Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics

1. Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Professor William Greene

2. Economic Foundations for Entertainmentand Media Value, Windowing and Revenue Streams

3. 2010: Notice Trend in Revenue Source of Revenue Careful! This is 6, not 0. DVD data: http://www.edwardjayepstein.com/mpa2004.htm

4. Indie Box Office Revenues Benedetta Lucini, “Analyzing the ROI of Independently Financed Films,” Stern SoB, MBA, 2010.

5. Film Studio Revenues: 2004, 2008, 2009 The share of theatrical rose from 2004 to 2008, from 20% to 25%. This is consumer spending. Half of the revenue went to exhibitors. 2004: Judson Coplan: “Diagnosing the DVD Disappointment: A Life Cycle View.” 2008: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124301477914747859.html

6. 2012 Studio Revenue Sources

7. We need to distinguish between revenue and profit.TV appears to be the main profit center.But, the figures allocate the entire production cost to theatrical. This is grossly misleading Studio Revenue vs. Profits http://www.edwardjayepstein.com/TVnumbers.htm

8. The studios are embedded in larger conglomerate corporations. How should studio “profits” be allocated?

9. Capturing Value – Films and MoreThe movie is rarely a one off project. • Multiple release windows • A form of price discrimination • Market segmentation • (Can this be applied to the music business?) • The movie as product line • What is the source of “value” generated by a movie? • Successful strategies • Movie as part of a product line • Batman: print media, movies, home video, domestic TV, foreign TV, licensing and merchandise, Broadway show • Harry Potter: Books  movies  infinite line of products • Taylor Swift: Concerts, televised specials, movie(s?), lunch boxes, etc.

10. Best Selling Movie By YearEvery one is a franchise or sequel

11. Batman Franchise Includes Movies This does not include licensed merchandise.

13. Fast and Furious Movie Franchise

14. Movie as Franchise: Capturing All the Value Out to the Margin • Movie  Licensed Merchandise • The Mummy Returns  “Action Figure” + toys + Happy Meal + … • Product  Movie • Pirates of the Caribbean Disney Ride  Movie (2003)  Movie (2006)  Movie (2007)  Movie (2011) … • Movie  Movie: • “When Warner Bros. released “The Matrix,” the studio feared the movie would baffle audiences and bomb. Now it’s hard to think of projects more eagerly anticipated than parts two and three.” (TIME, 4/22/02. Part Three bombed in 2003) • Sequels are among the most successful: Iron Man, etc., Harry Potter • Movie and Movie and Movie … • Fast and Furious. Is this a sequel? • James Bond, Jason Bourne • Shreck • Cartoons • Not a sequence: Defiance video game and Syfy TV series (2013)

15. Movie as Advertising Platform

16. Movie Release Windows • First run theatrical: Domestic  International • Home video: Domestic  International • Cable: Domestic  International • U.S. network TV • U.S. syndication TV • Foreign syndication TV THE LORD OF THE RINGS …Peter Jackson made three films at once and then sold them all to the same fans again and again and again. The theatrical releases, in consecutive years, turned out to be teasers for the DVD release. (A.O.Scott, NYT Magazine,.)

17. Market Segmentation?What is the strategy?What is the objective?

18. Fame is Fleeting • Shortened Movie Runs – Why? • Demand driven – short lived demand • Supply effects – studio strategy • Implications for Production • Implications for Profits and Revenues • Costs and Benefits for Studios and for Exhibitors

19. Dropoff in 2nd Week Revenues of the Number one Movie, by Week • FX2 -30% • What about Bob? +22% • Backdraft -28% • City Slickers -13% • Robin Hood -29% • Naked Gun 2.5 -44% • Terminator 2 -35% • Hot Shots! -26% • The Mummy Returns -50% • Shrek even • Pearl Harbor -50% • Swordfish -30% • Lara Croft -59% • Fast and Furious -50% • A.I. -52% • Cats and Dogs -45% • Legally Blonde -46% • Jurassic Park III -56% • Planet of the Apes -60% Summer 1991 Summer 2001

20. Summer 2006 Source: www.boxofficemojo.com

21. October, 2009

22. The initial run can be misleading LOS ANGELES — In early April, as Lionsgate prepared to release “Kick-Ass,” the movie capital buzzed that the film looked to be a smash hit. Lionsgate had acquired it for just $15 million, and surveys that track audience interest projected a $30 million opening weekend. The movie, directed by Matthew Vaughn, instead opened with $19.8 million, and the chatter, fueled by the blogosphere, abruptly turned negative. Misfire! Bomb! Flop! As it turns out, “Kick-Ass” is living up to its title. The picture, about a teenager who tries to become a superhero, went on to generate about $97 million in ticket sales and is on track to sell over two million copies on DVD and digital download services. Still to come: lucrative sales to TV channels around the world.

23. But, the first run does matter Benedetta Lucini, “Analyzing the ROI of Independently Financed Films,” Stern SoB, MBA, 2010.

24. Book Release Windows

25. Shorter Release Windows

26. Video on Demand Useful Distinctions Streaming vs. Download YouTube Television - Hulu Cable Operators’ Movie Distribution Pricing Advertising model – in stream Subscription model Mobile Video… (Important change. Blurs the distinction)

27. Changed Market – 40% Decline in Home Entertainment Revenue

30. Connecting Consumers: Cinematch Personalized movie recommendor provides Netflix visitors with highly accurate film recommendations based on their individual movie taste history. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/magazine/23Netflix-t.html?hp=&pagewanted=all (11/23/08)

32. Big Data in Music How can companies use these data?

33. Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Movie distributors and book publishers time releases into different windows to exploit different market segments.