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Leadership 0510 Leadership in Uncertain Times Peter Dickens, MTS Director: Tyndale Centre for Leadership pdickens@tyndale.ca. Heifetz on Leadership. Clarity of the Problem. Clear. Unclear. Type I Technical Work. Clear and Available. Clarity of the Solution. Unclear and Unavailable.

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Leadership 0510Leadership in Uncertain TimesPeter Dickens, MTSDirector: Tyndale Centre for Leadershippdickens@tyndale.ca

heifetz on leadership
Heifetz on Leadership

Clarity of the Problem

Clear

Unclear

Type I

Technical Work

Clear and Available

Clarity of the Solution

Unclear and Unavailable

management and leadership
Management and Leadership

Leaders……

  • Set direction
  • Align people with the vision
  • Motivate and and inspire

Managers……

  • Plan and budget
  • Organize and staff
  • Provide controls and solve problems

Kotter, J. (2001) What Leaders Really Do. HBR On Point

heifetz on leadership1
Heifetz on Leadership

Clarity of the Problem

Clear

Unclear

Type I

Technical Work

Type IV

Wishful Thinking Dogma

Clear and Available

Clarity of the Solution

Type II

Technical/ Adaptive Work

Type III

Highly Adaptive Work

Unclear and Unavailable

reflections on certainty
Reflections on certainty

Many of us develop partial understandings that we see as complete. The more certain we feel of them, the more they limit our freedom to think. We may have spent years building up these certainties, and beneath the fear of letting go of them is the fear of having nothing underneath.

Peter Senge et al. The Dance of Change

residual uncertainty
Residual Uncertainty
  • If you want to develop better strategic choices under conditions of uncertainty, you have to understand the uncertainty you face
  • Certainty is not binary
  • Residual uncertainty: What’s left after the best possible analysis to separate the known from the unknowable

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

levels 1 uncertainty
Levels 1 Uncertainty
  • Relatively clear view of the future
  • One or two obvious options

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

leadership strategies
Leadership Strategies
  • Traditional
      • SWOT
      • Benchmarking
      • Competency-based

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

summary of industrial leadership
Summary of “Industrial” Leadership
  • Framed by level 1 uncertainty
  • These industrial age leadership theories have been:
  • management-oriented
  • Focused on the leader
  • goal-achievement-dominated
  • male-oriented
  • utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective
  • Rationalistic
        • Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century
level 2 uncertainty
Level 2 Uncertainty
  • Relatively clear view of the future
  • Alternate futures
      • Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
      • One will occur

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

level 2 leadership strategies
Level 2 Leadership Strategies
  • Traditional
  • Qualitative decision analysis

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

leadership as process
Leadership as Process

Leadership isprocess whereby an individual influences a group of individuals to achieve a common goal.

Peter Northouse. Leadership

level 3 uncertainty
Level 3 Uncertainty
  • Relatively clear view of the future
  • Alternate futures
  • Range of futures
    • Not mutually exclusive

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

level 3 leadership strategies
Level 3 Leadership Strategies
  • Traditional
  • Qualitative decision analysis
  • Decision tree/cost-benefit analysis

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

level 3 strategy
Level 3 Strategy
  • Diversification
  • Insurance
  • A decision on where you will place your bets
level 4 uncertainty
Level 4 Uncertainty
  • Relatively clear view of the future
  • Alternate futures
  • Range of futures
  • True ambiguity
    • The future is unknown and unknowable

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

peter vaill permanent white water
Peter Vaill: Permanent White Water
  • Conditions are full of surprises
  • Complex systems tend to produce novel problems
  • Conditions feature events that are “messy” and
  • Events are often very costly
emerging norms re uncertainty
Emerging Norms re: Uncertainty
  • Constant change
  • Collaborative focus
  • Possibility – orientation
  • Complex systems
  • Self-organizing agents
self organizing systems
Self-organizing Systems
  • Innumerable variables determine outcomes
  • Small changes can change everything
  • The whole emerges out from the parts
  • Direction is determined by emergence and the participation of many people
  • Individual or systems behavior is unknowable, unpredictable, and uncontrollable
leadership strategies1
Leadership Strategies
  • Traditional
  • Qualitative decision analysis
  • Decision tree/cost benefit analysis
  • Work backwards

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

working backwards
Working Backwards?
  • Start with a strategy
  • Is it aligned with our mission and values?
  • What do we have to believe about the future to support a defined strategy?
  • Do we believe that is likely?
  • Are we willing to bet on it?
emerging leadership theory
Emerging Leadership Theory

Leadership is not a position. To my knowledge, a promotion never made anyone a leader. Leadership is a fiduciary calling.

Max DePree. Leadership is an Art.

focus on intent
Focus on Intent

Leadership is an influence relationship among leaders and followers who intend real changes that reflect their mutual purposes.

Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

transformative leadership
Transformative Leadership

Transformative leadership occurs when one or more people engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivations and morality.

Burns. Transformative Leadership

leadership as service
Leadership as Service

Leadership begins with the natural feeling that one wants to serve, to serve first .... The best test is: Do those served grow as persons; do they, while being served, become healthier, wiser, freer, more autonomous, or more likely to become servants themselves?

Bob Greenleaf. Servant Leadership.

leadership and action
Leadership and Action

Leadership means initiating action towards shared values and purpose.

Dick Couto

leadership in self organizing systems
Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems
  • Define the boundaries
  • Invite diversity
  • Create transforming exchanges
  • Serve the system
reflection
Reflection
  • What does this mean for your area of ministry?
  • What would you have to embrace?
  • What would you have to let go of?