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THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS). Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models. MODELING ISSUES. Increasing complexity of problems Increasing need for multidisciplinary approaches Continued advances in science and computer technology

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the modular modeling system mms

THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS)

Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models

modeling issues
MODELING ISSUES
  • Increasing complexity of problems
  • Increasing need for multidisciplinary approaches
  • Continued advances in science and computer technology
  • New data resources
  • No universal models
starting points
STARTING POINTS
  • There are no universal models
  • Models for different purposes require different levels of detail and comprehensiveness
  • Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application
slide4

Modeling Conundrum

  • Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published hypotheses and results
  • Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models are not well designed for incremental improvement by others
tool box modeling views
TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWS
  • Research Model Developer Complex Detail
  • Application Model Developer
  • Model User
  • Resource Manager
  • Policy Maker Condensed Analysis
levels of modular design
LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
  • PROCESS
  • MODEL
  • FULLY COUPLED MODELS
  • LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
  • RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
  • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Single Purpose

Multi-objective, Complex

levels of modular design1
LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
  • PROCESS
  • MODEL
  • FULLY COUPLED MODELS
  • LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
  • RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
  • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
criteria and rules for good module design
CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE DESIGN
  • relate directly to real world components or processes
  • have input and output variables that are measurable values
  • communicate solely via these input and output variables

Modules should

Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16

selected models and modules in mms
USGS

PRMS

DAFLOW

1-D Sediment Transport (beta)

MODFLOW

WEBMOD

WETMOD

OTHER

TOPMODEL

Hydro-17 (NWS snowmelt)

Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) (ARS)

ENNS Model (modified HBV, Austria)

SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN MMS
  • IN DEVELOPMENT
    • PRMS-MODFLOW-DAFLOW-UnsatZone
    • Sacramento Model (NWS)
    • PHREEQC, OTIS, OTEQ, AHM (QW models)
    • RZWQM, RUSLE, SWAT, Generic Crop (ARS Ag models)
levels of modular design2
LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
  • PROCESS
  • MODEL
  • FULLY COUPLED MODELS
  • LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
  • RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
  • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
prms modflow daflow unsaturated zone
PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone

Unsaturated Zone Model

(Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)

Streamflow

levels of modular design3
LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
  • PROCESS
  • MODEL
  • FULLY COUPLED MODELS
  • LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
  • RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
  • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
looseley coupled models

Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Data Management Interface (DMI)

Fish Model

LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS

MMS Model

Off-the-shelf Model

Database

looseley coupled models1

Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Data Management Interface (DMI)

Fish Model

LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS

MMS Model

Off-the-shelf Model

Database

Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

levels of modular design4
LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
  • PROCESS
  • MODEL
  • FULLY COUPLED MODELS
  • LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
  • RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
  • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
slide22

Recreation

Watershed and River Systems Management Program

Municipal & Industrial

Irrigation

Hydropower

Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.

Riparian Habitat

Endangered Species

upper gunnison dss
Upper Gunnison DSS

Hydromet

Real-time climate data feed

Hydrologic

Database

DMI

DMI

RiverWare

Reservoir and River System

Operations Model

DMI

MMI

Object User Interface

Interface for data visualization

and modeling

Modular Modeling System

Physical Process Models

slide27

WARSMP BASINS

CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL

CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL

IN DEVELOPMENT

WARSMP RELATED

IN DEVELOPMENT,MMS PLUS

YAKIMA

SACRAMENTO

TRUCKEE

GUNNISON

SAN JOAQUIN

SAN JUAN

RIO GRANDE

levels of modular design5
LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN
  • PROCESS
  • MODEL
  • FULLY COUPLED MODELS
  • LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS
  • RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
  • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS
analysis and support tools
ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLS

Currently Available

Statistical and Graphical Analyses

Parameter Optimization

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Beta Testing

Shuffle Complex Evolution Optimization

Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM)

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)

Visualization

slide32

DIGITAL DATABASES

(1 km2 resolution)

Vegetation Type (USFS)

Vegetation Density (USFS)

Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)

forecast methodologies
Forecast Methodologies

- Historic data as analog for the future

Point measures (ESP)

Radar data (NEXRAD)

- Synthetic time-series using regional info

- Atmospheric model output

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

current focus issues in mms development and application
CURRENT FOCUS ISSUES IN MMS DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION
  • Coupling of SW and GW Models
  • A Priori Parameter Estimation
  • Incorporation of Remotely Sensed Data
  • Coupling of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Models
  • Improved Hydrologic and Ecosystem Process Simulation
  • Integrated Analysis and Support Tools
prms modflow daflow unsaturated zone1
PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone

Unsaturated Zone Model

(Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)

Streamflow

slide39

A Priori Parameter Estimation

Hydrologic Landscape Units

Selected Basins

slide40

Sleepers River, Vermont

Trout Lake, Wisconsin

Panola Mountain, Georgia

Loch Vale, Colorado

Luquillo, Puerto Rico

USGS

WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM

university of arizona

UNIVERSITY COLLABORATION

University of Arizona

NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA)

NASA funded -- Southwest Regional Earth Science Applications Center -- Integration of remotely sensed data

University of Colorado

NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecasts

integrated system development
INTEGRATED SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS)

  • US Geological Survey
  • Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany
  • US Agricultural Research Service (ARS)
  • US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
u s multi agency memorandum of understanding
Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)

Army Corp of Engineers (COE)

US Geological Survey (USGS)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin (NOAA)

U.S. MULTI-AGENCY MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING

(http://www.iscmem.org)

Facilitates cooperation in R&D of multi-media environmental models, frameworks, and databases for use in human and environmental health risk assessment

  • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
  • Department of Energy (DOE)
  • US Agricultural Research Service (ARS)
  • Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
mms international collaboration
MMS International Collaboration
  • Public Works Research Institute, Japan
  • Korean Water Resources Corp., South Korea
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences, Geography and Natural Resources Institute, Beijing
  • Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany
  • University of Bodenkultur, Vienna, Austria
  • International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna
summary
SUMMARY
  • Toolbox approach to model and system development
  • Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systems
  • Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs
  • Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology
chicken soup for the modeling soul

POINT

Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul

“A fool with a tool is still a fool.”

System Development magazine

precipitation runoff modeling project
PRECIPITATION - RUNOFF MODELING PROJECT

OPEN SHOP

CONSULTATION

COLLABORATION

more information
MORE INFORMATION

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weasel

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmp

http://oms.gpsr.colostate.edu

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/projects/

SW_precip_runoff/papers