerabilities5. Warning delivery: - from measuring station - to ‘street level’6. All done in time for people to react usefullyMuch has been automated, but gaps remain.

17. Local Conditions • Shoreline, steepness, stability, angle, vegetation • Population concentration and readiness • Time of day, season, weather • Infrastructure – buildings (codes), transportation, technical resources and social organization • Response capability – run-up maps • Community wealth and technology • Crowding during evacuation is a common experience In the Fukushima area, a small town mayor was holding a meeting on emergency preparation and ended up on a flag pole

18. Concentration of energy into narrow beach Rocky band along escape route -- stream flow backing up somewhere upstream Narrow stairs -- crowded stairs. Where are your kids and your flip-flops? Difficult ascent through terrain and vegetation Warning time and method? <siren in the wind or during a party> Tidal condition? Darkness? Inland may actually be lower ground in some places Allred’s Rule? P 117 – some people evacuated to mountain tops thousands of feet above sea level – others went down to the beach to watch. www.myrvstuff.com

19. How to View Evacuation Routes Allred’s rule for situational awareness • What are local hazards and history? • What about RVs and chatterboxes in the way? • What are local rules and resources? • How well prepared am I to move (flip-flops and kids too) • For tsunami wave, some combination of: • One mile inland • 100 feet above sea level

20. Types of Warnings • Animal behavior (including elephants) • School girl observation of ocean retreat • Scientist observation of beach rising • Tarot cards? • Change in gases, fluids, precursor quakes, landslides • Science generally requires corroboration and replicability. • Which of the above might meet tests of science?

21. Volcano activity can be a precursor to a quake, but quakes are almost certainly precursors to volcanic eruptions

22. Volcanoes, uplifts and Trenches Volcano or high mountain Ocean trench sediments Subduction zone Slab pull downward re-melts to feed the volcano

23. Ring of Fire – Ring of Volcanoes Evaluate these three statements 2. More than 500,000 people live under active threat of vulcanism? Volcanoes don’t kill people? <Ring of Buildings> 3. About 75% of all volcanoes are on the Ring of Fire? Hawaiian hotspot track shift.

24. Natural Service Functions New land area New soil-forming & commercial minerals New land area above sea level Scenic beauty What’s the difference between: Geothermal energy - Milgro Nurseries; and, Geo-exchange - Murray High School?

25. What’s the difference between a sand blow and a volcano?

26. Vulcanism – magma reaching near the surface along major transitions between world-class tectonic plates, and at hot-spotsAt most locations, what substance creates the transition between magma and the surface? <12>How many are there in Utah? <1,500>

27. Energy WavesSeismic wavesSound wavesElectromagnetic wavesFluid waves (water)

28. Average distance from hypocenter or focus to epicenter (surface)10 milesHow long will the shock wave (P) reaches the nearest possible seismograph?

29. Difference between surface rupture and hypocenter may be substantial SLCC Redwood campus Notice the lack of magma chambers. What is the transition substance between magma and the surface? <water> How does that differ from geo-exchange? How many of each are there in SL area?

30. At two minutes of warning, how far away are you likely to be from the epicenter, or hypocenter?

31. History Channel also used ‘prediction’ and ‘forecast’ interchangeably.Does the weathercast?Do you?

32. Also, page 67 discusses the wise man who build his house upon the rock . . . or was it sand, or was it clay?What is the problem with clay?(Loma Prieta and Nimitz freeway, 1989)

33. Slow quakesCalculate how much inadequate creep would lead to a recurrence interval of 30 years for mega-quakes that release M8.0 or greater energy?<Hint: recent mega-quakes have shown earth movements of 10-60 feet, laterally and/or vertically>

34. Assume 10 feet of mega-movement every 30 years:1/3 foot (four inches) per year of inadequate ‘slow quake’ or creep per year.So, a one-to four inch annual creep along a major plate boundary perhaps ought to be more like four-eight inches per year to prevent mega-quake build-up.

35. As such, four or more inches of movement per year would, at the least, mean major quakes annually at many “Ring of Fire” locations.Perhaps we should stop trying so hard to predict quakes, and simply prepare for them.

36. Reverse the concept that modern life is turning hazards into disasters and disasters into catastrophes:instead, by making hard choices to fund better infrastructure and building practices, we turn catastrophes back into merely ‘cracks in the sidewalk.’

37. The reality is, we want pizza and beer on a Friday night.Building codes are just too expensive for now. Do it later.

38. Water WavesOscillation – WindTranslation - Seiche, TsunamiBore - Spring, Neap

39. Notice pictures on page 102: Many areas remained inundated – water did not go back out because the land submerged or washed away.Otherwise, community ‘run-up’ maps are helpful. Few communities have them and fewer want to advertise them.

40. Cannon Beach, OregonFeatured on History Channel.

41. History Channel estimated 20 minutes to tsunami arrival – what was our estimate in class? <20-25>

42. Evacuation routes – problematic? Futuresolution:New city hall with 1,000 person capacity, flow-through main floor, and emergency supply storage.

43. Problems:1. Emphasis on future (someday)2. Narrow staircases on two sides.3. Too many people in town.Better solution:1. Personal fitness2. Situational awareness – adapt to conditions to reach higher ground3. Promote and use alert systems.

44. Are we Prepared?10% ordinances up-to-date30% ordinances enforced15% buildings retrofitted or new80% implemented properly0.1 x 0.3 x 0.15 x 0.8 = ?<0.0036 or 1/3 of one percent>

45. Wasatch Front MountainsEast side Wasatch – igneous ‘fire rock’ mixed with old sedimentaryWest side Oquirrhs – sedimentary uplift infused with igneous intrusions

46. Lava beds in southern Idaho Geothermal heat on west side of Utah Volcanoes and cinder cones old sediments (sandstone) with fossil fuels – oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand Lava beds in southern Utah

47. Wasatch Plateau – south toward St. George- sedimentary with fossil fuels- 12,000 foot tall volcanoes and small cinder conesfurther south

48. Lava beds at south and north ends of Utah(with Yellowstone ‘hot spot’ and caldera ‘scar’ running across Idaho)Old sediments dominate eastern Utah, with fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas, shale, tar sand)