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Does energy bring the Baltic Sea region states together?

Does energy bring the Baltic Sea region states together?. Toms Rostoks University of Latvia toms.rostoks@lu.lv. Research project. Funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, Latvian Institute of International Affairs and Friedrich Ebert Foundation

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Does energy bring the Baltic Sea region states together?

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  1. Does energy bring the Baltic Sea region states together? Toms Rostoks University of Latvia toms.rostoks@lu.lv

  2. Research project • Funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, Latvian Institute of International Affairs and Friedrich Ebert Foundation • Implemented by researchers and research institutes from all BSR states, except Denmark

  3. Research question • Do countries’ choices with regard to energy issues pull them together or pull them apart?  Is there more or less cooperation among the BSR countries because of energy concerns?

  4. Each author aims at analyzing: • Particular energy mix of his/her country • National energy strategy of his/her country • Main actors involved in the energy sector • Regional implications of particular country’s energy choices – more energy cooperation or less energy cooperation?

  5. Background factors • Energy influences and is influenced by a set of other aspects of interstate relations that already exist in the BSR: history; large/small states; energy importers/exporters; established democracies/new democracies/ non-democracies; outside actors/state actors/subregional actors; etc. • Perceptions are important

  6. Preliminary findings • Study not finished yet, but there are some tentative results • Reporting broad tendencies rather than conclusions on particular country cases

  7. Some findings • Consumer and producer countries are inevitably pulled together, but pull factors can run contrary to general trends in interstate relations • Consumer and producer countries are inevitably pulled apart by their differences in interest with regard to supply and demand issues

  8. Some findings (cont.) • Major energy exporters in the BSR – Norway and Russia – have their own concerns over energy supplies, usage and investment • Some BSR countries do not seem to have clearly defined energy policies and strategies • Investment in energy (extraction and transportation) infrastructure is necessary

  9. Some findings (cont.) • Politicization and complexity of energy sector allows various actors to come to contradictory conclusions on almost anything • Element of competition for best energy deals is quite strong as all countries would like to acquire some degree of control and self-sufficiency

  10. Some findings (cont.) • There is a danger that competition and politicization result in a “deal” that is far worse than optimal (“stag hunt problem”) • Climate change and CO2 emission considerations are important drivers of several BSR countries energy strategies

  11. Some findings (cont.) • In order to balance the asymmetric relationship with the energy exporting countries, consumer countries try to be “more than consumers” • Baltic “energy island” is a very specific problem, and Baltic states’ aspirations do not extend much further than building interconnections with the neighbouring countries

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