Serhat Sensoy, Chief of Climatology Division, TSMS, Ankara, Turkey

1. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Water Resources in and around Turkey Serhat Sensoy, Chief of Climatology Division, TSMS, Ankara, Turkey Osman Simsek,Head of AgM&O Department, TSMS, Ankara, Turkey Gultekin Yalcin, Director, Climatology Division, TSMS, Ankara, Turkey Yusuf Ulupinar, Enginner in Hydromet. Division TSMS, Ankara, Turkey Mesut Demircan, Enginner in Climatology Division TSMS, Ankara, Turkey Izzet Balta, Enginner in Climatology Division TSMS, Ankara, Turkey Gulay P. Mengu Assoc. Prof. Ege U., Agricultural Faculty, Izmir, Turkey

2. Presentation Plan The climate system Observed changes in climate Future projections Climate change impacts on agriculture Climate change impacts on water resources Agriculturally related climate indices TSMS agricultural products Conclusion

3. Climate system is comprised by the complicated interactions among the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere, the surface lithosphereand the biosphere. Energy from the sun heats the earth’s surface; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into space. The greenhouse effect is a necessary phenomenon. Without it, Earth temperature would be -18°C. But the Greenhouse gases trap some of the outgoing energy and maintain Earth’s temperature 15°C. However, too many GHG could increase in mean temperatures Radiative flux balance

4. Climate change: In addition to the observed natural climate variability; it is a change in climate due to anthropogenic contribution to the atmosphere (UNFCCC). Technically climate changes , usually characterized by a shift in means. Small changes in the mean can cause a large change in the likelihood of extreme event. The pre industrial levels of CO2 approximately 280 ppm would then double by the end of the next century.

5. OBSERVED CHANGES IN CLIMATE • Global average temperatures increased (0.7°C) • Precipitation increased in high latitudes (likely to be 0.5 to 1%/inches) •  Global mean sea-level has risen (1.0 to 2.0 mm/yr) •  Arctic sea-ice thickness declined  Water vapor increased over N. Hemisphere •  Total ozone losses above the Arctic • ENSO has been unusual since the mid-1970s; 5/27

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7. IPCC 4th ASSESMENT_TEMPERATURE PROJECTION Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century. If the PDF is widespread, it means that too many extreme event could be occurred. 7/29

8. IPCC 4th ASSESMENT_PRECIPITATION PROJECTION Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Multi model projections show increasing precipitation in the north latitude but decreasing in the Mediterranean. Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change 8/29

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10. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT Climate change will be impact on agriculture and water resources by affecting crop yield and irrigation demand. 10/29

11. There will be some benefits and drawbacks of the climate change on agriculture. 11/29

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13. Increased temperature effect on cereal yield 13/29

14. Increased CO2 concentration will be increase wheat yield because of the enhanced CO2 assimilation (Danish Institute). 14/29

15. Only developed countries could be convert negative climate effect to positive with their adaptation capacity. Developing countries and world total only could be mitigating.

16. In Turkey, there are 26 river basins in terms of hydrology. 17 of the rivers have no water stress problems in terms of total water potential, but the Meriç, Ergene, Sakarya and Kızılırmak basins are experiencing chronic water stress, and the Küçük Menderes basin is close to the absolute water stress level (Onder and Onder, 2007). 16/29

17. Climate Indices RClimDex produced by Xuebin Zhang from Met. Service of Canada http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/ prec. p. 17/27

18. Growing Season Length has increasing over Turkey except for coastal regions. This will be have a positive effect on summer agricultural products but some negative affects will be experienced by orchards which they need chilling requirement. 18/27

19. Numbers of Frost Days have been increasing mainly in Black Sea and Marmara Region. 53 stations have decreasing trend while 32 are increasing. Average decreasing is 28 days in 100 years.

20. Middle East Climate Indices Warm days and warm nights are increasing Over Mediterranean www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2005JD006181.shtml

21. Temporal and spatial temperature and precipitation anomalies in 2009

22. AgroMeteorology Harvest Time Estimates The “Harvest Time Estimates” prepared in order to find the cumulative temperature degree, that the plants need for growing and developing, and to guess the harvest time by using these merits and to determine the appropriate planting areas of culture plants in our country, is announced through our web site. The type and the kind of the plant, and the starting time is entered by the user. The minimum, maximum and the total temperature degrees are taken from the database. When you click the “show” button, you see the result as “The harvest time for ……….plant you have chosen is ………..” by calculating the day meeting total temperature requirement of the seed.

23. Blooming Bearing Maturing AgroMeteorology Phenology Atlas

24. AgroMeteorology Productivity Estimate Product Tracing and Productivity Estimate The project has been financed by the FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization) and realized collectively by TSMS, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, TAGEM (General Directorate for Agricultural Research), TİGEM (General Directorate of Agricultural Operations) and TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute) . The product productivity estimates are done by using meteorological data and the Agro meteorological simulation model (AgroMetShellv 1.5) improved by FAO. The results are announced in our web site as average merits of cities. Estimated Wheat Crop Yield for the year 2007 (Calculated for every year)

25. AgroMeteorology Frost Risk Maps Agriculrural Frost Risk Maps are prepared and published on web page for 4 days and are updated every day.

26. Extreme Events Assessments N.of extreme events have been increased in around 1960’s, 1980’s and 2000’s. The year 2009 has been took place 1st rank with 461 occurred extreme events. In Turkey most frequent and hazardous extreme event are storm, floods and hails. Although occurred very rarely, sandstorm, mud rain, fog, landslide, tornado and avalanche also observed.

27. http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/ TSMS is delivering climate monitoring and seasonal forecast products to the Eastern Mediterranean countries through web site as a contrıbutıon to the RA VI Pılot RCC Network. These climate prediction and information services contribute to enhanced social and economic resilience and decision making in many climate-sensitive sectors such as water, agriculture, fisheries, health, forestry, transport, tourism, energy and disaster risk management in the region 27/22

28. Conclusion • Climate change is already happening and will be impact on agriculture and water sector. There will be some benefits and drawbacks. • Model projections show increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in the Mediterranean. • Frequency and severity of extreme events such as heat wave, flooding and drought will be increased in the region. • In the Mediterranean where water will become a limiting factor, productivity could potentially be reduced due to the added stress of heat and salinization. • According to the three GCM scenarios, only developed countries could be convert negative climate effect to positive with their adaptation capacity. Developing countries only could be mitigating. • Trends in climate indices shows large coherent patterns of warming, decreasing precipitation but increasing extreme event in the Mediterranean. 28/29

29. Thanks for your Attention Serhat Sensoy, Osman Simsek, Gultekin Yalcin, Yusuf Ulupinar, Mesut Demircan, Izzet Balta, Turkish State Meteorological Service, Ankara, Turkey Gulay P. Mengu Assoc. Prof. Ege U., Agricultural Faculty, Izmir, Turkey 29/29