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Commodity Market Update 2013 Thumb Ag Day Ubly , MI. Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University December 11, 2013. Dec 2013 Corn Futures. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand. U.S. Meat Production and Prices. U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds.

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commodity market update 2013 thumb ag day ubly mi

Commodity Market Update2013 Thumb Ag DayUbly, MI

Jim Hilker

Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department

Michigan State University

December 11, 2013

slide16

Ethanol Producer Net Returns* Above Variable Costs / Spot prices

+ 99 cents / gal. (12/6/13)

Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.

* Net returns do not include adjustments for corn oil extraction.

December 10, 2013

slide17

Ethanol and RBOB Futures Prices

Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB)

Ethanol

$.73

12/06/13

Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME futures.

December 10, 2013

slide18

Average Daily U.S. Ethanol Production

Oct-Nov projected from weekly EIA data

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration.

December 10, 2013

slide19

Weekly Ethanol Stocks

Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

December 10, 2013

world corn production
World Corn Production

December 10, 2013

world corn supply and use
World Corn Supply and Use

December 10, 2013

slide23

Brazil 2013/14 Corn SummaryNovember 2013

*Record large.

November 8, 2013

slide24

Highest yields are in the Central District.

About two-thirds of the planted area is in the Southern and North Caucasus Districts.

November 8, 2013

Source: State Statistical Committee of Russia (Rosstat), average production 2005-2010

slide25

Russia

Volga District

Central District

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Southern District

The VHI likely is depicting the ribbon of high heat just north of the primary corn areas as poor, while the main corn areas are good to excellent.

North Caucasus

Corn Areas

November 8, 2013

world wheat production
World Wheat Production

December 10, 2013

canada wheat production
Canada Wheat Production

November 8, 2013

slide56

Canadian Prairies

2013 Growing Season Highlights

2

1

Mild for

Reproduction

Warm for

Maturation

Favorable temperature patterns at critical growth stages

Beneficial moisture throughout season, aided by late snow melt

3

4

1-3 weeks

late

Excellent vegetative health at key points in growth cycle

Late autumn freeze / overall good harvest weather

November 8, 2013

slide57

Vegetation Health Index

(change from Sep 9 to Oct 28)

Oct 28

  • In Western Australia, soaking rains and warm weather were ideal for reproductive to filling wheat .
  • In southeastern Australia, passing showers maintained good to excellent crop prospects.
  • In northern NSW & QLD, persistent heat & dryness hastened winter wheat maturation & harvesting.

3

1

2

Sep 9

3

1

2

December 10, 2013

world soybean production
World Soybean Production

December 10, 2013

thanks questions discussion
ThanksQuestions/Discussion

Jim Hilker’s Web Page

http://www.msu.edu/user/hilker/

slide92

MSU is an affirmative-action, equal-opportunity employer. Michigan State University Extension programs and materials are open to all without regard to race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, religion, age, height, weight, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, marital status, family status or veteran status.