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February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma. Stephen J. Rourke. VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING. Restructuring Roundtable. Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast. About ISO New England. Not-for-profit corporation

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slide1
February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma

Stephen J. Rourke

VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING

Restructuring Roundtable

Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast

about iso new england
About ISO New England
  • Not-for-profit corporation
    • Created in 1997 to oversee New England’s restructured electric power system; regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
  • Regional Transmission Organization
    • Independent of companies doing business in markets; no financial interest in companies participating in markets
  • Major responsibilities
    • Maintain reliable operation of the electric grid
    • Administer wholesale electricity markets
    • Plan for future system needs
long term load forecast projects demand 10 years out

+1.5%per year

Long-term Load Forecast Projects Demand10 Years Out
  • +0.9%
  • Per year

Peak Demand Forecast

2012-2021 (megawatts)

  • Baseline forecast developed with:
    • State and regional economic forecasts
    • 40 years of New England weather history
    • Other factors:
      • US Dept of Energy projections of average retail prices
      • New EE standards for household appliances
  • Annual Energy Consumption Forecast2012-2021 (gigawatt-hours)
slide5
Energy Efficiency is a Priority in New EnglandRecent state EE spending and electric energy savings, 2009-2011
  • Total NE states’ spending on EE in three-year period: $1.4B
    • Over $500 million spent in 2011
  • Total reduction in electricity use: 3,905 GWh
    • About 1,580 GWh of electricity savings in 2011
  • Total summer peak demand savings: 549 MW
    • Average annual summer peak demand reduction: 183 MW
ee in forward capacity market
EE in Forward Capacity Market
  • Annual Forward Capacity Market (FCM) auction commits resources to be available three years in the future
  • EE measures participate alongside generation
    • FCM provides a revenue stream that facilitates development of EE
  • 2012 auction procured resources obligated for 2015-2016
    • 33,455 MW total capacity that will be needed
      • ~1,500 MW is EE
      • EE in FCM has more than doubled since 2008

Energy efficiency

Emergency Generation

Active Real- Time Demand-response

energy efficiency forecast model developed in 2012
Energy-Efficiency Forecast Model Developed in 2012
  • Previously, no well-established metrics for determining how much electricity will not be consumed in the future as a result of EE measures
  • ISO-NE developed a forecast of “EE savings”—how much electric energy will not be used—beyond the 3-year FCM horizon (2016-2022)
  • Forecast model based on future state EE budgets and amount of energy savings per dollar spent
    • Data provided by states and/or EE program administrators (PA’s)
ee forecast model general assumptions
EE Forecast Model General Assumptions
  • Annual budgets provided by the public utility commissions or representatives on their behalf are used in model
    • Sources of EE funding include:
      • System Benefits Charges
      • Forward Capacity Market
      • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
      • Other
  • Production cost allowed to grow over forecast period
  • Based on the PA’s ability to spend growing EE budgets and potential for increasing production costs, ISO applied uncertainty factor to some states
summary of 2013 ee forecast
Summary of 2013 EE Forecast
  • Draft forecast results are similar to the 2012 forecast results
  • Generally, when adjusted for the impacts of EE, forecasted energy use remains flat for the region
    • Reductions in energy use in VT and RI
  • Generally, demand reductions from EE slow peak growth rate in the region
  • Program performance changes from 2012 forecast
    • Regional production cost decreased slightly, resulting in an increase in energy reductions
    • Peak-to-energy-ratios decreased slightly, resulting in smaller demand reductions from equivalent energy reductions
  • Results vary by state
regional ee forecast results 2016 to 2022
Regional EE Forecast Results(2016 to 2022)
  • Total projected spending on energy efficiency: $5.6 billion
  • Peak demand rises more slowly than with traditional forecast
    • Average annual reduction in peak demand: 188 MW
    • Total projected reduction over seven years: 1,314 MW
    • In VT, forecasted peak demand declines
  • Annual electricity consumption remains flat compared to traditional forecast
    • Average annual energy savings: 1,319 GWh
    • Total projected reduction over seven years: 9,233 GWh
    • RI and VT forecasts show declining annual electricity consumption
new england results lower peak demand growth level energy demand
New England Results: Lower Peak Demand Growth, Level Energy Demand

New England: Summer 90/10 Peak (MW)

New England: Annual Energy (GWh)

implications to the power system
Implications to the Power System
  • Timing of necessary transmission upgrades
  • Winter versus summer peak and energy impacts
  • Declining load factor; minimum load issues
  • Natural gas, nuclear, EE, DR, renewables
    • Will this be our system?
conclusions
Conclusions
  • States continue to make large investments in EE
  • ISO-NE worked successfully with stakeholders to integrate EE data into ISO’s long-term planning & forecast processes
  • EE forecast shows the states’ investment in EE is having a significant impact on electric energy consumption and peak demand
  • VT/NH planning study: analysis revised with new resources & transmission and EE forecast indicates about $260 million of previously identified transmission upgrades deferred
  • For more information see www.iso-ne.com/eefwg
energy efficiency forecast
Energy-Efficiency Forecast

State-by-State Results

connecticut energy efficiency by the numbers
Connecticut: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
  • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
    • Total spending: $337.7 million
    • Total energy saved: 1,009 GWh
      • Annual average energy saved: 336.5 GWh
    • Total peak demand savings: 127 MW
      • Annual average: 42 MW
  • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:
    • Total spending: $806 million
    • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 1,441 GWh
      • Annual average: 206 GWh
    • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 181 MW
      • Annual average: 26 MW
  • CT program administrators:
    • CT Light & Power: http://www.cl-p.com/Home
    • United Illuminating Co.: https://www.uinet.com/
maine energy efficiency by the numbers
Maine: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
  • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
    • Total spending: $53.4 million
    • Total energy saved: 282 GWh
      • Annual average: 94 GWh
    • Total peak demand savings: 32 MW
      • Annual average: 11 MW
  • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:
    • Total spending: $202.7 million
    • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 588 GWh
      • Annual average: 84 GWh
    • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 67 MW
      • Annual average: 10 MW
  • ME Program Administrators:
    • Efficiency Maine:  http://www.efficiencymaine.com/about
    • Maine Public Service Commission: http://www.maine.gov/mpuc/electricity/index.shtml
massachusetts energy efficiency by the numbers
Massachusetts: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
  • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
    • Total spending: $729.3 million
    • Total energy saved: 1,828 GWh
      • Annual average: 609.3 GWh
    • Total peak demand savings: 264 MW
      • Annual average: 88 MW
  • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022
    • Total spending: $3.5 billion
    • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 5,324 GWh
      • Annual average: 761 GWh
    • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 768 MW
      • Annual average: 120 MW
  • MA program administrators:
    • Cape Light Compact: http://www.capelightcompact.org/
    • Fitchburg Electric: http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/
    • Mass. Electric Co. (Nantucket Electric Co.): https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub
    • NSTAR: http://www.nstar.com/residential/
    • Western Mass. Electric Co.: http://www.wmeco.com/
new hampshire energy efficiency by the numbers
New Hampshire: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
  • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
    • Total spending: $58.6 million
    • Total energy saved: 191.4 GWh
      • Annual average: 63.8 GWh
    • Total peak demand savings: 32 MW
      • Annual average: 11 MW
  • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:
    • Total spending: $183.1 million
    • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 359 GWh
      • Annual average: 51 GWh
    • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 59 MW
      • Annual average: 8 MW
  • NH program administrators:
    • Public Service of New Hampshire: http://www.psnh.com/For-My-Home.aspx
    • Unitil: http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/
    • Granite State Electric Co.:  https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub
rhode island energy efficiency by the numbers
Rhode Island: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
  • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
    • Total spending: $90.2 million
    • Total energy saved: 258.8 GWh
      • Annual average: 86.2 GWh
    • Total peak demand savings: 42 MW
      • Annual average: 14 MW
  • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:
    • Total spending: $538.5 million
    • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 924 GWh
      • Annual average: 132 GWh
    • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 149 MW
      • Annual average: 21 MW
  • RI program administrator:
    • Narragansett Electric Co.: https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub
vermont energy efficiency by the numbers
Vermont: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
  • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
    • Total spending: $102.6 million
    • Total energy saved: 317 GWh
      • Annual average: 105.6 GWh
    • Total megawatts of peak saved: 46 MW
      • Annual average: 16 MW
  • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:
    • Total spending: $321.3 million
    • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 596 GWh
      • Annual average: 85 GWh
    • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 87 MW
      • Annual average: 12 MW
  • VT program administrators:
    • Efficiency Vermont:  http://www.efficiencyvermont.com/Index.aspx
    • Burlington Electric:  https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/page.php?pid=62&name=ee_incentives