Tracking Development Progress in the Pacific facts, fiction and some follies Gerald Haberkorn Manager, Statistics for

1. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community 2011 International Conference on MDG Statistics Manila, 19 – 21 October 2011 Tracking Development Progress in the Pacific facts, fiction and some follies Gerald Haberkorn Manager, Statistics for Development Programme Secretariat of the Pacific Community Noumea, New Caledonia geraldh@spc.int; www.spc.int/sdp

2. CNMI Guam Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia Palau Papua New Guinea Nauru Kiribati Tuvalu SolomonIslands Tokelau CookIslands Wallis etFutuna Samoa AmSamoa Fiji Vanuatu French Polynesia Niue New Caledonia Tonga PitcairnIslands Pacific Island Countries and Territories

3. One of hundreds

4. and another one

5. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Structure of presentation • Sea of islands – multiple diversities • Tracking MDG progress in the Pacific, 2011 • Opinions versus facts – some data management follies • Reflecting on way forward

6. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community A sea of islands – multiple diversities • 15 countries, 7 territories • Population, 2011: 10 million (PNG 6,9 million -> Pitcairn 48 people) • 1 country 2/3 of Pacific population <---> 8 countries < 20,000 pop • 3 sub-regions: Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia • Substantial diversity: bio-physical environment, economies, demography, cultural and political • 0.1% of world population – 1/3 of world’s known and documented languages (700) • Considerable similarities: • Small size of domestic markets • Heavy reliance on imports • Isolation/transport challenges and costs • Dominance of public sectors • Weak manufacturing base and high cost structure

7. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community A sea of islands – multiple diversities • Clearly reflected in 2011 MDG tracking report • It also illustrates the danger of regional aggregation of values, with one country biasing regional picture. • If aggregates are required, might be beneficial to work along the lines of established three sub-regions (see next slide)

8. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community

9. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Opinions versus facts – some data management follies • Accurate assessment of MDG developments over time hampered by both lack and abundance of specific MDG indicators, as well as data communication and data management hiccups. • Current scenarios and challenges with Pacific Island Countries’ MDG reporting • parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator, • use of estimates when national data are available, • references to data unavailability where information does exist • misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made.

10. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Parallel reporting facilitated by abundance, not simply because of lacking MDG related data and information

11. i. Parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator

12. ii. Use of estimates when national data are available

13. iii. References to data unavailability where information exists

14. iv. Misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made. Two key challenges (illustrated with reference to IMR) Conceptual: choice of meaningful targets (focus on halving or reducing something by 2/3 not always conducive to accurately reflect true achievements) Fiji (national data): 17 (1990) –> 15 (2009) 2015 target: unlikely to achieve two-third reduction (2015) and get to 5.7 (going by developments since 1990). Positive view: 15/1000 = below 20/1000 level and reflects small improvement since 1990; Critical view: not much change since 1990, despite considerable investments in MCH/EPI/nutrition/water and sanitation over last two decades. Pragmatic view: examine IMR’s two components, to ascertain developments in neonatal/post-neonatal mortality.

15. iv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made. Two key challenges – examples, IMR Vanuatu (national data): 45 (1990) –> 21 (2009) 2015 target: on track to achieve two-third reduction (2015) and get to 15.

16. iv. misinformed assertions about development status of countries, including the lack of development progress made. Two key challenges – examples, IMR 2. Methodological: choice of realistic 1990 benchmark. … too many indicators, not enough agreement ….

17. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Table 6: Comparison of Infant Mortality rate, 1990 baseline (or nearest year)

18. Revisiting Fiji and Vanuatu achievements

19. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management • Statistics collected (sourced) at national level; • Indicators derived at national (with assistance from regional and other statistical TA providers) and international levels; • Indicators compiled and published nationally, regionally, internationally. • Data management increases in complexity from statistical collection to translation into information, involving diverse players with diverse interest: • NSOs doing their job, to the best of their ability, complying with their mandate to produce “official statistics”; • International statistical stakeholders doing their job, complying with their mandate(s), to assist in producing comparable information. • Somewhere, somehow, something, it seems, has gone astray with communication and coordination

20. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management What tangible contribution can we make? • Ten year Pacific Statistics Strategy, 2011 – 2020 • Key focus on harmonization of statistical concepts, classifications, systems of collections to provide core set of comparable, quality and timely statistics across key sectors – political mandate by Pacific Leaders in pacific plan • Revamp/develop administrative databases in key sectors to facilitate regular statistical compilations, to improve sustainability of collecting/dissemination key core statistics on a more real-time basis • Phase 1 (2011 – 2012) priorities in economic statistics , vital statistics and civil registration, health and education information systems:

21. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management What tangible contribution can we make? • National Minimum Development Indicator database • Comprises of 192 indicators ( at the moment) across ten thematic areas, comprising all population-based MDG indicators • Phase 1 completed, with sourcing of 67% of 2,880 data points; • Phase 2 about to start with • Countries reviewing their NMDI files; • SPC to review agency comments plus include some additional indicators from key technical and financial partners (so far Pacific-based UNDAF group , UNFPA, UNICEF, WHO, ILO; FAO; AusAID and ADB) • Phase 3: gradual incorporation of indicators pertaining to critical cross-cutting themes such as climate change and food security;

22. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management What tangible contribution can we make? • National Minimum Development Indicator database • NMDI database, once Phase 2 completed in early 2012, can provide the go-to place for Pacific island countries MDG indicators; • Provides good basis to contribute to improved statistical communication , coordination and data management regards MDGs

23. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Vanuatu - PD.5.2.1 – Current Primary School Enrolment (MDG.2.1)

24. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Tonga - H.4.3 – Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (MDG.5.3) Tonga - H.4.4 – Adolescent Birth Rate (Teenage Fertility Rate) (MDG.5.4) Tonga - H.4.5 – Antenatal care coverage (% of women who had at least one antenatal session with a skilled provider) (MDG 5.5)

25. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management What tangible contribution can we make? • Improved regional statistical governance • Pacific Statistics Steering Committee, comprising of 6 Government statisticians and four representatives of key technical (UNFPA as chair of UNDAF; University of the South Pacific) financial partners (AusAID and ADB, representing bilateral and multilateral partners) meets twice yearly to monitor implementation of Ten Year Pacific Statistics strategy • PSSC provides forum for regular dialogue between national, regional and international statistical stakeholders

26. Statistics for Development ProgrammeSecretariat of the Pacific Community Where to from here? Improve communication, coordination, data management What tangible developments would we like to see? • UNSD consolidation/expansion of MDG lab • Recognizes importance of national data/official statistics • Adds value to UNSD MDG country database, by publishing international and national MDG indicators side-by-side Regional Dialogue on MDG statistics in 2012 • SPC acknowledges UNSD’s proposal to collaborate in convening a Pacific Regional MDG forum involving national and international statistical stakeholders to address Pacific-specific data management challenges pertaining to MDG statistics • Provides timely and welcome opportunity to move forward in improvingcommunication, coordination, data management regards MDGs. Thank you