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February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma

February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma. Stephen J. Rourke. VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING. Restructuring Roundtable. Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast. About ISO New England. Not-for-profit corporation

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February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma

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  1. February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma Stephen J. Rourke VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING Restructuring Roundtable Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast

  2. About ISO New England • Not-for-profit corporation • Created in 1997 to oversee New England’s restructured electric power system; regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Regional Transmission Organization • Independent of companies doing business in markets; no financial interest in companies participating in markets • Major responsibilities • Maintain reliable operation of the electric grid • Administer wholesale electricity markets • Plan for future system needs

  3. Energy-Efficiency (EE) Forecast Background

  4. +1.5%per year Long-term Load Forecast Projects Demand10 Years Out • +0.9% • Per year Peak Demand Forecast 2012-2021 (megawatts) • Baseline forecast developed with: • State and regional economic forecasts • 40 years of New England weather history • Other factors: • US Dept of Energy projections of average retail prices • New EE standards for household appliances • Annual Energy Consumption Forecast2012-2021 (gigawatt-hours)

  5. Energy Efficiency is a Priority in New EnglandRecent state EE spending and electric energy savings, 2009-2011 • Total NE states’ spending on EE in three-year period: $1.4B • Over $500 million spent in 2011 • Total reduction in electricity use: 3,905 GWh • About 1,580 GWh of electricity savings in 2011 • Total summer peak demand savings: 549 MW • Average annual summer peak demand reduction: 183 MW

  6. EE in Forward Capacity Market • Annual Forward Capacity Market (FCM) auction commits resources to be available three years in the future • EE measures participate alongside generation • FCM provides a revenue stream that facilitates development of EE • 2012 auction procured resources obligated for 2015-2016 • 33,455 MW total capacity that will be needed • ~1,500 MW is EE • EE in FCM has more than doubled since 2008 Energy efficiency Emergency Generation Active Real- Time Demand-response

  7. Energy-Efficiency Forecast Model Developed in 2012 • Previously, no well-established metrics for determining how much electricity will not be consumed in the future as a result of EE measures • ISO-NE developed a forecast of “EE savings”—how much electric energy will not be used—beyond the 3-year FCM horizon (2016-2022) • Forecast model based on future state EE budgets and amount of energy savings per dollar spent • Data provided by states and/or EE program administrators (PA’s)

  8. EE Forecast Model General Assumptions • Annual budgets provided by the public utility commissions or representatives on their behalf are used in model • Sources of EE funding include: • System Benefits Charges • Forward Capacity Market • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative • Other • Production cost allowed to grow over forecast period • Based on the PA’s ability to spend growing EE budgets and potential for increasing production costs, ISO applied uncertainty factor to some states

  9. 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast Regional Results

  10. Summary of 2013 EE Forecast • Draft forecast results are similar to the 2012 forecast results • Generally, when adjusted for the impacts of EE, forecasted energy use remains flat for the region • Reductions in energy use in VT and RI • Generally, demand reductions from EE slow peak growth rate in the region • Program performance changes from 2012 forecast • Regional production cost decreased slightly, resulting in an increase in energy reductions • Peak-to-energy-ratios decreased slightly, resulting in smaller demand reductions from equivalent energy reductions • Results vary by state

  11. Regional EE Forecast Results(2016 to 2022) • Total projected spending on energy efficiency: $5.6 billion • Peak demand rises more slowly than with traditional forecast • Average annual reduction in peak demand: 188 MW • Total projected reduction over seven years: 1,314 MW • In VT, forecasted peak demand declines • Annual electricity consumption remains flat compared to traditional forecast • Average annual energy savings: 1,319 GWh • Total projected reduction over seven years: 9,233 GWh • RI and VT forecasts show declining annual electricity consumption

  12. Energy and Summer Peak EE Forecast Data 12

  13. New England Results: Lower Peak Demand Growth, Level Energy Demand New England: Summer 90/10 Peak (MW) New England: Annual Energy (GWh)

  14. EE Measures Focus on Lighting

  15. New England Winter Peaks Trending Down

  16. Implications to the Power System • Timing of necessary transmission upgrades • Winter versus summer peak and energy impacts • Declining load factor; minimum load issues • Natural gas, nuclear, EE, DR, renewables • Will this be our system?

  17. Conclusions • States continue to make large investments in EE • ISO-NE worked successfully with stakeholders to integrate EE data into ISO’s long-term planning & forecast processes • EE forecast shows the states’ investment in EE is having a significant impact on electric energy consumption and peak demand • VT/NH planning study: analysis revised with new resources & transmission and EE forecast indicates about $260 million of previously identified transmission upgrades deferred • For more information see www.iso-ne.com/eefwg

  18. Energy-Efficiency Forecast State-by-State Results

  19. Connecticut: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: • Total spending: $337.7 million • Total energy saved: 1,009 GWh • Annual average energy saved: 336.5 GWh • Total peak demand savings: 127 MW • Annual average: 42 MW • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: • Total spending: $806 million • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 1,441 GWh • Annual average: 206 GWh • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 181 MW • Annual average: 26 MW • CT program administrators: • CT Light & Power: http://www.cl-p.com/Home • United Illuminating Co.: https://www.uinet.com/

  20. Connecticut Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

  21. Maine: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: • Total spending: $53.4 million • Total energy saved: 282 GWh • Annual average: 94 GWh • Total peak demand savings: 32 MW • Annual average: 11 MW • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: • Total spending: $202.7 million • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 588 GWh • Annual average: 84 GWh • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 67 MW • Annual average: 10 MW • ME Program Administrators: • Efficiency Maine:  http://www.efficiencymaine.com/about • Maine Public Service Commission: http://www.maine.gov/mpuc/electricity/index.shtml

  22. Maine Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

  23. Massachusetts: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: • Total spending: $729.3 million • Total energy saved: 1,828 GWh • Annual average: 609.3 GWh • Total peak demand savings: 264 MW • Annual average: 88 MW • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022 • Total spending: $3.5 billion • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 5,324 GWh • Annual average: 761 GWh • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 768 MW • Annual average: 120 MW • MA program administrators: • Cape Light Compact: http://www.capelightcompact.org/ • Fitchburg Electric: http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/ • Mass. Electric Co. (Nantucket Electric Co.): https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub • NSTAR: http://www.nstar.com/residential/ • Western Mass. Electric Co.: http://www.wmeco.com/

  24. Massachusetts Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

  25. New Hampshire: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: • Total spending: $58.6 million • Total energy saved: 191.4 GWh • Annual average: 63.8 GWh • Total peak demand savings: 32 MW • Annual average: 11 MW • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: • Total spending: $183.1 million • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 359 GWh • Annual average: 51 GWh • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 59 MW • Annual average: 8 MW • NH program administrators: • Public Service of New Hampshire: http://www.psnh.com/For-My-Home.aspx • Unitil: http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/ • Granite State Electric Co.:  https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub

  26. New Hampshire Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

  27. Rhode Island: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: • Total spending: $90.2 million • Total energy saved: 258.8 GWh • Annual average: 86.2 GWh • Total peak demand savings: 42 MW • Annual average: 14 MW • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: • Total spending: $538.5 million • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 924 GWh • Annual average: 132 GWh • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 149 MW • Annual average: 21 MW • RI program administrator: • Narragansett Electric Co.: https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub

  28. Rhode Island Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

  29. Vermont: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers • Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: • Total spending: $102.6 million • Total energy saved: 317 GWh • Annual average: 105.6 GWh • Total megawatts of peak saved: 46 MW • Annual average: 16 MW • Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: • Total spending: $321.3 million • Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 596 GWh • Annual average: 85 GWh • Projected total reduction in peak demand: 87 MW • Annual average: 12 MW • VT program administrators: • Efficiency Vermont:  http://www.efficiencyvermont.com/Index.aspx • Burlington Electric:  https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/page.php?pid=62&name=ee_incentives

  30. Vermont Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

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