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General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025. Agenda. Background Historic National Trends Forecast Overview DC Area Trends and Forecast. Background. What do we forecast? Airline traffic and capacity General Aviation activity Aircraft operations

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Presentation Transcript
agenda
Agenda
  • Background
  • Historic National Trends
  • Forecast Overview
  • DC Area Trends and Forecast
background
Background
  • What do we forecast?
      • Airline traffic and capacity
      • General Aviation activity
      • Aircraft operations
      • Done at both national and individual airport level
  • What are the forecasts used for?
      • Facility Planning
      • ATC Staffing
      • Regulatory analysis
      • FAA Budgets
      • Investment Analysis
      • Baseline Comparisons for Airport Master Plans
general aviation trends 2000 07
General Aviation Trends 2000-07
  • Modest growth in fleet and hours
    • Total fleet growth of 6.4% (13,500 A/C)
      • Turbo Jet A/C up 41% to 11,000; Piston A/C flat
    • Hours up 3.1%
      • Turbo Jets 66% higher; Pistons (including rotorcraft) down 13.3%
  • Activity down
    • Ops at FAA and Contract Towers down 16.9%
    • Instrument Ops down 19.5%
    • En Route A/C Handled down 5.1%
  • Sales and Deliveries growing since 2003
    • Jet sales up 83%; piston sales up 62%
    • Jet deliveries up 112%; piston deliveries up 37%
ga forecast overview 2008 25
GA Forecast Overview 2008-25
  • Growth in high end of market
    • Total fleet is 27% higher by 2025 (61,000 increase)
      • Piston A/C (including rotorcraft) up 15,000 (0.5% per year)
      • Turbo Jet A/C up 18,500 (5.6% per year)
        • Biz Jets increase by 10,500 (3.8% per year)
        • VLJs total 8,145 by 2025
    • Hours are 70% higher in 2025 (3% per year)
      • Turbo Jets grow 7.6% per year
      • Pistons (including rotorcraft) grow 1.1% per year
    • Operations growth reflects hours growth
      • Tower operations increase 26% by 2025 (1.3% per year)
      • En Route aircraft handled up 68% (3% per year)
general aviation fleet
General Aviation Fleet

Actual

Forecast

2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth

Piston: 0.5%

Turbine: 3.7%

Exp, LSA, Oth: 3.0%

general aviation flight hours
General Aviation Flight Hours

Actual

Forecast

2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth

Piston: 1.1%

Exp, LSA, Oth: 4.1%

Non VLJ Turbine: 2.8%

VLJs: 28.4%

tower operations
Tower Operations

Actual

Forecast

2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth

Commercial: 2.7%

Gen Aviation: 1.3%

Military: 0.0%

dc general aviation trends 2000 07
DC General Aviation Trends 2000-07
  • Activity down overall
    • GA operations down 12.2%; slightly more than total ops
      • Largest declines at DCA, HEF, and MTN
      • Itinerant down 30% while local up 7.7%
  • Biz Jet Activity up 7.5%; peaked in 2005
    • IAD up 112%; DCA down 95%
    • Share of GA activity increased from 8.6% to 10.5%
    • DCA had most activity in 2000 (40% of total); IAD in 2007 (65.8% of total)
dc area tower forecast 2008 25
DC Area Tower Forecast 2008-25
  • Activity up 42% by 2025 (2% annual growth)
    • Slightly higher than national growth
      • Commercial growth 2.4% per year
      • GA growth of 1.5% per year
      • Exceed 2000 peak in 2014
dc area tower operations15
DC Area Tower Operations

Actual

Forecast

2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth

Commercial: 2.4%

General Aviation: 1.5%

Military: 0.0%

things to look for
Things to look for
  • Congestion – will it be as bad as in 2007?
  • Environmental concerns will continue to be in the forefront of aviation debates.
  • Strength of demand given high oil prices and a slowing economy.
  • Success of on-demand air taxi operators and use of VLJs.